Long Play Updates
Amphenol - APH - cls: 36.24 change: -0.42 stop: 34.69
The profit taking in APH was relatively mid on Monday. Yet we're concerned because the three-day candlestick pattern looks like a bearish reversal, which might negate Friday's bullish breakout. Wait for a bounce before considering new bullish positions. Our target is the $39.75-40.00 range.
Picked on June 10 at $35.74
Aracruz Celulose - ARA - cls: 66.05 chg: -0.08 stop: 59.90
The lack of true profit taking in ARA looks like relative strength to us. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to think about taking some profits here. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $68.00-70.00 range.
Picked on June 03 at $62.00
Cal-Maine Foods - CALM - cls: 15.63 chg: +0.83 stop: 13.49
The rally in CALM continues. Shares rose another 5.6% and did so on very strong volume. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. If you missed buying the stock this morning you may want to wait for a dip. Our target is the $17.40-17.50 range. FYI: More conservative traders may want to exit near $16.50.
Picked on June 17 at $14.80
CB Richard Ellis - CBG - cls: 39.29 chg: -0.11 stop: 37.49
The bulls may have a fight on their hands with CBG. The stock tried to rally this morning but failed at the $40 level. Traders bought the dip at $38.43 but the afternoon rebound began to fade in the last 30 minutes. We are suggesting a trigger at $40.15, which is above potential round-number resistance at $40.00. If triggered at $40.15 our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $52 target.
Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
China Netcom - CN - cls: 55.28 chg: -0.32 stop: 51.90
The Chinese market soared on Monday with the Shanghai index up 2.9%. Shares of CN failed to participate and we don't know whether to be thankful or concerned. Many of the Chinese related stocks gapped higher today in reaction to the rally in China. If CN had gapped open higher it would have been a less than attractive entry point for new positions. Thankfully, CN did not gap higher. On the other hand the stock failed to rally, which is a warning sign for would-be bulls in this stock. Overall the trend continues to look bullish but readers might want to be patient and wait to see if CN sees any additional profit taking. A dip and bounce near $54.00 would be an attractive entry for new positions. The P&F chart points to a $73 target. We're aiming for the $59.50-60.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim for the highs near $62.50.
Picked on June 17 at $55.60
Columbia Sportswear - COLM - cls: 68.63 chg: +0.09 stop: 65.95
We do not see any changes from our weekend new play description for COLM. Friday's rally over short-term resistance near $68 and its 10-dma looks like a new entry point for longs. We'll place our stop under $66 and target a rally into the $73.50-75.00 range. The P&F chart is very bullish with an $89 target.
Picked on June 17 at $68.54
EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 17.79 change: +0.44 stop: 16.24
EMC turned in a strong session and its fourth gain in a row with Monday's 2.5% rally. More conservative traders may want to start taking some money off the table or preparing to exit soon as EMC nears potential resistance near $18.00. Our target is the $18.50-20.00 range.
Picked on May 27 at $16.46
Group 1 Auto - GPI - cls: 41.70 chg: -0.26 stop: 39.95
GPI experienced a little bit of profit taking on Monday but traders bought the dip near its 10 and 50-dma. We see this as another entry point to buy the stock. This is somewhat aggressive since GPI has clear resistance in the $43.00-43.50 zone. However, if the markets continue to rally then we believe GPI will breakout. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative high over $43.00 or $43.50 first. Our target is the $47.00-48.00 range just under the descending 200-dma. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish.
Picked on June 17 at $41.96
Raytheon - RTN - close: 55.74 chg: -0.80 stop: 55.19 *new*
RTN under performed the markets and its peers on Monday with a 1.4% decline. The MACD on the daily chart has produced another sell signal and the indicator has been relatively reliable for RTN over the past several months. More conservative traders may want to exit immediately to cut their losses. We strongly considered closing the play right here. However, RTN does still have some support near $55.25 so we're going to tighten our stop loss to $55.19. More aggressive traders may want to leave their stop under $55.00, which is additional support.
