Long Play Updates
Amphenol - APH - cls: 35.76 change: -0.13 stop: 34.69
We remain cautious with APH. The longer-term trend is still bullish and Thursday's rebound looks like a new entry point for bullish positions. However, with the market sinking sharply on Friday, we would prefer to see more strength before initiating new positions. Our target is the $39.75-40.00 range.
Picked on June 10 at $35.74
Cal-Maine Foods - CALM - cls: 15.36 chg: -0.03 stop: 13.49
CALM actually held up relatively well during the market's widespread sell-off on Friday. However, shares still look short-term overbought and poised to dip toward $15.00-14.50 zone. The big volume on Friday was due to CALM being added to the Russell 3000 index. We'd wait and see how CALM reacts next week before considering new positions. Our target is the $17.40-17.50 range but more conservative traders may want to exit near $16.50.
Picked on June 17 at $14.80
CB Richard Ellis - CBG - cls: 37.76 chg: -1.00 stop: 37.49
It was a rough week for CBG. The stock produced a failed rally at resistance near $40.00 and headed lower from there. The larger trend still looks positive for CBG but if we don't see a decent bounce in the next couple of days we'll drop it as a bullish candidate. We'll stick to our plan and use a trigger at $40.15 as our suggested entry point. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $52 target.
Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
China Netcom - CN - cls: 57.80 chg: -0.66 stop: 53.95*new*
Chinese ADRs turned in a strong week. Shares of CN rose almost 4% and hit new five-month highs. CN looks short-term overbought now and due for a dip. Friday's session produced a bearish engulfing-style candlestick, which normally acts as a bearish reversal. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but we are adjusting our stop loss to $53.95. Broken resistance near $54.00 and $55.00 in addition to the rising 10-dma near $55.00 should all offer some support. The P&F chart points to a $73 target. We're aiming for the $59.50-60.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim for the highs near $62.50.
Picked on June 17 at $55.60
Columbia Sportswear - COLM - cls: 67.64 chg: -0.52 stop: 65.95
The trading in COLM over the last three days is starting to look bearish. The larger trend is still positive so we'll wait and watch for a bounce. At the moment we're expecting a pull back toward the $66.00 level and its 50-dma. A rebound above $66 could be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $73.50-75.00 range. The P&F chart is very bullish with an $89 target.
Picked on June 17 at $68.54
EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 17.95 change: -0.04 stop: 16.46
EMC held up very well during Friday's market sell-off. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. The trend is bullish but EMC looks short-term overbought and due for a dip. More conservative traders may want to lock in a profit right now. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $18.50-20.00 range.
Picked on May 27 at $16.46
Group 1 Auto - GPI - cls: 41.41 chg: -0.27 stop: 39.95
GPI has spent a week consolidating sideways. While the lack of follow through higher might be disappointing shares have tested the $41.00 level as short-term support more than once. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops. Another bounce near $41 could be used as an entry point while conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative high over $43.00 or $43.50. Our target is the $47.00-48.00 range just under the descending 200-dma. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish.
Picked on June 17 at $41.96
St. Mary Land - SM - cls: 37.88 chg: -0.81 stop: 36.95
The profit taking in SM has been pretty sharp this past week. Shares are down more than 5% from its June 19th high. We don't see anything specific to account for the weakness. The stock is certainly under performing the OIX oil index. We see the drop under $38.00 as a warning sign. If the stock doesn't rebound early this week more conservative traders may want to consider an early exit to cut their losses. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $51 target.
Picked on June 04 at $38.51
Encore Wire Corp. - WIRE - cls: 30.48 chg: -0.50 stop: 28.85*new*
WIRE spiked lower at the open but bulls defended the stock near $30.00 all day. This is a case where broken resistance did act as new support. Thus we can use the pull back as a new entry point to buy shares. However, we'll also try and reduce our risk by raising the stop loss to $28.85. We are targeting the $32.50-33.00 range. Aggressive traders could aim higher.
