Long Play Updates
Short Play Updates
Dell Inc. - DELL - cls: 26.45 change: +0.02 stop: 28.05 *new*
Six cents. Shares of DELL came within six cents of our target in the $25.75-25.50 range. The stock managed to recover and turn green before Friday's closing bell. The trend is still bearish but shares look a bit short-term oversold and due for a bounce. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Please note that we are adjusting the stop loss to $28.05, which is just above resistance at $28.00 and its 50-dma. FYI: There has been a lot of talk lately on some of the cable channels that tech is now the "safe" place to be to avoid the sub-prime contagion. Or that now is the time to buy tech heading into the fall and fourth quarter. This could inspire some dip buying in DELL.
Picked on August 06 at $26.95
Motorola - MOT - cls: 16.61 change: -0.20 stop: 17.55
On Friday MOT announced its new RAZR2 phones would be available soon but the announcement failed to support the stock price. Shares lost another 1.1%. This looks like another confirmation of Thursday's failed rally pattern and would normally be another entry point for shorts, we are feeling very cautious about initiating new shorts at this time. If you're feeling conservative you could tighten your stop loss toward Thursday's high (17.23). Our target is the $15.10-14.50 range.
Picked on July 29 at $16.95
NTELOS - NTLS - cls: 24.61 change: +0.74 stop: 26.75
NTLS continues to show a lot of volatility with some big intraday swings. Fortunately, the stock produced another lower high with Friday's failed rally under $26.00. Yet at the same time shares ended the day with a 3% bounce. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $22.25-22.00 range. FYI: The body of Friday's candlestick looks like a bullish engulfing pattern, which is normally seen as a bullish reversal.
Picked on August 05 at $25.76
Riverbed Tech. - RVBD - cls: 41.11 change: -1.51 stop: 45.51*new*
Most of the technical indicators for RVBD continue to look bearish. The stock has seen three failed rallies under its 21-dma in the last couple of weeks and now the stock is slipping toward potential support near $40.00. If RVBD can break $40 there is potential support at the 100-dma near $38.20 and then potential support near $35.00. Readers can choose to use a new decline under $40.00 as an entry point or wait for a new failed rally under $44.00. We're adjusting our stop loss to $45.51. Our target is the $36.00-35.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $35 target.
Picked on August 05 at $41.79
UnitedHealth - UNH - cls: 47.48 change: +1.15 stop: 50.01 *new*
Healthcare appeared to be the market's best performing sector on Friday. The HMO index rose 4.4% on Friday after a weekly decline of more than 8% (last Friday's close to this Friday's low). The big oversold bounce produced some big moves in the likes of AET, CI and UNH although UNH under performed some of its peers. The trend is still bearish for UNH but we're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 range. We are going to inch down our stop loss to $50.01. FYI: We are somewhat worried that last week's performance might be interpreted as a bounce from technical support at the 200-week moving average (see chart).
Picked on July 26 at $49.95
Energy Sector SPDR - XLE - cls: 67.72 chg: +0.36 stop: 70.10
Crude oil futures have already experienced a 10% correction and they look like they want to bounce from what should be support near the $70.00 level. If crude oil does bounce then it's likely to lift the oil and energy stocks with it. The pattern is XLE is still bearish but the bulls aren't giving up without a fight and Friday's session saw a big rebound from its intraday lows. We're not suggesting new short positions at this time. The XLE has already hit our first target in the $65.25-65.00 range. Our secondary, aggressive target is the $62.50 level.
Picked on July 26 at $69.75
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays
Mattel - MAT - cls: 23.04 change: +0.56 stop: 24.05
Target exceeded. MAT spiked lower on Friday morning with a dip to $21.96. Our target was the $22.05-22.00 range. That's good news for us but anyone who didn't exit might be in trouble. MAT produced a sharp rebound closing up 2.49%.
Picked on July 22 at $24.68