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Long Play Updates

L.B.Foster Co. - FSTR - cls: 36.85 change: -0.48 stop: 33.90

FSTR is still showing relative strength with only a minor loss today. However, if you're looking for a new entry point to buy the stock we would wait for a dip (better yet a bounce) near $35.00 and its rising 10-dma. Due to the market's volatility and FSTR's own volatility we are using a wide (aggressive) stop loss. We have two targets. Our first target is the $39.90-40.00 range. Our second target is the $42.00-42.50 zone. FYI: More conservative traders may want to put their stop loss closer to $35.00.

Picked on August 14 at $37.33
Change since picked: - 0.48
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 150 thousand

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Patterson-UTI - PTEN - cls: 21.93 change: -0.52 stop: 20.74

Oil stocks were not immune to the market-wide sell-off today even though oil is inching higher. The move in PTEN is definitely bearish with the breakdown under its 10-dma and the $22.00 level. More conservative traders may want to consider an early exit to cut their losses now. We believe that PTEN should have significant (a.k.a. strong) support near $21.00 so we're going to stick with it. Wait and watch for a bounce near $21.00 as a new bullish entry point. Our first target is the $24.85-25.00 range.

Picked on August 12 at $22.36
Change since picked: - 0.43
Earnings Date 11/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.6 million

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Starbucks - SBUX - cls: 26.57 chg: -0.58 stop: 26.75

SBUX continues to see profit taking and the stock is heading toward the bottom of its recent trading range near $26.50. The question here is will it bounce? Right now we'd watch for a bounce from here (near $26.50) or near $26.00 as a more aggressive, and un-official entry point to buy the stock. Currently our plan is to buy a breakout higher with a trigger at $28.81. However, if we do see SBUX produce a clear rebound near somewhere above $26.00 we'll probably change our entry point. Then again if the markets continue to plunge we may just yank SBUX from the newsletter as a bullish candidate. A drop under $25.60 or $25.20 could be seen as a potential entry point for shorts.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17.0 million

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Teva Pharma - TEVA - cls: 42.49 change: -0.40 stop: 41.69 *new*

TEVA is holding up relatively well considering the broad-based market weakness. As expected the stock is dipping toward support near $42.00 and its rising 50-dma. We would wait for a bounce near $42.00 before considering new bullish positions. Please note that we're adjusting our stop loss to $41.69, which is just under the August 10th low. Our conservative target is the $45.85-46.00 range due to the old all-time high. Our secondary target is the $47.50-50.00 range.

Picked on August 12 at $43.33
Change since picked: - 0.84
Earnings Date 11/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.3 million
 

Short Play Updates

Akamai - AKAM - close: 31.75 change: -0.60 stop: 35.05

AKAM sank to a new 52-week low and appears to have cleared the bottom of its recent trading range. We would still consider new shorts at this time. The P&F chart is very bearish and points to a $13 target. We see potential support near $30.00 but AKAM doesn't have real support until the $27.50 region. We're aiming for the $28.00-27.50 zone. FYI: Traders should be aware that the latest (July) data put short interest at 6.5% of the 159 million-share float. That's a relatively high amount of short interest and increases the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on August 14 at $32.35
Change since picked: - 0.60
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.2 million

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Dell Inc. - DELL - cls: 26.30 change: -0.16 stop: 27.55 *new*

We were surprised by the midday rally in DELL but when the market turned lower this afternoon DELL followed suit. This is another bearish failed rally pattern. We are adjusting our stop loss to $27.55. Our target is the $25.75-25.50 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim toward the $24.75 region.

Picked on August 06 at $26.95
Change since picked: - 0.66
Earnings Date 08/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 21.0 million

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Motorola - MOT - cls: 16.21 change: -0.30 stop: 17.55

A downgrade for MOT helped push the stock to a 1.8% decline. This looks like confirmation of yesterday's bearish reversal but shares may still have support near its earlier August lows. Today's weakness was good news since last night the stock was trading higher in after hours. If you're feeling conservative you could tighten your stop loss toward Thursday's high (17.23). Our target is the $15.10-14.50 range.

Picked on July 29 at $16.95
Change since picked: - 0.74
Earnings Date 10/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 25.7 million

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NTELOS - NTLS - cls: 24.83 change: -0.25 stop: 26.55

NTLS produced another failed rally under the $26.00 level. This looks like another entry point for shorts. However, more conservative traders may want to tighten their stop loss toward the $26.00 mark. Our target is the $22.25-22.00 range.

Picked on August 05 at $25.76
Change since picked: - 0.93
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 402 thousand

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Riverbed Tech. - RVBD - cls: 40.98 change: -0.55 stop: 45.05*new*

RVBD produced another bearish failed rally pattern under its sliding 10-dma today. Unfortunately, the bulls are putting up a fight in the $40.75-41.00 zone. We would probably wait for a new breakdown under $40.00 before considering new shorts. We are somewhat concerned about the 100-dma near $38.50 as potential support. Please note that we're adjusting our stop loss to $45.05. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $44.00. Our target is the $36.00-35.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $35 target.

Picked on August 05 at $41.79
Change since picked: - 0.81
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Energy Sector SPDR - XLE - cls: 65.50 chg: -1.85 stop: 70.10

Oil stocks continue to show weakness even though crude oil was ticking higher on Wednesday. The XLE really plunged late this afternoon and the ETF is nearing our primary target again in the $65.25-65.00 range. We're not suggesting new short positions at this time. The XLE has already hit our first target in the $65.25-65.00 range. Our secondary, aggressive target is the $62.50 level. Keep an eye on the Gulf of Mexico. If tropical storm Dean turns into a hurricane and heads into the Gulf then crude oil should spike and pull the energy stocks along with it.

Picked on July 26 at $69.75
Change since picked: - 4.25
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Helmerich Payne - HP - cls: 29.62 chg: -0.57 stop: 28.85

We are suggesting an early exit in HP right here! This is probably a case of investors throwing the baby out with the bath water. Oil stocks are trading lower even as crude oil ticks higher. If tropical storm Dean turns into a hurricane and heads into the Gulf of Mexico then crude oil could really spike higher. Today's sell-off in HP pushed the stock under what should have been support at $30.00 and again at the 200-dma near 29.63. We are suggesting you hit the ejection seat.

Picked on August 12 at $31.55
Change since picked: - 1.93
Earnings Date 11/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
 

Closed Short Plays

UnitedHealth - UNH - cls: 49.12 change: +0.64 stop: 50.01

Shares of UNH hit our stop loss at $50.01 today. In the past healthcare was seen as a defensive play and when the markets turned weak investors would flee to the perceived safety of healthcare stocks. That may have been an issue in today's relative strength for UNH. However, odds are stronger that the news Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway had increased its position in UNH was the real reason UNH traded higher. The intraday high was $50.10.

Picked on July 26 at $49.95
Change since picked: - 0.83
Earnings Date 07/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.5 million
 

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