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Long Play Updates

Affymetrix - AFFX - cls: 25.08 chg: -0.06 stop: 25.45

There is no change from our weekend comments. AFFX is still trading inside its $24-27 trading range. AFFX might consolidate back toward the bottom of its trading range near $24.00. If we see AFFX produce a decent bounce near $24.00 we might jump in on the rebound with a stop loss around $23.85. If triggered our target is the $29.75-30.00 range. We do expect some resistance in the $28.70-29.00 zone given the big gap down in April 2007. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish. Meanwhile the latest data puts short interest at a very high 22% of AFFX's 64.4 million-share float. A breakout over $27.00 could produce a short-squeeze.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 979 thousand

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Gateway Inc. - GTW - cls: 1.43 change: +0.01 stop: 1.19

We were expecting more market weakness this morning and expected GTW to dip toward support near $1.30. Thus far neither has occurred. However, odds look good that GTW will continue lower. GTW bounced near $1.30 in the past. We're suggesting a trigger to buy GTW in the $1.35-1.30 zone. We'll use a stop at $1.19 but more conservative traders could put their stop closer to $1.25 or $1.30. If triggered in the $1.35-1.30 zone our target is the $1.55-1.60 range.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.000
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.6 million

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JP Morgan - JPM - cls: 44.75 change: +0.52 stop: 42.45

FFinancials managed a bounce today. JPM closed up with a 1.1% gain on strong volume. We were suggesting investors buy JPM in the $43.70-43.50 zone. The intraday low was $43.61 so the play is now open. Our target is the $47.00-47.50 range. We're placing our stop at $42.45 but more conservative traders could definitely try using a tighter stop loss closer to $43.00 or $43.50.

Picked on July 30 at $43.70br> Change since picked: + 1.05
Earnings Date 10/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17.8 million

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VVarian Inc. - VARI - cls: 60.20 chg: -0.18 stop: 56.90

VARI spent Monday's session churning sideways. We're still bullish on the stock above $60.00 but it looks like the stock might dip toward $59 or $58 short-term. Our target is the $64.85-65.00 range.

Picked on July 27 at $60.55br> Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 207 thousand
 

SShort Play Updates

Agilent Tech - A - cls: 38.09 change: +0.45 stop: 39.05

Traders bought the dip in A this morning near $37.25. We would wait and watch for the rebound to roll over in the $38.50-39.00 zone as a new entry point. The 50-dma overhead should be resistance. We're suggesting shorts here with a target in the $35.50-35.00 zone. The rising 200-dma near $35.00 could be technical support.

Picked on July 29 at $37.64
Change since picked: + 0.45
Earnings Date 08/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Saul Centers - BFS - cls: 42.79 change: +0.47 stop: 45.31

The market rebound inspired a 1.1% bounce in BFS but the trend is still negative. Our target is the $40.15-40.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the latest June data put short interest at 4.8% of the company's 10.7 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and a very small float, which could be a recipe for a short squeeze. Trade carefully!

Picked on July 25 at $43.76
Change since picked: - 0.97
Earnings Date 08/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 78 thousand

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Mattel - MAT - cls: 23.35 change: -0.13 stop: 25.55

MAT continues to under perform. The stock lost 0.5% versus a widespread market bounce. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $22.05-22.00 range.

Picked on July 22 at $24.68
Change since picked: - 0.91
Earnings Date 07/16/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 thousand

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Motorola - MOT - cls: 16.99 change: +0.04 stop: 18.11

MOT was upgraded this morning but the news failed to inspire any strength in the stock price. Shares saw a couple of rally attempts but they all failed. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We are suggesting shorts with a target in the $15.10-14.50 range. If the stock can bounce shares should find overhead resistance in the $17.50-18.00 region. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower since the P&F chart points to a $9.00 target.

Picked on July 29 at $16.95
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 10/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 25.7 million

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - cls: 42.36 change: +0.77 stop: 46.15

STLD saw an oversold bounce today with its 1.8% gain. The bounce may not be over. Shares should find overhead resistance in the $44.00-45.00 zone. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 range.

Picked on July 25 at $44.93
Change since picked: - 2.57
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million

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UnitedHealth - UNH - cls: 48.94 change: -0.19 stop: 52.05

This looks like another entry point for shorts on UNH. Shares produced another failed rally pattern this morning and under performed the wider market. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 range. The P&F chart is already bearish and points to a $46 target.

Picked on July 26 at $49.95
Change since picked: - 1.01
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.5 million

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Energy Sector SPDR - XLE - cls: 69.68 chg: +1.18 stop: 75.01

Traders need to be careful here. We are expecting a very significant correction in oil and oil stocks in August. It may have already started but we suspect it's still several days away. In the mean time oil stocks, at least most of them, still have generally bullish patterns and investors might be tempted to buy the recent pull back, especially with crude oil near all-time highs. A failed rally in the XLE near $70 or under $72.00 could be used as a new entry point but don't get too enthusiastic here. We would consider this an aggressive play until we see crude oil begin to reverse.

Picked on July 26 at $69.75
Change since picked: - 0.07
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Starbucks - SBUX - cls: 26.98 change: +0.05 stop: 26.49

SBUX continued to sink on Monday and hit our stop loss at $26.49. We would keep an eye on it for any post-earnings reaction following the August 1st earnings report.

Picked on July 26 at $27.43
Change since picked: - 0.45
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 15.3 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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