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Long Play Updates

Boyd Gaming - BYD - cls: 43.50 chg: +0.65 stop: 41.55

Market strength allowed BYD to recover some of Friday's losses. The stock posted a 1.5% rebound. The bounce could be used as a new entry point to buy the stock but if you're opening new positions here we'd suggest a stop just under $42.00. Our target is the $44.90-46.00 range.

Picked on September 04 at $41.55
Change since picked: + 1.95
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Coach Inc. - COH - cls: 47.07 change: -0.20 stop: 45.99

Today's under performance by COH would be a good reason to just drop the stock. The new bearish signal in the daily chart's MACD doesn't help matters. However, traders did buy the dip near $46.00 this morning. We're going to stick with the play since any market follow through on today's widespread rally should help lift COH past resistance near $48.00. More conservative traders may want to go ahead and abandon COH right here. Our target is the $51.85-52.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim for the April highs near $54.00. The P&F chart points to a $63 target. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.

Picked on September 19 at $48.70 *gap higher
Change since picked: - 1.63
Earnings Date 10/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.0 million

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Cisco Systems - CSCO - cls: 32.99 change: -0.14 stop: 30.90

Large cap tech stocks have been leading the rally yet CSCO was strangely absent from the rally today. The stock traded flat and looks poised to dip. We would watch for a dip back toward the $32.50-32.00 range as a potential entry point to jump in. FYI: CSCO is due to present at two different investor/analyst conferences this week on October 1st and the 2nd. Our target on CSCO is the $34.75-35.00 range.

Picked on September 26 at $32.65
Change since picked: + 0.34
Earnings Date 11/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 56 million

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Global Ind. - GLBL - cls: 25.52 chg: -0.24 stop: 24.65 *new*

Oil service stocks rallied in the face of a crude oil pull back. Yet shares of GLBL slept through any sector strength and actually lost 0.9%. This relative weakness is a warning signal. We're raising our stop loss to $24.65. Expect a dip back toward $25.25-25.00. Our target is the $28.00-29.00 range.

Picked on September 06 at $24.65
Change since picked: + 0.87
Earnings Date 10/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million

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NET Services - NETC - cls: 17.38 change: +0.80 stop: 15.60*new*

NETC rallied just over 4.8% and closed over potential resistance near $17.00. More conservative traders may want to consider an early exit now with shares up more than 10% from our picked price. We're raising our stop loss to $15.60. Today's intraday high was $17.50 and any follow through tomorrow could push the stock to our target. Our target is the $17.75-18.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $21 target. FYI: We can't find a third quarter earnings date yet but the company has a history of reporting in late October or early November. We don't want to hold over the earnings report.

Picked on September 24 at $15.60
Change since picked: + 1.78
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 610 thousand

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NVIDIA - NVDA - close: 37.77 change: +1.53 stop: 33.75

Tech stocks have been leading the rallies. Shares of NVDA did their part with a 4.2% gain and another new high. The SOX semiconductor index is nearing a bullish breakout of its own and if the SOX does breakout it could give NVDA a little extra push higher. Our target for NVDA is the $39.00-40.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $55 target.

Picked on September 26 at $36.15
Change since picked: + 1.62
Earnings Date 11/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 15.3 million

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Sirius Satellite Radio - SIRI- cls: 3.49 change: +0.00 stop: 3.19

Unfortunately, SIRI did not participate in the market rally today. Shares were drifting sideways and closed unchanged. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. Here's a reprint of our Sunday comments:

The stock appears to have built a pretty significant bottom over the April-August time frame. The breakout in early September looks pretty bullish and shares have already retested broken resistance at its 200-dma as new support. We have two concerns. Our market outlook is flat to down this week. Second, there has been a lot of new talk about the proposed merger between SIRI and XMSR never getting completed. Thus far the recent comments on the merger have not derailed the rally in SIRI but future headlines could send the stock moving sharply lower and thus remains a risk. We are using a wide (aggressive) stop loss and SIRI is facing some resistance near $3.60. Our target is the $3.95-4.00 range.

