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Long Play Updates

Affymetrix - AFFX - cls: 25.14 chg: -0.92 stop: 25.45

Biotech stock AFFX retreated from its recent test of resistance. Currently the plan is to buy a breakout over resistance near $27.00 and its 100-dma. Our suggested trigger to go long is at $27.15. However, we are considering an alternative entry point. We expect the markets to be weak on Monday morning. AFFX might consolidate back toward the bottom of its trading range near $24.00. If we see AFFX produce a decent bounce near $24.00 we might jump in on the rebound with a stop loss around $23.85. If triggered our target is the $29.75-30.00 range. We do expect some resistance in the $28.70-29.00 zone given the big gap down in April 2007. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish. Meanwhile the latest data puts short interest at a very high 22% of AFFX's 64.4 million-share float. A breakout over $27.00 could produce a short-squeeze.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 979 thousand


Starbucks - SBUX - cls: 26.92 change: -0.20 stop: 26.49

SBUX's failure to bounce on Friday really cools our enthusiasm to be long the stock. We only have three days left for this aggressive, higher-risk play. The plan is to exit at the closing bell on August 1st to avoid holding over the earnings report. We do expect some weakness on Monday morning so we're looking for SBUX to dip toward $26.50 before bouncing. Our target is the $29.90-30.00 range, which looks too optimistic at this point.

Picked on July 26 at $27.43
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 15.3 million


Varian Inc. - VARI - cls: 60.38 chg: +0.18 stop: 56.90

VARI continued to show relative strength. The stock broke out over resistance in the $60.00-60.50 range and hit new six-year highs. Volume came in strong on the rally, which is positive. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock was at $60.55. Now that the play is open our target is the $64.85-65.00 range. Should VARI see any profit taking the $58-59 zone looks like short-term support although technically broken resistance at $60 should now be support.

Picked on July 27 at $60.55
Change since picked: - 0.17
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 207 thousand

Short Play Updates

Saul Centers - BFS - cls: 42.32 change: -0.90 stop: 45.31

BFS continues to sink. The stock produced another bearish failed rally under its 10-dma and sank to a 2% loss on heavy volume. Shares closed at their low for the day and at a new low for the year. Our target is the $40.15-40.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the latest June data put short interest at 4.8% of the company's 10.7 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and a very small float, which could be a recipe for a short squeeze. Trade carefully!

Picked on July 25 at $43.76
Change since picked: - 1.44
Earnings Date 08/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 78 thousand


Mattel - MAT - cls: 23.48 change: -0.42 stop: 25.55 *new*

MAT lost another 1.7% on Friday but shares actually hit an intraday low of $22.92. We are adjusting our stop loss down to $25.55. Shares look poised to roll over again on Monday. Our target is the $22.05-22.00 range.

Picked on July 22 at $24.68
Change since picked: - 0.78
Earnings Date 07/16/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 thousand


Steel Dynamics - STLD - cls: 41.59 change: -0.54 stop: 46.15*new*

Hmm... we're either experiencing data problems with our charts on STLD or the stock opened late on Friday around 10:06 a.m. We did not see any news that might explain the late open or the gap higher. Eventually the early strength faded and shares lost another 1.2%. Please note that we're adjusting our exit target to $40.50-40.00. We are expecting market weakness on Monday morning and STLD could hit our target on Monday. We are adjusting the stop loss to $46.15.

Picked on July 25 at $44.93
Change since picked: - 3.34
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million


UnitedHealth - UNH - cls: 49.13 change: -1.08 stop: 52.05

Healthcare-related stocks were not except from Friday's market sell-off. The HMO index lost 1.9% and the IUX insurance index fell almost 2.2%. Shares of HMO broke down under $50.00 again and closed with a 2.15% decline. The move back under $50.00 (or under $49.80) is a new bearish entry point for shorts. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 range. The P&F chart is already bearish and points to a $46 target.

Picked on July 26 at $49.95
Change since picked: - 0.82
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.5 million


Energy Sector SPDR - XLE - cls: 68.50 chg: -2.04 stop: 75.01

We are surprised by the relative weakness in the energy stocks, especially with crude oil rising toward record highs. We were expecting the XLE to rebound on Friday but instead the energy SPDR plunged back under round-number support at $70.00 and under technical support at the 50-dma. Volume was very strong on the 2.89% decline. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. The $73.00 or $72.00 levels look like potential short-term resistance. Our target is the $65.25-65.00 range.

Picked on July 26 at $69.75
Change since picked: - 1.25
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million

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