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Long Play Updates

JP Morgan - JPM - cls: 45.11 change: +1.46 stop: 42.95

Wall Street came out to defend itself today trying to soothe the markets with comments that things were not as bad as they seemed last week and that investors have overreacted, etc. This sparked some bargain shopping and short covering in the financials. Shares of JPM rallied to a 3.3% gain and a technical breakout over the 10-dma. This looks like a new bullish entry point but readers might want to be cautious with their stops and raise their stop toward today's low (43.28). Our target is the $47.00-47.50 range.

Picked on July 30 at $43.70
Change since picked: + 1.41
Earnings Date 10/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17.8 million

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Varian Inc. - VARI - cls: 62.38 chg: +2.83 stop: 57.90

VARI was back to its winning ways today. A positive market environment allowed the stock to breakout to new highs and close with a 4.7% gain. Volume came in strong, which is normally a good sign. Our target is the $64.85-65.00 range.

Picked on July 27 at $60.66
Change since picked: + 1.72
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 207 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Agilent Tech - A - cls: 38.31 change: +0.33 stop: 39.05

We have to be cautious with our bearish short plays following Monday's big market rebound. Shares of A had provided a new entry point last week but now that's in jeopardy. We're not suggesting new positions unless A provides another clear failed rally under $39.00. Traders should remember that we only have five trading days left before we plan to exit and avoid the company's earnings report. Our target is the $35.50-35.00 range. The rising 200-dma near $35.00 could be technical support.

Picked on July 29 at $37.64
Change since picked: + 0.67
Earnings Date 08/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Saul Centers - BFS - cls: 43.76 change: +0.39 stop: 45.05

It was a volatile session for BFS with the stock bouncing from its recent lows (actually a new relative low) to its recent highs. The stock closed right where we started this play at $43.76. Given the market's big rebound we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $40.15-40.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the latest June data put short interest at 4.8% of the company's 10.7 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and a very small float, which could be a recipe for a short squeeze. Trade carefully!

Picked on July 25 at $43.76
Change since picked: - 0.00
Earnings Date 08/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 78 thousand

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Dell Inc. - DELL - cls: 27.39 change: +0.24 stop: 28.26

DELL's intraday breakdown under $27.00 this morning was enough to open the play. Our suggested trigger to short it was at $26.95. Now that the play is open our target is the $25.75-25.50 range. The sad news is that the market's big bounce fueled a sharp rebound in DELL and today's candlestick looks like a bullish reversal pattern. We would not suggest new positions until we see a clear failed rally pattern under the $28.00 level and/or its 10 or 50-dma.

Picked on August 06 at $26.95
Change since picked: + 0.44
Earnings Date 08/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 21.0 million

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Gamestop - GME - close: 40.60 change: +1.05 stop: 41.65

GME rallied right back toward resistance at its trend line of lower highs. We would wait for a new decline under $40.00 or the $39.50 level as a new bearish entry point for shorts. More conservative traders might want to wait for a little more confirmation and look for a new move under $38.80 before opening shorts. Our target is the $35.50-35.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the latest (July) data puts short interest at 4.5% of GME's 144 million-share float.

Picked on August 05 at $39.55
Change since picked: + 1.05
Earnings Date 08/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million

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Kroger - KR - close: 26.46 change: +0.63 stop: 27.26

The market's big rebound fueled a bounce in KR and the stock rose 2.4% to close back above what should have been resistance near $26.00 and its 200-dma. Wait for a failed rally under the 10-dma or the $27.00 level as a new bearish entry point. Or if you prefer wait for a new decline under $25.90 before considering new short positions. Our short-term target is the $24.10-24.00 range.

Picked on August 05 at $25.83
Change since picked: + 0.63
Earnings Date 09/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.7 million

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Lear Corp. - LEA - cls: 32.79 chg: -0.17 stop: 36.05

Technically we would have been stopped out at the open this morning since most quote services will tell you that LEA opened at $36.80 and our stop is at $36.05. The move this morning was a bad tick. If you look at an intraday chart LEA really opened at $32.85. Since this was the first day we could actually trade LEA we wouldn't have been stopped out yet. Normally we take our losses if a bad tick occurs but since our readers didn't have an opportunity to open positions yet we're going to ignore today's bad tick. LEA's relative weakness is a good sign for the bears but we would remain cautious given the market's big rebound.We are suggesting shorts now with the stock under $35.00. We have two targets. Our first target is the $30.25-30.00 range. Our second target is the $27.75-27.50 zone.

