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Long Play Updates

JP Morgan - JPM - cls: 45.34 change: +0.23 stop: 42.95

Tuesday proved to be another volatile day for the stock market. JPM traded in a relatively wide range testing both resistance at $46.00 and support near $44.00. We don't see any real changes from our previous comments. Readers might want to be cautious with their stops and raise their stop toward today's low (43.28). Our target is the $47.00-47.50 range. FYI: There was a Reuters article out last night suggesting that Bear Stearns (BSC) might be a takeover candidate for JPM, BAC or HSBC.

Picked on July 30 at $43.70
Change since picked: + 1.64
Earnings Date 10/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17.8 million

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Varian Inc. - VARI - cls: 60.83 chg: -1.55 stop: 57.90

After breaking out to new seven-year highs yesterday shares of VARI hit some profit taking. The stock gave back 2.48%. On the plus side shares did bounce from its dip near $59.60. The trend remains bullish but we would hesitate to open new positions at this time. Our target is the $64.85-65.00 range.

Picked on July 27 at $60.66
Change since picked: + 0.17
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 207 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Agilent Tech - A - cls: 38.30 change: -0.01 stop: 39.05

Shares of A were inching higher throughout most of the session. The stock actually spiked higher late in the day but quickly reversed and shares closed in the red. This looks like another failed rally entry point but you may want to wait for some additional weakness tomorrow to confirm the move. Traders should remember that we only have four trading days left before we plan to exit and avoid the company's earnings report. Our target is the $35.50-35.00 range. The rising 200-dma near $35.00 could be technical support.

Picked on July 29 at $37.64
Change since picked: + 0.66
Earnings Date 08/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Saul Centers - BFS - cls: 43.30 change: -0.46 stop: 45.05

BFS spent the session churning sideways. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $40.15-40.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the latest June data put short interest at 4.8% of the company's 10.7 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and a very small float, which could be a recipe for a short squeeze. Trade carefully!

Picked on July 25 at $43.76
Change since picked: - 0.46
Earnings Date 08/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 78 thousand

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Dell Inc. - DELL - cls: 27.22 change: -0.17 stop: 28.26

DELL lost 0.6% on Tuesday and the relative weakness is a good sign for the bears. However, the stock also put in another rebound near yesterday's low, which is a good sign for the bulls. The larger pattern remains unchanged with DELL's broken bullish channel. A failed rally under $28.00 and/or its 10 or 50-dma could be used as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $25.75-25.50 range.

Picked on August 06 at $26.95
Change since picked: + 0.27
Earnings Date 08/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 21.0 million

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Kroger - KR - close: 26.25 change: -0.21 stop: 27.26

The early morning rally in KR failed and the resulting pattern looks like a new entry point for shorts. However, readers may want to wait for a new decline under $25.80 (or $25.90) before considering new bearish positions. Our short-term target is the $24.10-24.00 range.

Picked on August 05 at $25.83
Change since picked: + 0.42
Earnings Date 09/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.7 million

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Lear Corp. - LEA - cls: 32.20 chg: -0.59 stop: 36.05

LEA dipped to a new relative low but managed a decent rebound this afternoon. The stock did close with a 1.79% decline. Watch for a bounce tomorrow morning and then look for it to roll over under $34.00. We have two targets. Our first target is the $30.25-30.00 range. Our second target is the $27.75-27.50 zone.

Picked on August 05 at $32.96
Change since picked: - 0.76
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Mattel - MAT - cls: 23.43 change: -0.21 stop: 24.68

MAT's relative weakness today is encouraging but we're starting to worry that shares are building a short-term bottom over the last several days. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop loss toward the $24.00 level. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $22.05-22.00 range.

Picked on July 22 at $24.68
Change since picked: - 1.25
Earnings Date 07/16/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 thousand

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Motorola - MOT - cls: 16.46 change: -0.07 stop: 17.55

We don't see any changes from our previous comments on MOT. Watch for a failed rally under the 10-dma as a new bearish entry point for shorts. Our target is the $15.10-14.50 range.

Picked on July 29 at $16.95
Change since picked: - 0.49
Earnings Date 10/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 25.7 million

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NTELOS - NTLS - cls: 25.06 change: +0.43 stop: 27.75

NTLS produced an oversold bounce to the tune of +1.7%. Watch for a failed rally under $26 or its 50-dma as a potential entry point for new shorts. The 100-dma near $24 might be support but we're aiming for the $22.25-22.00 range.

Picked on August 05 at $25.76
Change since picked: - 0.70
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 402 thousand

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Riverbed Tech. - RVBD - cls: 42.69 change: -0.54 stop: 45.75

Lack of follow through from RVBD's bounce on Monday is a good sign for the bears. This could be used as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $36.00-35.00 range.

Picked on August 05 at $41.79
Change since picked: + 0.90
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Smith Intl. Inc. - SII - cls: 58.20 change: +1.34 stop: 62.05

We have to issue another warning on SII. The stock produced a bullish engulfing-style candlestick today. This is normally seen as a bullish reversal and when coupled with yesterday's big bullish rebound this doesn't look like the place for new shorts. More conservative traders may want to exit now to cut their losses or tighten their stops toward $60.00, which should be overhead resistance. The 10-dma and 50-dma near $60 should also be overhead resistance. Our target is the $51.00-50.00 range.

Picked on August 05 at $56.91
Change since picked: + 1.29
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million

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UnitedHealth - UNH - cls: 47.99 change: -0.51 stop: 50.26

UNH spiked lower this morning and hit $45.82 before bouncing back. Shares eventually closed with a 1% loss. It's worth noting that today's intraday high of $49.07 looks like another bad tick (again). More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop loss closer to break even. We're not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 range. The P&F chart is already bearish and points to a $46 target.

Picked on July 26 at $49.95
Change since picked: - 1.96
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.5 million

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Energy Sector SPDR - XLE - cls: 68.06 chg: +1.56 stop: 71.05

Bullish reversal alert! The trading in the XLE over the last couple of days has produced a bullish reversal pattern. The stock does still have overhead resistance at its 10-dma, 50-dma and the $70.00 level but the big volume behind the reversal is a concern! We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Readers may want to exit early or tighten their stops toward $70.00. The XLE has already hit our first target in the $65.25-65.00 range. Our secondary, aggressive target is the $62.50 level.

Picked on July 26 at $69.75
Change since picked: - 1.69
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Gamestop - GME - close: 42.76 change: +2.16 stop: 41.65

Ouch! GME soared 5.3% on strong volume today. This pushed shares past its bearish trendline of resistance. Powering this move was news that Microsoft (MSFT) just announced this morning that it was lowering the price of its Xbox 360 by $50. That will probably drive more traffic to stores like GME and hence the spike higher.

Picked on August 05 at $39.55
Change since picked: + 3.21
Earnings Date 08/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million
 

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