Long Play Updates
Amphenol - APH - cls: 35.62 change: -0.14 stop: 34.69
We do not see any changes from our weekend comments for APH. We remain cautious with APH. The longer-term trend is still bullish and Thursday's rebound looks like a new entry point for bullish positions. However, with the market sinking sharply on Friday, we would prefer to see more strength before initiating new positions. Our target is the $39.75-40.00 range.
Picked on June 10 at $35.74
Cal-Maine Foods - CALM - cls: 15.29 chg: -0.07 stop: 13.49
It looks like the rally in CALM is running into trouble. The stock produced a bearish failed rally under the $16.00 level today. The $15.00 level has been holding as short-term support but we wouldn't expect it to last if the market indices really turned lower. We'll try and reduce our risk by raising the stop loss to $13.90. Our target is the $17.40-17.50 range but more conservative traders may want to exit near $16.50.
Picked on June 17 at $14.80
CB Richard Ellis - CBG - cls: 36.78 chg: -0.98 stop: 37.49
The picture is growing more negative for CBG. The stock plunged toward its 50-dma this afternoon. If we don't see some sort of bounce tomorrow we'll drop it as a bullish candidate. Currently we're suggesting a trigger at $40.15 to go long the stock. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $52 target.
Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
China Netcom - CN - cls: 58.10 chg: +0.30 stop: 53.95
The Chinese markets traded sharply lower today (-1.7%) yet CN managed to post a 0.5% gain. We are encouraged by the relative strength in CN but we wouldn't put a lot of faith in it. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops even higher. We're not suggesting new positions. The P&F chart points to a $73 target. We're aiming for the $59.50-60.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim for the highs near $62.50.
Picked on June 17 at $55.60
Columbia Sportswear - COLM - cls: 67.59 chg: -0.05 stop: 65.95
We do not see any changes from our weekend update on COLM. The trading in COLM over the last three days is starting to look bearish. The larger trend is still positive so we'll wait and watch for a bounce. At the moment we're expecting a pull back toward the $66.00 level and its 50-dma. A rebound above $66 could be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $73.50-75.00 range. The P&F chart is very bullish with an $89 target.
Picked on June 17 at $68.54
EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 17.65 change: -0.30 stop: 16.46
We are not suggesting new positions in EMC. Readers might want to bail out now and try to lock in a gain. If not consider raising your stop loss toward $17.00 or maybe even $17.45. The $17.50 level has been holding as short-term support the last few days. Our target is the $18.50-20.00 range.
Picked on May 27 at $16.46
Group 1 Auto - GPI - cls: 41.35 chg: -0.06 stop: 39.95
There is no change from our weekend update on GPI. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops. Another bounce near $41 could be used as an entry point while conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative high over $43.00 or $43.50. Our target is the $47.00-48.00 range just under the descending 200-dma. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish.
Picked on June 17 at $41.96
JA Solar - JASO - cls: 30.37 change: +0.64 stop: 27.45
JASO displayed relative strength. The stock hit an intraday high of $31.84 but eventually pared its gains to close with a 2.1% rise. More conservative traders could tighten their stop toward $28.00. Our target is the $33.00-33.50 range. The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a quadruple-top breakout buy signal and a $47 target. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.
Picked on June 24 at $29.73
St. Mary Land - SM - cls: 38.00 chg: +0.12 stop: 36.95
The bounce in SM today almost looks like a new bullish entry point. Look for a move over $38.30 or $38.50 as a chance to buy the stock again. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $51 target.
Picked on June 04 at $38.51
Verasun Energy - VSE - cls: 13.16 chg: -0.73 stop: 12.89
Thank goodness for triggers. There was no follow through on Friday's story-induced rally. Shares of VSE gapped down and plunged throughout the session to close with a 5.2% loss. More aggressive traders might want consider trying to buy a bounce near $13.00. We'll wait for our trigger at $14.55. More conservative traders may even want to wait for a rise past $15.00 before buying the stock. We are going to use a wide (aggressive) stop loss under the recent low. Our target is the $17.75-18.00 range, just under the simple 200-dma. We'll be watching the 50-dma and 100-dma as potential resistance. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish.
Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Encore Wire Corp. - WIRE - cls: 30.75 chg: +0.27 stop: 28.85
Caution! Even though WIRE displayed relative strength with a 0.8% gain the stock also produced another bearish failed rally pattern. Odds look good for a dip back toward $30.00 soon. We're not suggesting new positions tomorrow. We are targeting the $32.50-33.00 range. Aggressive traders could aim higher.
Picked on May 27 at $29.26
Short Play Updates
AMB Properties - AMB - cls: 52.55 change: -1.10 stop: 56.51
AMB is still sinking. Shares lost 2% on rising volume and they're quickly nearing our target in the $52.00-50.00 range. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.
Picked on June 11 at $ 56.21
Broadcom - BRCM - cls: 29.80 change: -0.72 stop: 31.65
Breakdown alert! BRCM broke through support near $30.00 and closed at a new relative low. We were suggesting a trigger to short the stock at $29.75 so the play is now open. Our target is the $27.00-26.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid July earnings report. FYI: One of the larger risks with shorting BRCM will be any sort of headline-making news events in the legal battle between BRCM and QCOM.
Picked on June 25 at $29.75
Continental Airlines - CAL - cls: 33.26 chg: -0.71 stop: 36.26
Trading in CAL looks pretty bearish today. The stock lost 2%, produced another failed rally and what appears to be a bearish engulfing candlestick. However, before you consider backing up the truck to short this stock, consider two things. First, crude oil was slipping today. If oil continues to slide it will pull airlines higher. Second, the selling in CAL stopped almost exactly near the bottom of its June 19th gap. The trend is bearish but you might want to use a tighter stop loss. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid July earnings report.
Picked on June 12 at $34.10
Healthcare REIT - HCN - cls: 38.98 chg: -0.54 stop: 42.01
HCN lost 1.3% and closed at a new relative low. The stock is nearing our target in the $38.50-38.00 range. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.
Picked on June 11 at $ 41.73
Staples Inc. - SPLS - cls: 24.03 chg: -0.25 stop: 25.55
SPLS is still sinking on big volume, which is usually bearish. Unfortunately, shares rebounded from their intraday low at $23.70. The trend remains bearish but this is usually where SPLS tries to produce an oversold bounce. Our target is the $22.00 mark.
Picked on May 27 at $24.40
U S T Inc. - UST - close: 51.87 chg: +0.02 stop: 54.51
There is no change from our previous comments on UST. The trend is still bearish although we're not suggesting new positions. UST has already hit our target in the $52.60-52.50 range. Now we're aiming for the $50.50-50.00 zone.
Picked on May 23 at $54.96
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays
CIT Group - CIT - cls: 55.35 chg: -0.43 stop: 60.05
Target achieved. CIT dipped to an intraday low of $54.97. Our target was the $55.25-55.00 range. If you did not exit be careful. CIT appears to have support near $54.00 and its 200-dma near $54.70.
Picked on June 12 at $58.17
Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 40.69 chg: -0.65 stop: 44.55
Target achieved. MNST continued to sink, posting its sixth decline in a row. The intraday low was $40.45. Our target was the $40.50-40.00 range.
Picked on June 12 at $44.41