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Long Play Updates

Affymetrix - AFFX - cls: 25.31 chg: +0.94 stop: 25.45

The BTK biotech index continued to rebound following Wednesday's intraday bounce from "support". The BTK rose 1.1%. Meanwhile shares of AFFX out performed its peers and the market with a big 3.8% rebound after testing support at the bottom of its trading range on Wednesday. Our target is the $26.85-27.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on August 1 at $24.37
Change since picked: + 0.94
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 979 thousand

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Gateway Inc. - GTW - cls: 1.33 change: -0.12 stop: 1.27 *new*

GTW reported earnings this morning. The EPS numbers were in-line with estimates but revenues were significantly below expectations. The stock spiked to $1.50 and then plunged toward support near $1.30. We were suggesting that investors buy the dip into the $1.35-1.30 range so the play is now open (we'll use $1.35 as our hypothetical entry point). Please note that we are making a change to our stop loss and raising it to $1.27. The sell-off was pretty ugly today and while we know this is a higher-risk, speculative trade we still want to reduce our exposure. Our target is the $1.55-1.60 range.

Picked on August 2 at $ 1.35
Change since picked: - 0.02
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.6 million

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JP Morgan - JPM - cls: 44.59 change: +0.21 stop: 42.45

JPM is still bouncing and this continues to look like an entry point for bullish positions. However, traders should note that JPM will likely encounter some overhead resistance near its 10-dma near $45.00 and then again near $46.00. More conservative traders might want to reduce their risk and tighten their stops toward the $43.20 region. Our target is the $47.00-47.50 range. FYI: Banks might see another spike lower tomorrow after news hit that AHM is closing its doors tomorrow. Then again most of the "bad news" from AHM has probably already been priced into the market.

Picked on July 30 at $43.70
Change since picked: + 0.89
Earnings Date 10/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17.8 million

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Varian Inc. - VARI - cls: 60.78 chg: +0.11 stop: 56.90

VARI is still consolidating sideways above broken resistance and what should be support near $60.00. The $59-58 zone should also be short-term support. Our target is the $64.85-65.00 range.

Picked on July 27 at $60.66
Change since picked: + 0.12
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 207 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Agilent Tech - A - cls: 38.62 change: +0.46 stop: 39.05

We experienced a close call with A today. The stock rallied higher past technical resistance at its 10-dma and 50-dma. Fortunately the rally ran out of steam near $39.00. Aggressive traders could use this as a new entry point for shorts. We would probably suggest waiting for a new decline under $38.00 or yesterday's low (37.82). Our target is the $35.50-35.00 range. The rising 200-dma near $35.00 could be technical support.

Picked on July 29 at $37.64
Change since picked: + 0.98
Earnings Date 08/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Saul Centers - BFS - cls: 43.90 change: -0.08 stop: 45.31

BFS broke out past short-term resistance near $44.00 on an intraday basis but eventually closed lower. This sort of failed rally could be used as a new bearish entry point for shorts but more conservative traders might want to wait for a new decline under $43.50 first. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $45.05. More aggressive traders may want to leave their stop above the 50-dma near $45.65. Our target is the $40.15-40.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the latest June data put short interest at 4.8% of the company's 10.7 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and a very small float, which could be a recipe for a short squeeze. Trade carefully!

Picked on July 25 at $43.76
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 08/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 78 thousand

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Mattel - MAT - cls: 23.18 change: -0.40 stop: 25.05

Well so much for any toy-recall bounce. MAT produced a bearish failed rally pattern with today's reversal under $24.00 and its falling 10-dma. The company did decide to recall about one million toys imported from China over lead-paint concerns. MAT said the move would impact operating income by $30 million (source:AP). Conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward breakeven. Our target is the $22.05-22.00 range.

Picked on July 22 at $24.68
Change since picked: - 1.50
Earnings Date 07/16/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 thousand

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Motorola - MOT - cls: 16.89 change: +0.20 stop: 18.11

NOK turned in a very bullish earnings report today and the stock soared to new multi-year highs. The news from NOK failed to have much impact on MOT. Shares of MOT continue to look short-term oversold and due for a bounce so readers may want to wait for a failed rally under $17.50 or its 10-dma near $17.30 before considering new positions. Our target is the $15.10-14.50 range.

Picked on July 29 at $16.95
Change since picked: - 0.06
Earnings Date 10/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 25.7 million

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - cls: 42.38 change: +0.17 stop: 45.15

We don't have anything new to report on for STLD. Shares continue to trade sideways for the fifth day in a row. The overall trend is still bearish but a few short-term technical indicators are suggesting a potential upward bounce soon. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 range.

Picked on July 25 at $44.93
Change since picked: - 2.55
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million

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UnitedHealth - UNH - cls: 48.36 change: +0.37 stop: 51.05

The HMO healthcare index turned in a 2% rebound marking it as one of today's better performing sectors. UNH managed a 0.7% gain in a meager oversold bounce. The trend is still bearish but UNH is still short-term oversold and due for a bigger rebound. Watch for the 10-dma near $50.00 to act as overhead resistance. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 range. The P&F chart is already bearish and points to a $46 target.

Picked on July 26 at $49.95
Change since picked: - 1.59
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.5 million

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Energy Sector SPDR - XLE - cls: 68.35 chg: -0.47 stop: 75.01

Oil and oil service stocks continued to suffer profit taking on Thursday even though crude oil futures managed a minor rebound after yesterday's decline. The XLE posted a 0.6% loss and is seeing a lot of volume on the declines, which is normally bearish. More conservative traders may want to lower their stops! Our target is the $65.25-65.00 range.

Picked on July 26 at $69.75
Change since picked: - 1.40
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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