Long Play Updates
Affymetrix - AFFX - cls: 24.38 chg: -0.70 stop: 25.45
AFFX continues to sink toward the bottom of its $27-24 trading range. If we see AFFX produce a decent bounce near $24.00 we might jump in on the rebound with a stop loss around $23.85. Currently our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $27.15. If triggered our target is the $29.75-30.00 range. We do expect some resistance in the $28.70-29.00 zone given the big gap down in April 2007. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish. Meanwhile the latest data puts short interest at a very high 22% of AFFX's 64.4 million-share float. A breakout over $27.00 could produce a short-squeeze.
Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gateway Inc. - GTW - cls: 1.42 change: -0.01 stop: 1.19
We are surprised by GTW's strength today. Bulls are defending it near $1.42. However, we're expecting more market weakness tomorrow and shares are poised to move lower. We're suggesting a trigger to buy GTW in the $1.35-1.30 zone. We'll use a stop at $1.19 but more conservative traders could put their stop closer to $1.25 or $1.30. If triggered in the $1.35-1.30 zone our target is the $1.55-1.60 range. FYI: Don't forget that this is a high-risk, speculative play.
Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
JP Morgan - JPM - cls: 44.01 change: -0.74 stop: 42.45
Reversal alert! Warning - JPM has produced a failed rally under $46.00 and its 10-dma and in the process has created a bearish reversal. Shares appear headed right back toward support near $43.50. More conservative traders might want to reduce their risk and tighten their stops toward the $43.50 region.
Picked on July 30 at $43.70
Varian Inc. - VARI - cls: 60.14 chg: -0.06 stop: 56.90
VARI is weathering the market's storm pretty well although shares did produce something of a failed rally today. We would expect a dip back toward $59 or $58 soon. Our target is the $64.85-65.00 range.
Picked on July 27 at $60.55
Short Play Updates
Agilent Tech - A - cls: 38.15 change: +0.06 stop: 39.05
Shares of A posted a gain today but the action looks bearish. The stock produced a couple of failed rallies near $38.50 and the afternoon pull back looks like a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $35.50-35.00 range. The rising 200-dma near $35.00 could be technical support.
Picked on July 29 at $37.64
Saul Centers - BFS - cls: 43.37 change: +0.58 stop: 45.31
We were surprised to see BFS' relative strength today but the overall trend remains bearish. The stock should find overhead resistance near $44.00 and again near $45.00. Our target is the $40.15-40.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the latest June data put short interest at 4.8% of the company's 10.7 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and a very small float, which could be a recipe for a short squeeze. Trade carefully!
Picked on July 25 at $43.76
Mattel - MAT - cls: 22.91 change: -0.42 stop: 25.05 *new*
MAT has sunk to another new relative low today. Volume continues to come in above average. We're adjusting our stop loss to $25.05. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $22.05-22.00 range.
Picked on July 22 at $24.68
Motorola - MOT - cls: 16.99 change: +0.02 stop: 18.11
It looks like MOT closed unchanged on the session but most services are quoting a 2-cent gain. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. We are suggesting shorts with a target in the $15.10-14.50 range. If the stock can bounce shares should find overhead resistance in the $17.50-18.00 region. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower since the P&F chart points to a $9.00 target.
Picked on July 29 at $16.95
Steel Dynamics - STLD - cls: 41.93 change: -0.43 stop: 46.15
STLD gapped open higher this morning but the rally failed under $44.00. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 range.
Picked on July 25 at $44.93
UnitedHealth - UNH - cls: 48.43 change: -0.51 stop: 52.05
UNH continues to sink posting its fourth loss in a row. The stock might have some minor support near $48.00 so don't be surprised to see an oversold bounce soon. Broken support near $50 and $51 should now be new resistance. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 range. The P&F chart is already bearish and points to a $46 target.
Picked on July 26 at $49.95
Energy Sector SPDR - XLE - cls: 69.00 chg: -0.68 stop: 75.01
The energy sector produced a bearish reversal with today's failed rally and bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. This is somewhat surprising considering the new all-time high in crude oil. The XLE looks poised for more weakness tomorrow and today's move looks like another entry point for shorts. Our target is the $65.25-65.00 range. We do have a very wide stop loss and more conservative traders may want to lower their risk.
Picked on July 26 at $69.75
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays