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Long Play Updates

Affymetrix - AFFX - cls: 24.38 chg: -0.70 stop: 25.45

AFFX continues to sink toward the bottom of its $27-24 trading range. If we see AFFX produce a decent bounce near $24.00 we might jump in on the rebound with a stop loss around $23.85. Currently our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $27.15. If triggered our target is the $29.75-30.00 range. We do expect some resistance in the $28.70-29.00 zone given the big gap down in April 2007. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish. Meanwhile the latest data puts short interest at a very high 22% of AFFX's 64.4 million-share float. A breakout over $27.00 could produce a short-squeeze.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 979 thousand

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Gateway Inc. - GTW - cls: 1.42 change: -0.01 stop: 1.19

We are surprised by GTW's strength today. Bulls are defending it near $1.42. However, we're expecting more market weakness tomorrow and shares are poised to move lower. We're suggesting a trigger to buy GTW in the $1.35-1.30 zone. We'll use a stop at $1.19 but more conservative traders could put their stop closer to $1.25 or $1.30. If triggered in the $1.35-1.30 zone our target is the $1.55-1.60 range. FYI: Don't forget that this is a high-risk, speculative play.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.6 million

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JP Morgan - JPM - cls: 44.01 change: -0.74 stop: 42.45

Reversal alert! Warning - JPM has produced a failed rally under $46.00 and its 10-dma and in the process has created a bearish reversal. Shares appear headed right back toward support near $43.50. More conservative traders might want to reduce their risk and tighten their stops toward the $43.50 region.

Picked on July 30 at $43.70
Change since picked: + 0.31
Earnings Date 10/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17.8 million

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Varian Inc. - VARI - cls: 60.14 chg: -0.06 stop: 56.90

VARI is weathering the market's storm pretty well although shares did produce something of a failed rally today. We would expect a dip back toward $59 or $58 soon. Our target is the $64.85-65.00 range.

Picked on July 27 at $60.55
Change since picked: - 0.41
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 207 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Agilent Tech - A - cls: 38.15 change: +0.06 stop: 39.05

Shares of A posted a gain today but the action looks bearish. The stock produced a couple of failed rallies near $38.50 and the afternoon pull back looks like a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $35.50-35.00 range. The rising 200-dma near $35.00 could be technical support.

Picked on July 29 at $37.64
Change since picked: + 0.51
Earnings Date 08/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Saul Centers - BFS - cls: 43.37 change: +0.58 stop: 45.31

We were surprised to see BFS' relative strength today but the overall trend remains bearish. The stock should find overhead resistance near $44.00 and again near $45.00. Our target is the $40.15-40.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the latest June data put short interest at 4.8% of the company's 10.7 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and a very small float, which could be a recipe for a short squeeze. Trade carefully!

Picked on July 25 at $43.76
Change since picked: - 0.39
Earnings Date 08/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 78 thousand

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Mattel - MAT - cls: 22.91 change: -0.42 stop: 25.05 *new*

MAT has sunk to another new relative low today. Volume continues to come in above average. We're adjusting our stop loss to $25.05. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $22.05-22.00 range.

Picked on July 22 at $24.68
Change since picked: - 1.33
Earnings Date 07/16/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 thousand

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Motorola - MOT - cls: 16.99 change: +0.02 stop: 18.11

It looks like MOT closed unchanged on the session but most services are quoting a 2-cent gain. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. We are suggesting shorts with a target in the $15.10-14.50 range. If the stock can bounce shares should find overhead resistance in the $17.50-18.00 region. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower since the P&F chart points to a $9.00 target.

Picked on July 29 at $16.95
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 10/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 25.7 million

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - cls: 41.93 change: -0.43 stop: 46.15

STLD gapped open higher this morning but the rally failed under $44.00. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 range.

Picked on July 25 at $44.93
Change since picked: - 3.00
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million

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UnitedHealth - UNH - cls: 48.43 change: -0.51 stop: 52.05

UNH continues to sink posting its fourth loss in a row. The stock might have some minor support near $48.00 so don't be surprised to see an oversold bounce soon. Broken support near $50 and $51 should now be new resistance. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 range. The P&F chart is already bearish and points to a $46 target.

Picked on July 26 at $49.95
Change since picked: - 1.52
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.5 million

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Energy Sector SPDR - XLE - cls: 69.00 chg: -0.68 stop: 75.01

The energy sector produced a bearish reversal with today's failed rally and bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. This is somewhat surprising considering the new all-time high in crude oil. The XLE looks poised for more weakness tomorrow and today's move looks like another entry point for shorts. Our target is the $65.25-65.00 range. We do have a very wide stop loss and more conservative traders may want to lower their risk.

Picked on July 26 at $69.75
Change since picked: - 0.75
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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