Picked on August 05 at $32.96
Change since picked: - 0.17
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Mattel - MAT - cls: 23.64 change: +0.92 stop: 24.68

MAT was no exception to the market's strength today. The stock rose 4% and erased most of our unrealized "gains". More conservative traders may want to lower their stop loss toward the $24.00 level. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $22.05-22.00 range.

Picked on July 22 at $24.68
Change since picked: - 1.04
Earnings Date 07/16/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 thousand

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Motorola - MOT - cls: 16.53 change: +0.18 stop: 17.55

MOT was actually due for an oversold bounce so today's rebound doesn't concern us. Watch for a failed rally under the 10-dma as a new bearish entry point for shorts. Our target is the $15.10-14.50 range.

Picked on July 29 at $16.95
Change since picked: - 0.42
Earnings Date 10/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 25.7 million

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NTELOS - NTLS - cls: 24.63 change: -1.13 stop: 27.75

NTLS continued to display relative weakness. The stock dropped 4.3% on strong volume while the rest of the market rallied. We would not suggesting new positions at this time. The 100-dma near $24 might be support but we're aiming for the $22.25-22.00 range.

Picked on August 05 at $25.76
Change since picked: - 1.13
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 402 thousand

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Riverbed Tech. - RVBD - cls: 43.23 change: +1.44 stop: 45.75

RVBD produced a 3.4% bounce today. We would wait and watch for a failed rally under $44.00 or $45.00 as a new bearish entry point to short it. Our target is the $36.00-35.00 range.

Picked on August 05 at $41.79
Change since picked: + 1.44
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Smith Intl. Inc. - SII - cls: 56.86 change: -0.05 stop: 62.05

We need to issue some caution on our bearish SII play. Shares dipped to $54.25 this morning but the big bounce back looks like a bullish reversal. The OSX oil services index is showing a similar rebound. Wait and watch for a failed rally near $60.00 and/or its 10 or 50-dma, which would be a very attractive entry point for new shorts. Our target is the $51.00-50.00 range.

Picked on August 05 at $56.91
Change since picked: - 0.05
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million

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UnitedHealth - UNH - cls: 48.50 change: +1.00 stop: 50.26

UNH raised its earnings guidance this morning, which helped shares post a 2.1% gain. From the looks of it the rebound isn't over and UNH may have produced a short-term bullish double-bottom pattern with the two lows near $47.40. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop loss closer to break even. We're not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 range. The P&F chart is already bearish and points to a $46 target.

Picked on July 26 at $49.95
Change since picked: - 1.45
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.5 million

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Energy Sector SPDR - XLE - cls: 66.50 chg: +0.38 stop: 71.05

Target achieved! The XLE dipped to $64.23 this morning before bouncing back into the green. Our primary target was the $65.25-65.00 range. We want to warn readers that the big bounce back on huge volume is a bullish signal. If you did not take some money off the table today you may want to reconsider or at least tighten your stop loss. We would expect a rebound back toward the 10-dma near $69.00. Nimble traders could actually buy this bounce and exit near $69.00 to scalp a couple of points. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our aggressive target is the $62.50 level.

Picked on July 26 at $69.75
Change since picked: - 3.25
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Affymetrix - AFFX - cls: 26.96 chg: +1.85 stop: 23.95

Target achieved (and exceeded). Biotechs continued to rebound and shares of AFFX out paced its peers with a 7.3% rally. The stock hit an intraday high at $27.04. Our target was the top of its trading range in the $26.85-27.00 zone. A breakout from here would be very bullish but shares are starting to look a little short-term overbought from its recent low.

Picked on August 1 at $24.37
Change since picked: + 2.59
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 979 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

Safeway Stores - SWY - cls: 33.28 change: +1.69 stop: 33.16

Our new bearish play on SWY did not pan out. The stock began to bounce right from the open. The rally really caught fire around 2:00 p.m. today in what looks like a short squeeze. The rise past $33.00 is bullish although the stock does still have a lot of overhead resistance. We would have been stopped out at $33.16.

Picked on August 05 at $31.59
Change since picked: + 1.69
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million
 

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