Picked on May 27 at $29.26
Short Play Updates
AMB Properties - AMB - cls: 53.65 change: -0.46 stop: 56.51*new*
AMB failed to see any follow through higher after Thursday's big intraday rebound. While that is good news for the bears we're not convinced the bounce is over. The stock is still short-term oversold and due for a bigger bounce. The 10-dma near $55.15 should act as overhead resistance. Therefore we're adjusting our stop loss to $56.51. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target for AMB is the $52.00-50.00 range.
Picked on June 11 at $ 56.21
Broadcom - BRCM - cls: 30.52 change: -0.13 stop: 31.65
BRCM has produced another bearish failed rally pattern. It seems that investors are not feeling very bullish about the latest twist in the BRCM-QCOM battle. On Friday it was announced that the ITC had denied QCOM's request to stay the ITC's recent decision to ban importation of mobile phones with QCOM's latest chips in them. This should be great news for BRCM but the stock just isn't moving on it. We are sticking to our plan and waiting for a breakdown. Our suggested trigger to short the stock is at $29.75. This way BRCM has to breakdown under the May lows. If triggered our target is the $27.00-26.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid July earnings report. FYI: One of the larger risks with shorting BRCM will be any sort of headline-making news events in the legal battle between BRCM and QCOM.
Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Continental Airlines - CAL - cls: 33.97 chg: -0.54 stop: 36.26
Crude oil was creeping higher on Friday and that put extra pressure on the airlines. The XAL index slipped 0.9% while CAL dropped 1.5%. Volume was light for CAL but that might just be summer trading. It would appear that the stock's recent oversold bounce has stalled out under the $35.00 level, which is good news for the bears. Readers can use Friday's weakness as a new entry point. However, if you look at the intraday charts it looks like waiting for a breakdown under $33.60 would be a better entry point since it would also be a breakdown of a very short-term head-and-shoulders pattern. You can see it on a 5 or 10-minute chart. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid July earnings report.
Picked on June 12 at $34.10
CIT Group - CIT - cls: 55.78 chg: -1.45 stop: 60.05
CIT sank to a new six-week low after a failed rally under its 10-dma on Friday. Shares slid 2.5% on above average volume. The stock is nearing our target in the $55.25-55.00 range. We are adjusting our stop loss to $59.01. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.
Picked on June 12 at $58.17
Healthcare REIT - HCN - cls: 39.52 chg: -0.43 stop: 42.01
There was no follow through on HCN's big intraday bounce from Thursday. This is good news for the shorts but we're not convinced the bounce is over yet. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $38.50-38.00 range.
Picked on June 11 at $ 41.73
Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 41.34 chg: -0.66 stop: 44.55*new*
MNST turned in a rough week with the stock losing about 8%. Shares continue to look bearish but they're now short-term oversold and due for a bounce. We're not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to lock in a gain right here. We are lowering our stop loss to $44.55. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 range.
Picked on June 12 at $44.41
Staples Inc. - SPLS - cls: 24.28 chg: -0.69 stop: 25.55
Office-supply stocks all closed lower. OMX lost 3%, ODP shed 2.8%, and SPLS slipped 2.7%. Volume on SPLS' drop was more than double the norm, which is definitely bearish. We didn't see any specific news to account for the industry's weakness. We do want to point out that the drop back under $24.50 looks like a new entry point for shorts. Yet more conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative low under $23.80 before initiating shorts. Our target is the $22.00 mark.
Picked on May 27 at $24.40
U S T Inc. - UST - close: 51.85 chg: -0.26 stop: 54.51*new*
There is no change from our previous comments on UST except that we're adjusting the stop loss to $54.51. The trend is still bearish although we're not suggesting new positions. UST has already hit our target in the $52.60-52.50 range. Now we're aiming for the $50.50-50.00 zone.
Picked on May 23 at $54.96
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays