Long Play Updates
Boyd Gaming - BYD - cls: 42.00 chg: +0.55 stop: 39.49
Traders quickly bought the initial dip to $41 on Friday morning but they didn't have enough steam to power past resistance at the $42.00 level. We would expect shares to tip toe sideways until after the FOMC meeting on Tuesday. A move over $42.25 could be used as a new entry point but watch out for potential resistance at the 50-dma under $44.00. Our target is the $44.90-46.00 range.
Picked on September 04 at $41.55
Global Ind. - GLBL - cls: 24.71 chg: +0.07 stop: 23.49 *new*
If you read the wrap this weekend then you know that Jim expects crude oil futures to turn lower. That will drag on the oil and oil service stocks. While we believe that GLBL has great fundamentals more conservative traders might still want to consider an early exit right now to avoid future losses. We are adjusting our stop loss to $23.49 and will be prepared to exit quickly if GLBL begins to show too much weakness. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $28.00-29.00 range.
Picked on September 06 at $24.65
Wyndham Worldwide - WYN - cls: 30.20 change: +0.15 stop: 29.90
WYN came out with some news on Friday morning but it failed to move the stock price. The company reaffirmed its third quarter earnings guidance but said they were raising their "legacy litigation reserves". Shares gapped down at the open but traders bought it at support near $29.70. The stock has been forming what looks like a potential short-term bottom all week with a $29.70-30.50 trading range. More aggressive traders might want to consider new bullish positions on a move over $30.50. We're going to wait for a move over $32.00 for now. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $32.15. If WYN doesn't move after the Tuesday Fed meeting we're going to drop it as a candidate. Currently our target is the $33.90-35.00 range. FYI: A breakdown under $29.60 could be used as a new entry point for shorts. The MACD on the daily chart is nearing a new sell signal!
Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Short Play Updates
Fastenal Co. - FAST - cls: 43.80 change: +0.83 stop: 45.05 *new*
This could be a real turning point for FAST. The stock bounced from the bottom of its short-term trading range to the top of its range. Yet the rally stalled near resistance at $44.00 and near resistance at its 10 and 100-dma. At the same time the stock produced a bullish engulfing (reversal) candlestick pattern. With all of these mixed signals it's hard to say where FAST will go next. Overall the stock has a larger pattern of lower highs but shares just spent a week building support near $42.50. We are not suggesting new positions at this time and if you think the market is going to rally on the Fed meeting then you may want to exit early to avoid further losses. We're adjusting our stop loss to $45.05. We are targeting a decline into the $40.25-40.00 range. The $40.00 level and its rising 200-dma near $40 should be support. FYI: The P&F chart is still bullish, for now. FYI: The latest (August) data puts short interest at 9% of the 105.8 million-share float. That is an above average amount of short interest, which raises the risk level on this play.
Picked on September 09 at $43.48
Jackson Hewitt - JTX - cls: 26.45 chg: +0.30 stop: 28.05
Chart readers will note that JTX just produced two bullish reversal patterns in a row. Thursday was a bullish hammer candlestick (and what now looks like a bear trap). Friday was a bullish engulfing style candlestick pattern. Odds are good that JTX will see some follow through higher on Monday. More conservative traders might just want to cut their losses now. JTX could easily rebound toward its 10-dma near $27.60. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $22.50-22.00 range. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at more than 12% of the 30 million-share float. That's a relatively high degree of short interest and does raise the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on September 13 at $25.85 <-- see TRIGGER
Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 33.19 chg: +0.15 stop: 35.05
MNST spent this past week churning sideways but inside a larger, bearish pattern of lower highs. This sort of consolidation normally forecasts a breakdown lower but it's anyone's guess with the Fed meeting on Tuesday. At this point we'd probably wait for a new relative low under $32.50 before considering new positions. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward $34.15. Our first target is the $30.25-30.00 range.
Picked on September 09 at $33.50
Network Appl. - NTAP - cls: 26.98 change: -0.34 stop: 28.85
The bounce in NTAP is still fading and the stock is on the verge of moving into a new leg lower. The MACD on the daily chart is right at a new sell signal. This could be a new entry point for shorts or readers can wait for a new decline under $26.75. We have two targets. Our first target is the $25.15-25.00 range. Our second target is the $24.00-23.50 zone. FYI: Markets are likely to churn sideways ahead of the Fed. Our readers might want to wait until after the Fed's decision before initiating new positions.
Picked on September 09 at $27.12
Closed Long Plays
Starbucks - SBUX - cls: 27.64 chg: +0.16 stop: 26.74
Target achieved. Our play on SBUX did not live up to expectations. The stock's sideways trading range narrowed as shares developed new resistance near $28.00. We kept adjusting our target because of the falling 100-dma. SBUX finally hit $27.75 on Friday. Our latest target was the $27.75-28.00 range. A breakout is relatively imminent. We would keep an eye on SBUX for a rise past $28.00-28.50 or a drop under $26.00.
Picked on August 16 at $26.61
Closed Short Plays
Cintas - CTAS - cls: 36.37 change: +0.32 stop: 37.01
We are giving up on CTAS. The stock is struggling to maintain a direction for more than two days. This back and forth chop will probably end as investors react to the Fed meeting on Tuesday. We're suggesting an early exit now to cut our losses but we'll keep an eye on CTAS for a breakout over $37.00 or a breakdown under $35.50.
Picked on September 09 at $35.65