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Long Play Updates

Amphenol - APH - cls: 35.13 change: -0.49 stop: 34.69

Bulls are still having a hard time with APH although this afternoon traders did buy the dip near last week's low. The long-term trend is bullish but short-term the technicals are decaying pretty quickly. More conservative traders may want to cut their losses now. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on June 10 at $35.74
Change since picked: - 0.61
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Cal-Maine Foods - CALM - cls: 15.42 chg: +0.13 stop: 13.90*new*

CALM is holding up relatively well. Shares have been stuck in the $15-16 range over the last few days. We're going to adjust our stop loss to $13.90. If you're feeling cautious you could raise your stop further toward $15.00 and the 10-dma. Our target is the $17.40-17.50 range but more conservative traders may want to exit near $16.50.

Picked on June 17 at $14.80
Change since picked: + 0.65
Earnings Date 07/05/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 129 thousand

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China Netcom - CN - cls: 56.93 chg: -1.17 stop: 53.95

CN continues to see some profit taking today with a 2% decline. However, it might be worth noting that after the morning drop to $56.67 shares spent the rest of the day trading sideways between $56.67 and $57.00. The rising 10-dma should offer some short-term support in addition to support in the $54-55 zone. We're not suggesting new positions. The P&F chart points to a $73 target. We're aiming for the $59.50-60.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim for the highs near $62.50.

Picked on June 17 at $55.60
Change since picked: + 1.33
Earnings Date 08/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 95 thousand

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Columbia Sportswear - COLM - cls: 67.52 chg: -0.07 stop: 65.95

There is still no change from our previous comments on COLM. The trading in COLM over the last four days is starting to look bearish. The larger trend is still positive so we'll wait and watch for a bounce. At the moment we're expecting a pull back toward the $66.00 level and its 50-dma. A rebound above $66 could be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $73.50-75.00 range. The P&F chart is very bullish with an $89 target.

Picked on June 17 at $68.54
Change since picked: - 1.02
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 219 thousand

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EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 17.52 change: -0.13 stop: 16.46

EMC is starting to look more vulnerable. Traders might want to consider an early exit here to lock in some sort of gain. If you choose not to exit then consider raising your stop loss toward $16.75 or $17.00. We're leaving our stop at $16.46 for now. Our target is the $18.50-20.00 range.

Picked on May 27 at $16.46
Change since picked: + 1.26
Earnings Date 07/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 26.6 million

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Group 1 Auto - GPI - cls: 40.95 chg: -0.40 stop: 39.95

It might be time to give up on GPI too. The consolidation is narrowing and shares have closed under short-term support near $41.00. More conservative traders may want to exit early right here to cut their losses. We're expecting a dip toward round-number support near $40.00 soon.

Picked on June 17 at $41.96
Change since picked: - 1.01
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 600 thousand

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JA Solar - JASO - cls: 31.40 change: +1.03 stop: 27.45

This morning an analyst firm raised their price target on JASO from $32 to $38 and the news fueled a 3.3% rally in the stock price. We're not suggesting new positions at current levels. Our target is the $33.00-33.50 range. The intraday high today was $32.63. The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a quadruple-top breakout buy signal and a $47 target. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on June 24 at $29.73
Change since picked: + 1.67
Earnings Date 08/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Verasun Energy - VSE - cls: 13.25 chg: +0.09 stop: 12.89

It looks like VSE is trying to bounce near support in the $12.90-13.00 area. The low today was $13.07. More aggressive traders might want consider trying to buy a bounce near $13.00. We'll wait for our trigger at $14.55. More conservative traders may even want to wait for a rise past $15.00 before buying the stock. We are going to use a wide (aggressive) stop loss under the recent low. Our target is the $17.75-18.00 range, just under the simple 200-dma. We'll be watching the 50-dma and 100-dma as potential resistance. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish.

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 878 thousand

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Encore Wire Corp. - WIRE - cls: 30.00 chg: -0.75 stop: 29.26*new*

The trading in WIRE was bearish today. Yesterday shares produced a bearish failed rally and today it produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. More conservative traders may want to exit early now. We're adjusting our stop loss to $29.26 (breakeven). We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We are targeting the $32.50-33.00 range. Aggressive traders could aim higher.

Picked on May 27 at $29.26
Change since picked: + 0.74
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 383 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Broadcom - BRCM - cls: 29.73 change: -0.07 stop: 31.65

Technically the trend in BRCM with its recent breakdown from the trading range is bearish. However, we remain wary. There was a big intraday spike higher after some talk that a couple of analysts were defending BRCM here. Shares remain under what should be resistance now at the $30.00 level but we're suggesting new positions with caution as we don't want to be caught in a bear trap. Our target is the $27.00-26.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid July earnings report. FYI: One of the larger risks with shorting BRCM will be any sort of headline-making news events in the legal battle between BRCM and QCOM.

Picked on June 25 at $29.75
Change since picked: - 0.02
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.1 million

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Continental Airlines - CAL - cls: 32.63 chg: -0.63 stop: 35.26*new*

Weakness in CAL today was encouraging. Normally when crude oil turns lower the airlines catch a bid. Instead CAL lost 1.89% while oil fell about 2%. The question now is whether or not investors will buy the dip near the June lows around $32.50. We are adjusting our stop loss to $35.26. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid July earnings report.

Picked on June 12 at $34.10
Change since picked: - 1.47
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.3 million

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Healthcare REIT - HCN - cls: 39.21 chg: +0.23 stop: 42.01

HCN came within 14 cents of hitting our target today. Shares dipped to $38.64 before bouncing back. We're not suggesting new positions but readers can watch for the $40.00 level to act as short-term overhead resistance. Our target is the $38.50-38.00 range.

Picked on June 11 at $ 41.73
Change since picked: - 2.52
Earnings Date 08/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 741 thousand

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Staples Inc. - SPLS - cls: 23.96 chg: -0.07 stop: 25.55

SPLS continues to see a lot of volume as the bulls and bears battle for control around support in the $23.75-24.00 zone. Today's trading was bearish but the bulls aren't giving up yet. Readers might want to tighten their stops toward the $25.00 level as the 50-dma sinks. Our target is the $22.00 mark.

Picked on May 27 at $24.40
Change since picked: - 0.44
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million

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U S T Inc. - UST - close: 52.66 chg: +0.79 stop: 54.51

UST caught an oversold bounce today. Odds are the move was fueled by strength in larger rival Altria (MO). There is no change from our previous comments on UST. The trend is still bearish although we're not suggesting new positions. UST has already hit our target in the $52.60-52.50 range. Now we're aiming for the $50.50-50.00 zone.

Picked on May 23 at $54.96
Change since picked: - 2.30
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 965 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

CB Richard Ellis - CBG - cls: 36.24 chg: -0.54 stop: 37.49

We are giving up on CBG as a bullish candidate. The stock has been struggling since its three failed rallies at the $40.00 level. Today's decline confirms the breakdown under the 50-dma. It was our strategy to buy the stock at $40.15, which never occurred.

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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St. Mary Land - SM - cls: 36.16 chg: -1.84 stop: 36.95

Oil service stocks experienced some profit taking thanks in part to a 2% decline in crude oil futures. Unfortunately, SM was hammered for a 4.8% decline and on big volume. The stock broke down under support near $37.00 and its simple 200-dma. The strange thing is that we can't find any news to account for the big sell-off today. Our stop loss was at $36.95.

Picked on June 04 at $38.51
Change since picked: - 2.35
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 539 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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