Picked on June 03 at $56.17
St. Mary Land - SM - cls: 39.67 chg: +0.16 stop: 36.95
Unrest in Nigeria and concerns about supply disruptions sent crude oil over $69 a barrel. Shares of SM continue to rally but the stock is nearing possible resistance at the $40.00 level. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $48 target.
Picked on June 04 at $38.51
Encore Wire Corp. - WIRE - cls: 29.80 chg: -0.20 stop: 28.49
WIRE is apparently still stuck in the $29-30 range. We are growing more cautious the longer shares fail to breakout higher. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop loss closer to the $29.00 level. We'd wait for a move past $30.45 before considering new positions. The Point & Figure chart suggests a $46 price target. We are targeting the $32.50-33.00 range.
Picked on May 27 at $29.26
Short Play Updates
AMB Properties - AMB - cls: 54.91 change: -1.42 stop: 58.26
REIT stocks turned lower today and AMB sank 2.5%. This is a new entry point for shorts. More conservative traders might want to think about lowering their stop loss toward Friday's high near $57.00. Our target for AMB is the $52.00-50.00 range.
Picked on June 11 at $ 56.21
Bolt Tech. - BTJ - cls: 41.25 chg: +0.93 stop: 42.11
It's not looking good for the bears in BTJ. Shares rose another 2.3% and closed above its 50-dma. We strongly suggest that more conservative traders cut their losses here. Readers will also want to consider adjusting their stop loss toward $41.75. We're not suggesting new positions with BTJ above $40.00.
Picked on June 11 at $ 39.16
Broadcom - BRCM - cls: 30.63 change: -0.69 stop: 31.65
BRCM has produced a failed rally near $31.50, which has been resistance for the past few weeks. Aggressive traders might want to consider new shorts right here. We're going to stick to our plan and wait for a breakdown under support at $30.00. Our suggested trigger is at $29.75. If triggered our target is the $27.00-26.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid July earnings report. FYI: One of the larger risks with shorting BRCM will be any sort of headline-making news events in the legal battle between BRCM and QCOM.
Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Continental Airlines - CAL - cls: 32.90 chg: -0.19 stop: 36.26
Another strong day for oil helped pull CAL lower. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid July earnings report.
Picked on June 12 at $34.10
CIT Group - CIT - cls: 57.61 chg: -0.47 stop: 60.05
CIT continues to under perform. The stock produced a bearish failed rally under its 50-dma this morning and then closed with a 0.8% loss. We do note that sellers couldn't push CIT past the 100-dma but the stock looks poised for more weakness. Our target is the $55.25-55.00 range. We are suggesting a stop loss at $60.05 but more conservative traders might want to use $59.65.
Picked on June 12 at $58.17
Healthcare REIT - HCN - cls: 40.79 chg: -0.53 stop: 43.01
REITs were a big pocket of weakness in the market today and HCN lost 1.28%. The move looks like a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern and shares look set to breakdown toward new lows this week. There is potential support near $40.00 but our target is the $38.50-38.00 range. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss.
Picked on June 11 at $ 41.73
Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 43.50 chg: -1.46 stop: 46.26
Shares of MNST plunged lower this morning, breaking down under support near $44 and closing near its lows for the session. The move looks very bearish and readers can use it as another entry point for shorts. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 range.
Picked on June 12 at $44.41
Staples Inc. - SPLS - cls: 24.99 chg: +0.00 stop: 25.55
There was no change in shares of SPLS on Monday. Nor do we see any changes from our weekend comments on the stock. Friday's rally was a warning sign for the bears. However, we're not willing to abandon ship just yet. The Friday rally failed under its descending 50-dma. Plus, the stock's strength failed to breakout over the trendline of lower highs. We are going to adjust our stop loss to $25.55. Traders can choose to look for a new decline under $24.50 or under $23.80 before considering new shorts.
Picked on May 27 at $24.40
U S T Inc. - UST - close: 52.10 chg: -1.02 stop: 55.01
UST continues to show relative weakness. The stock lost 1.9% and closed near short-term support around $52.00. We're not suggesting new positions. UST has already hit our target in the $52.60-52.50 range. Now we're aiming for the $50.50-50.00 zone.
Picked on May 23 at $54.96
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays