Long Play Updates
Adobe - ADBE - close: 47.75 change: +0.63 stop: 44.45
ADBE rallied to another new high. Volume was a bit light but we're not going to complain. We remain bullish on the stock but we're not suggesting new positions. We are considering a tighter stop loss near $45.00 soon. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range. The P&F chart is already bullish with a $51 target. Our time frame is about five weeks.
Picked on October 09 at $45.05
Heidrick & Struggles - HSII - cls: 40.44 chg: -0.20 stop: 38.95 *new*
HSII continues to bounce between support near $40.00 and resistance at its sliding 50-dma. Lack of upward progress is starting to take a toll on the technical indicators. We are adjusting our stop loss to $38.95. More conservative traders could raise their stop closer to $40. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the end of October earnings report.
Picked on October 14 at $40.20
Sirius Satellite Radio - SIRI- cls: 3.65 change: +0.00 stop: 3.34
There was no change in shares of SIRI today and we see no change from our previous comments. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. We are not suggesting new positions in SIRI at this time. This remains a very speculative, higher-risk play. Our target is the $3.95-4.00 range.
Picked on September 30 at $ 3.49
Short Play Updates
Avon Products - AVP - cls: 37.07 chg: +0.31 stop: 38.01
The action in AVP today may be the sort of failed rally we're looking for as a new entry point for shorts. The stock traded intraday above resistance at its 10-dma and 200-dma but pared its gains by the closing bell. Readers could wait for a little more confirmation and look for a decline under $36.80 or $36.70 before initiating new shorts. We have two targets. Our first target is the $34.10-34.00 range. Our second target is the $32.50-32.00 zone. We do not want to hold over the October 30th earnings report.
Picked on October 21 at $36.19
Gap Inc. - GPS - cls: 17.98 change: -0.08 stop: 19.05
Shares of GPS spiked higher this morning but an earnings warning from Coach (COH) weighed on the retailers. From the opening bell until about 2:00 p.m. today the move in GPS looked like the sort of failed rally we would want to short. Unfortunately, the market's afternoon rebound lifted shares of GPS off their lows. We remain bearish and would still consider shorts here with GPS under $18.50 but readers might want to tighten their stop loss toward today's high at $18.65. Our target is the $16.00-15.50 range.
Picked on October 21 at $17.49 *gap down
Interpublic Group - IPG - cls: 10.06 change: -0.08 stop: 10.31
IPG spent the session churning sideways in a 27-cent range. We are still sitting on the sidelines. We are suggesting a trigger to short IPG at $9.80. If triggered our target is the $8.10-8.00 range but that is probably too aggressive given our time frame. We do not want to hold over the November 1st earnings report. FYI: The latest data puts short interest for IPG at 8.4% of its 438 million-share float.
Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
JDS Uniphase - JDSU - cls: 15.29 change: +0.13 stop: 16.01
JDSU continued to bounce but shares did not make it past short-term resistance near $15.50. We remain bearish on the stock with shares under its 10-dma. However, readers might want to wait for another decline below $15.00 before initiating new positions. Our target is the $13.75-13.50 zone. We do not want to hold over the October 31st earnings report.
Picked on October 21 at $15.23
NVE Corp. - NVEC - cls: 29.95 change: +0.36 stop: 31.51
NVEC hit $28.55 this morning and the bounced back sharply. Gains began to fade until the market-wide rally hit this afternoon. NVEC is currently testing what should be overhead resistance near $30.00 and its 200-dma (near 30.25). Look for the rally to fail (maybe a decline under $29.50) before considering new shorts. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. FYI: We would consider this an aggressive play simply for the fact that NVEC's average daily volume is very low! However, the real risk is a short squeeze. The latest data puts short interest at more than 30% of NVEC's very, very small 4.2-million share float. That represents a big risk for a short squeeze.
Picked on October 22 at $29.30 *gap down entry
Pacific Ethanol - PEIX - cls: 7.96 change: -0.15 stop: 9.26
PEIX failed to participate in the market's bounce today. That's good news for the bears. The stock closed down 1.8% and the close under $8.00 is another bearish signal. Our target is the $7.75-7.50 range. Readers should note that the most recent data puts short interest at more than 16% of PEIX's 34.2 million-share float, which would raise the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on October 14 at $ 9.03
Closed Long Plays
UltraShort QQQ - QID - cls: 35.27 change: -1.38 stop: 35.49
Thanks to huge, earnings-fueled rallies in several high-flying tech stocks the NDX (NASDAQ 100 index) broke out to a new multi-year high over 2200. This pushed the QID through the bottom of its recent channel and below support near $35.50 hitting our stop loss at $35.49.
Picked on October 22 at $37.82 *gap higher
Closed Short Plays