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Long Play Updates

Columbia Sportswear - COLM - cls: 67.62 chg: -1.31 stop: 66.99

COLM is still trading inside its $67.00-70.00 trading range but today's 1.9% decline is bad news. The stock closed under technical support at its 50-dma and on above average volume. More conservative traders may want to exit early now to cut their losses. We are planning to exit at the closing bell on Thursday, July 26th, to avoid holding over earnings. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on June 17 at $68.54
Change since picked: - 0.92
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 219 thousand

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FreightCar America - RAIL - cls: 52.46 chg: -0.65 stop: 51.95 *new*

Tomorrow is our last day for the play on RAIL. The plan is to exit at the closing bell on July 25th to avoid holding over the earnings on July 26th. We had a typo yesterday. We meant to say the pull back should not have been a surprise. The $52.00 level should be support so we're inching up our stop loss to $51.95.

Picked on July 15 at $52.73
Change since picked: - 0.27
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 381 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Boston Scientific - BSX - cls: 14.37 change: -0.33 stop: 15.51

There was no follow through on BSX's bounce from Monday's low. The stock sank 2.2% and closed at a new relative low. We have two targets listed. Our conservative target is the $14.05-14.00 range since BSX could have support near the March 2007 lows. Our more aggressive target is the $13.55-13.50 zone.

Picked on July 22 at $14.79
Change since picked: - 0.42
Earnings Date 07/20/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.0 million

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Group 1 Automotive - GPI - cls: 37.50 change: -0.21 stop: 40.26

We would have expected more weakness from GPI today but shares managed an intraday bounce. Volume was pretty high. Someone could have tried buying the dip at GPI's 200-week moving average near $37.50. The trend continues to look negative here. We only have four trading days since we plan to exit ahead of the earnings report on July 31st. Our target is the $35.15-35.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The Point & Figure chart has a relatively new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $33 target.

Picked on July 22 at $38.22
Change since picked: - 0.72
Earnings Date 07/31/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 512 thousand

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Mattel - MAT - cls: 24.33 change: -0.23 stop: 26.15

MAT continues to sink but we were a little bit concerned by the rise in volume on the afternoon bounce from its lows. Don't be surprised if MAT rebound back toward the $25.00 level, which should now be overhead resistance. Our target is the $22.05-22.00 range.

Picked on July 22 at $24.68
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 07/16/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 thousand

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UnitedHealth - UNH - cls: 51.00 change: -0.17 stop: 52.05

UNH is inching lower but we're still on the sidelines. If UNH breaks down under support at the $50.00 level we want to be ready. We're suggesting a trigger to short the stock at $49.95. If triggered our target is the $45.25-45.00 range. The P&F chart is already bearish and points to a $46 target.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.5 million

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Energy Sector SPDR - XLE - cls: 72.15 chg: -2.15 stop: 75.01

Energy-related stocks were unable to avoid the market sell-off. The XLE lost 2.89% today but is holding precariously near the $72 level. We don't really expect a correction in oil and oil stocks for another couple of weeks but if it starts early we're ready. Right now we're suggesting a trigger to short the XLE at $69.75. We honestly don't expect to be triggered until early August so we'll make adjustments to our entry point and stop loss as necessary.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million
 

Closed Long Plays

GulfMark - GLF - cls: 52.43 change: -2.42 stop: 53.74

Oil stocks were unable to escape the market-wide profit taking on Tuesday. Shares of GLF plunged 4.4% and the stock hit our stop loss at $53.74. The next level of support looks like the $50.00 mark.

Picked on July 09 at $54.55
Change since picked: - 2.12
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 284 thousand

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Intl. Flavors - IFF - cls: 50.88 change: -1.21 stop: 51.45

We have been defensive on IFF the last couple of days. Today's market weakness pushed shares under support at the 50-dma. IFF hit our stop loss at $51.45. The next level of support looks like the $50.00 mark bolstered by the 100-dma.

Picked on July 12 at $53.89
Change since picked: - 3.01
Earnings Date 08/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 534 thousand

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Bankrate - RATE - cls: 48.17 chg: -2.02 stop: 48.99

Mortgage giant Countrywide (CFC) announced earnings today and had some very negative things to day about the housing market and lending environment. This sent shares of RATE to a 4% decline and breakdown under support at the $50.00 level. RATE hit our stop loss at $48.99.

Picked on July 15 at $51.96
Change since picked: - 3.79
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 331 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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