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Long Play Updates

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Short Play Updates

Agilent Tech - A - cls: 38.48 change: +0.18 stop: 39.05

Be careful here. It looks like the bears are slowly losing this fight. Shares of A appear to be coiling for a bullish breakout higher over resistance at the 50-dma and the $39.00 level. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Considering the market's strength more conservative traders may want to exit early now.

Picked on July 29 at $37.64
Change since picked: + 0.84
Earnings Date 08/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Saul Centers - BFS - cls: 44.08 change: +0.78 stop: 45.05

It looks like the same story here. BFS is consolidating sideways but looking more closely shares appear to be coiling for a breakout higher. However, that could change pretty quickly. BFS reported earnings after the closing bell. Revenues were a bit better than expected but the earnings results was a miss. Shares of BFS were trading lower in after hours (around $43.40). We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $40.15-40.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the latest June data put short interest at 4.8% of the company's 10.7 million-share float. That is relatively high short interest and a very small float, which could be a recipe for a short squeeze. Trade carefully!

Picked on July 25 at $43.76
Change since picked: + 0.36
Earnings Date 08/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 78 thousand

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Dell Inc. - DELL - cls: 27.78 change: +0.56 stop: 28.26

This is it! This is the pivotal test for DELL. The stock rallied toward resistance near $28.00 and its 50-dma. Will it roll over from here or breakout higher? Taking into account the broader market's recent strength we would probably wait for a new decline under today's low (27.40) before initiating new short positions. Our target is the $25.75-25.50 range.

Picked on August 06 at $26.95
Change since picked: + 0.83
Earnings Date 08/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 21.0 million

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Kroger - KR - close: 25.45 change: -0.80 stop: 27.26

KR displayed relative weakness with a 3% loss today. Shares actually hit an intraday low of $24.83. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop toward $27.00. Our short-term target is the $24.10-24.00 range.

Picked on August 05 at $25.83
Change since picked: - 0.38
Earnings Date 09/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.7 million

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Lear Corp. - LEA - cls: 31.36 chg: -0.84 stop: 36.05

LEA displayed plenty of relative weakness with a 2.6% decline. Fueling the move may have been news that over half of LEA's shareholders have voted to reject Carl Icahn's $2.9 billion offer to buy the company (source: AP). We're not suggesting new shorts at current levels. We have two targets. Our first target is the $30.25-30.00 range. Our second target is the $27.75-27.50 zone.

Picked on August 05 at $32.96
Change since picked: - 1.60
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Mattel - MAT - cls: 22.97 change: -0.46 stop: 24.68

Hmm... The recent consolidation in MAT looked like it was preparing to rebound higher. Shares reversed and lost 1.9% today on above average volume, which is good news for the bears! More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop loss toward $24.00. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $22.05-22.00 range.

Picked on July 22 at $24.68
Change since picked: - 1.71
Earnings Date 07/16/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 thousand

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Motorola - MOT - cls: 17.10 change: +0.64 stop: 17.55

MOT just erased our unrealized gains with a big 3.8% rally today. The stock broke through potential resistance at the $17.00 mark and its 10-dma. The stock looks poised to challenge the next level of resistance near $17.50. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $15.10-14.50 range.

Picked on July 29 at $16.95
Change since picked: + 0.15
Earnings Date 10/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 25.7 million

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NTELOS - NTLS - cls: 24.94 change: -0.12 stop: 27.75

It looks like the bears are still in control of NTLS. The early morning spike higher failed at the 50-dma and shares lost 0.4% by the closing bell. Volume was pretty strong on the session. Today's move can be used as a new bearish entry point. Conservative traders could lower their stops toward $27.00 or today's high. The 100-dma near $24 might be support but we're aiming for the $22.25-22.00 range.

Picked on August 05 at $25.76
Change since picked: - 0.85
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 402 thousand

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Riverbed Tech. - RVBD - cls: 44.62 change: +1.93 stop: 45.75

Strength in the NASDAQ and technology stocks helped RVBD produce a 4.5% rebound. The rally stalled under its August 2nd high but that's not very comforting considering shares closed over technical resistance at the 50-dma. We are not suggesting new positions at this time! More conservative traders may want to cut their losses now.

Picked on August 05 at $41.79
Change since picked: + 2.83
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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UnitedHealth - UNH - cls: 47.57 change: -0.42 stop: 50.26

Healthcare was one of the market's worst performing sectors today. The HMO index lost 3.1%. Shares of UNH also under performed the market with a 0.8% decline. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop loss closer to break even. We're not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 range. The P&F chart is already bearish and points to a $46 target.

Picked on July 26 at $49.95
Change since picked: - 2.38
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.5 million

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Energy Sector SPDR - XLE - cls: 69.35 chg: +1.29 stop: 71.05

The XLE has now rallied back toward resistance near $70.00 and its 50-dma. Will it continue to rally or will it roll over from here? A failed rally from here could be used as a new entry point for shorts but we'd wait for a new decline under $68.00 before considering new positions. Readers may want to tighten their stops toward $70.00. The XLE has already hit our first target in the $65.25-65.00 range. Our secondary, aggressive target is the $62.50 level.

Picked on July 26 at $69.75
Change since picked: - 0.40
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million
 

Closed Long Plays

JP Morgan - JPM - cls: 46.51 change: +1.17 stop: 42.95

Target achieved. The financials continued to rebound on Wednesday and JPM rose 2.5% on strong volume. Shares hit an intraday high of $47.23. Our target was $47.00-47.50. JPM did see a sharp late day rebound from its afternoon lows. Thus the stock looks poised to continue higher tomorrow.

Picked on July 30 at $43.70
Change since picked: + 2.81
Earnings Date 10/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17.8 million

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Varian Inc. - VARI - cls: 58.86 chg: -1.97 stop: 57.90

We do not see any rhyme or reason to VARI's sell-off. The stock had been showing a lot of relative strength but yesterday shares ignored the market rally and the stock did it again today. VARI really turned weak this afternoon. One could guess that there was something negative in the company's 10-Q released this afternoon. Our stop loss was at $57.90 and the intraday low was $57.72.

Picked on July 27 at $60.66
Change since picked: - 1.80
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 207 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

Smith Intl. Inc. - SII - cls: 61.38 change: +3.18 stop: 62.05

Several of the oil service stocks produced a sharp rebound today. SII was one of them with a huge move to $62.94 intraday. Shares broke through overhead resistance at the 50-dma and the $60.00 level. We would have been stopped out at $62.05. Volume on today's rally was very big, which is good news for the bulls!

Picked on August 05 at $56.91
Change since picked: + 4.47
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million
 

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