Long Play Updates
Adobe - ADBE - close: 47.12 change: +0.85 stop: 44.45 *new*
ADBE completely erased Friday's losses. Traders bought the dip at $46.00 and its 10-dma. The move was so strong this could be a new bullish entry point. We are adjusting our stop loss to $44.45. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range. The P&F chart is already bullish with a $51 target. Our time frame is about five weeks.
Picked on October 09 at $45.05
Heidrick & Struggles - HSII - cls: 40.64 chg: -0.06 stop: 37.99
Traders bought the dip in HSII near round-number support at $40.00. The rebound looks like another bullish entry point although more conservative traders may still want to wait for a breakout over the 50-dma (currently near $41.25). We are still considering a tighter stop in the $39.00-39.50 zone. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the end of October earnings report.
Picked on October 14 at $40.20
UltraShort QQQ - QID - cls: 36.65 change: -0.75 stop: 35.49
Warning! QID hit our trigger to open positions but it may be a trap. We were suggesting a trigger to buy the QID at $37.75 but the ETF gapped open higher at $37.82. The QID almost hit $38.00 before reversing as the NDX index bounced from its intraday lows. Odds look good that the QID could return to its recent lows near $35.50. More aggressive traders may want to widen their stop a bit (say $35.25) to give the QID a little more room to maneuver. We repeat our previous suggestion that more conservative traders may want to wait for a rise past $38.00 before initiating positions. Our target is the $41.00-42.50 range. Don't forget that the QID goes up as the NDX index goes down.
Picked on October 22 at $37.82 *gap higher
Sirius Satellite Radio - SIRI- cls: 3.65 change: +0.10 stop: 3.34*new*
Monday was a volatile session for SIRI. Shares hit $3.47 this morning but bounced back to post a 2.8% gain. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward today's low. We are not suggesting new positions in SIRI at this time. This remains a very speculative, higher-risk play. Our target is the $3.95-4.00 range.
Picked on September 30 at $ 3.49
Short Play Updates
Avon Products - AVP - cls: 36.76 chg: +0.57 stop: 38.01
AVP bounced back along with the major market indices. Traders stepped in and bought AVP near $36 and its exponential 200-dma. Just overhead the 200-dma and broken support at $37.00 should be resistance. Look for a failed rally near $37 as a new entry point for shorts. We have two targets. Our first target is the $34.10-34.00 range. Our second target is the $32.50-32.00 zone. We do not want to hold over the October 30th earnings report.
Picked on October 21 at $36.19
Gap Inc. - GPS - cls: 18.06 change: +0.31 stop: 19.05
GPS gapped open lower this morning at $17.49 providing us a less than ideal entry point. The bounce back was painful but GPS has a lot of overhead resistance. Wait and watch for a failed rally before considering new short positions. Our target is the $16.00-15.50 range.
Picked on October 21 at $17.49 *gap down
Interpublic Group - IPG - cls: 10.14 change: +0.21 stop: 10.31
IPG bucked the trend this morning. The stock gapped open higher instead of gapping open lower. Fueling the strength this morning was an upgrade from Bear Stearns. We are still sitting on the sidelines. We are suggesting a trigger to short IPG at $9.80. If triggered our target is the $8.10-8.00 range but that is probably too aggressive given our time frame. We do not want to hold over the November 1st earnings report. FYI: The latest data puts short interest for IPG at 8.4% of its 438 million-share float.
Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
JDS Uniphase - JDSU - cls: 15.16 change: -0.07 stop: 16.01
JDSU spiked lower this morning, under its 200-dma, before bouncing back. The good news here is that the rebound struggled near $15.40 all day long and JDSU was fading lower into the close. Our target is the $13.75-13.50 zone. We do not want to hold over the October 31st earnings report.
Picked on October 21 at $15.23
NVE Corp. - NVEC - cls: 29.59 change: -0.16 stop: 31.51
We have good news and bad news with NVEC. The bad news is that shares gapped open lower at $29.30. We were suggesting a trigger to short it at $29.40 so our entry point is a bit worse than planned. The good news is that the midday bounce failed near its 200-dma and the move looks like a failed rally and offers another entry point for short positions. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. FYI: We would consider this an aggressive play simply for the fact that NVEC's average daily volume is very low! However, the real risk is a short squeeze. The latest data puts short interest at more than 30% of NVEC's very, very small 4.2-million share float. That represents a big risk for a short squeeze.
Picked on October 22 at $29.30 *gap down entry
Pacific Ethanol - PEIX - cls: 8.11 change: -0.14 stop: 9.26*new*
PEIX continues to under perform the market. The stock failed to participate in the market's big bounce today. Meanwhile PEIX is testing round-number support at the $8.00 mark. We are adjusting our stop loss to $9.26. Our target is the $7.75-7.50 range. Readers should note that the most recent data puts short interest at more than 16% of PEIX's 34.2 million-share float, which would raise the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on October 14 at $ 9.03
Closed Long Plays
Lexmark - LXK - close: 43.74 change: +1.39 stop: 41.06
LXK rallied strongly ahead of its earnings report. The stock broke out above its 100-dma and gained 3.2% on decent volume. It was our plan to exit today at the closing bell to avoid holding over the company's earnings report due out tomorrow morning. Our target was the $44.85-45.00 range.
Picked on October 09 at $41.06
Closed Short Plays
Apria Healthcare - AHG - cls: 23.35 change: +0.15 stop: 25.31
Target achieved. AHG dipped to $22.40 before bouncing back into the green. Our target has been the $22.50-22.00 range. We want to caution readers who did not exit. AHG may have put in a short-term low this morning. Monday's candlestick looks like a potential bullish reversal. We would not hold over the October 30th earnings report. FYI: AHG has relatively high short interest. The latest data puts short interest at more than 15% of the 43.3 million-share float. This raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on October 14 at $25.31