Picked on September 30 at $ 3.49
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 35.2 million

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Westwood One - WON - cls: 2.76 chg: +0.01 stop: 2.24

Traders stepped in and bought the dip in WON twice near $2.65 today. More aggressive traders might want to buy this dip and just cinch up their stop loss. We're going to stick to our plan for now. Our plan is to buy a dip into the $2.60-2.50 range. However, what we want to do is actually buy a rebound back out of this zone. So wait for WON to dip toward $2.50 and then we're suggesting readers buy it on a rebound back above $2.60. We're suggesting a stop under the recent lows but conservative traders might consider a stop under $2.50. If triggered we're going to target a rebound into the $3.25-3.50 range.

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Wyndham Worldwide - WYN - cls: 32.78 change: +0.02 stop: 30.89

We are a little surprised that WYN did not show more strength today. However, looking at the intraday chart we see that bulls were buying the stock near dips toward the $32.50 region. Our target is the $33.90-35.70 range. One concern is potential resistance at the 100-dma and 20-dma that are near the $34.00 level.

Picked on September 19 at $32.15
Change since picked: + 0.63
Earnings Date 10/31/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Zoltek - ZOLT - cls: 45.09 change: +1.46 stop: 39.95

Shares of ZOLT managed to out perform the major indices with a 3.3% rally and a close over the $45.00 mark. Readers might want to use this as a new bullish entry point and just tighten your stop. Our target is the $$49.00-50.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $51 target.

Picked on September 24 at $43.06
Change since picked: + 2.03
Earnings Date 12/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 804 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Commscope - CTV - cls: 51.90 change: +1.66 stop: 54.26

CTV just erased last week's losses with a 3.3% gain today. Furthermore today's rally was fueled by above average volume. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $53.50 or $53.00. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $47.00-45.00 range but we'll be watching for potential support at the rising 200-dma. The P&F chart points to a $43 target. CTV was supposed to present at an investor/analyst conference in New York today but we didn't see or hear any news from the meeting.

Picked on September 24 at $51.75
Change since picked: + 0.15
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Insteel Industries - IIIN - cls: 15.84 chg: +0.49 stop: 16.35

Monday's widespread market rally lifted IIIN to a 3.19% gain but volume remained light. A breakout over $16.00 would be bullish but readers can watch for another failed rally under $16 as a new entry point for shorts. More conservative traders might try placing their stop just above $16.00. We do not want to hold over the October 18th earnings report. FYI: It is important to note that the most recent data lists short interest at 23% of the stock's small 14.2 million-share float. That is a high degree of short interest and combined with the small float is a recipe for a short squeeze. Our stop loss may not save us from significant losses. More conservative traders may want to pass on this play.

Picked on September 30 at $15.35
Change since picked: + 0.49
Earnings Date 10/18/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 258 thousand

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Microchip - MCHP - cls: 36.92 change: +0.60 stop: 37.36

The SOX semiconductor index is hinting at a bullish breakout soon. If the SOX can trade over the 512 level then we'd be bullish on semiconductors. A rally in the SOX could lift MCHP to breakout over resistance near $37.50. We're going to stick to our plan for now and wait for a breakdown under support near $36.00. At the moment we're suggesting a trigger for shorts in MCHP at $35.79. If triggered at $35.79 our target is the $33.00-32.50 range. We did note that the P&F chart is still bullish and it will take a new decline under $35.00 to reverse that pattern.

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Supervalu - SVU - cls: 36.62 change: -2.39 stop: 40.01 *new*

It looks like we were not the only ones looking at SVU with bearish eyes. A Bank of America analyst started coverage on the stock with a "sell" rating this morning. The stock reacted by gapping lower at $38.05 and then plunging to $35.54. The bad news is that today's gap open gives us a less than ideal entry point at $38.05. The new relative low is encouraging but don't be surprised to see an oversold bounce. We're adjusting our stop loss to $40.01 and more conservative traders may want to place their stop closer to $39.50. We're aiming for $35.25-35.00.

Picked on September 30 at $38.05 *gap down
Change since picked: - 2.39
Earnings Date 10/11/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Media General - MEG - cls: 29.99 change: +2.48 stop: 28.05

Positive comments from Citigroup (see tonight's wrap) sparked some short covering across the markets. Shares of MEG already had a high degree of short interest and the bears got squeezed today. MEG broke through resistance and posted a 9% gain. Fortunately, we were still on the sidelines. It had been our plan to wait for a breakdown under support near $27.00. Our trigger to open plays was $26.45. Given today's move in MEG we're dropping it as a bearish candidate. The play was never opened.

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/18/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 390 thousand
 

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