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Short Play Updates

Saul Centers - BFS - cls: 43.22 change: -0.54 stop: 45.31

Our new short play on BFS continues to sink. The stock lost 1.2% on strong volume. Shares closed at a new relative low. We are suggesting shorts with BFS under $45.00 (preferably under $44.50). Our target is the $40.15-40.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the latest June data put short interest at 4.8% of the company's 10.7 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and a very small float, which could be a recipe for a short squeeze. Trade carefully!

Picked on July 25 at $43.76
Change since picked: - 0.54
Earnings Date 08/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 78 thousand


Mattel - MAT - cls: 23.90 change: -0.36 stop: 26.15

MAT managed to close at a new relative low and under potential support at the $24.00 level. Yet the session was not with out some volatility. There was a late afternoon spike to $24.81. However, if you look at the high for the day it will probably say "$26.00", which is actually a bad tick. We remain bearish and shares look poised to move lower. Our target is the $22.05-22.00 range.

Picked on July 22 at $24.68
Change since picked: - 0.78
Earnings Date 07/16/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 thousand


Steel Dynamics - STLD - cls: 42.13 change: -2.80 stop: 48.15

STLD experienced some volatility this morning and looking at the daily chart you can see a failed rally near $45.00 in addition to the 50 and 100-dma. The stock eventually hit an intraday low of $41.00 but pared its losses to close with a 6.2% loss. Volume was very big on the sell-off. Any oversold bounce should encounter some resistance in the $45 zone and more conservative traders may want to lower their stop loss. Our target is the $40.25-40.00 range, where STLD should find support near $40.00 and its rising 200-dma.

Picked on July 25 at $44.93
Change since picked: - 2.80
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million


UnitedHealth - UNH - cls: 50.21 change: -1.00 stop: 52.05

Our short play on UNH is now open. The market's weakness helped push UNH under round-number support at the $50.00 mark. The intraday low was $49.80. Our suggested trigger to short UNH was at $49.95. Now that the play is open our target is the $45.25-45.00 range. We would suggest readers wait and watch for a failed rally under $51.00 or a new relative low under $49.80 before initiating new positions. The P&F chart is already bearish and points to a $46 target.

Picked on July 26 at $49.95
Change since picked: + 0.26
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.5 million


Energy Sector SPDR - XLE - cls: 70.54 chg: -2.76 stop: 75.01

Be careful here! The market's big drop today was definitely influenced by some heavy profit taking in the oil and energy stocks. The XLE lost 3.7% but the energy-sector SPDR hit an intraday low of $69.18. Our suggested trigger to short it was at $69.75. We were not expecting to be triggered for another week or two. This looks like a premature dip and the big bounce back above support near $70 and its 50-dma looks dangerous if you're short. We have a very wide stop loss at 75.01. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. The $73.00 or $72.00 levels look like potential short-term resistance. Our target is the $65.25-65.00 range. We're not suggesting new positions until we see XLE back under $69.50.

Picked on July 26 at $69.75
Change since picked: + 0.79
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million

Closed Long Plays

Columbia Sportswear - COLM - cls: 66.10 chg: -1.91 stop: 66.99

COLM couldn't hold up under the market's landslide lower. The stock broke support near $67.00 hitting our stop loss at $66.99. After the closing bell COLM reported earnings and beat estimates by nine cents but we didn't see any significant after-hours trading in the stock.

Picked on June 17 at $68.54
Change since picked: - 2.44
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 219 thousand

Closed Short Plays

Boston Scientific - BSX - cls: 13.64 change: -0.43 stop: 15.51

Target achieved. The sell-off in BSX continues to look ugly. The stock sank to a new multi-year low at $13.41 before bouncing back to a 3% loss. Volume during today's decline was huge. Our first target was the $14.05-14.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target, was the $13.55-13.50 range.

Picked on July 22 at $14.79
Change since picked: - 1.15
Earnings Date 07/20/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.0 million


Group 1 Automotive - GPI - cls: 35.55 change: -1.72 stop: 40.26

Target achieved. Today's market weakness sent shares of GPI to an intraday low of $35.06. Our target was the $35.15-35.00 range. Volume on today's 4.6% decline was more than double the daily average.

Picked on July 22 at $38.22
Change since picked: - 2.67
Earnings Date 07/31/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 512 thousand

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