Long Play Updates
Alcoa - AA - cls: 40.43 change: +1.08 stop: 36.95
AA helped lead the DJIA higher with a 2.7% gain and a breakout over the $40.00 level. We were suggesting a trigger to buy AA at $40.10 so the play is now open. Readers can choose to open positions here or look for another dip back toward $40.00, which should be new short-term support. our target is the $44.50-45.00 range. Our time frame is six to eight weeks. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AA is bullish and points to a $53 target.
Picked on October 29 at $40.10
Adobe - ADBE - close: 47.00 change: -0.00 stop: 44.85
The momentum in ADBE is starting to falter. Shares broke down under short-term technical support at the 10-dma and its bullish pattern of higher lows. ADBE managed to recover and close unchanged on the session but we wouldn't be surprised to see further weakness if the technical indicators are any sign. More conservative traders may want to take a little money off the table. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range. The P&F chart is already bullish with a $51 target. Our time frame is about four weeks.
Picked on October 09 at $45.05
Bristow Group - BRS - cls: 50.40 chg: +0.00 stop: 47.90
BRS broke out from its consolidation pattern on Monday. The stock gapped open higher at $50.71 and hit $51.60 intraday before paring its gains. The stock actually closed unchanged on the session. We were suggesting a trigger to open positions at $50.51 but the gap higher has given us a higher entry. The $50.00 level held as short-term support midday and readers could use another rebound from here as a new entry point. Our target is the $54.00-55.00 range, which is a little aggressive considering our time frame. BRS is due to report earnings on Monday, November 5th after the market's close. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a $60 target. This is an oil services stock.
Picked on October 29 at $50.71
C S X Corp. - CSX - close: 44.72 change: -0.04 stop: 42.99
CSX spent the session trading sideways in a relatively narrow range after hitting $45.01 this morning. We do not see any changes from our weekend new play description. We're suggesting a trigger to buy CSX at $45.15. If triggered our target is the $49.50-50.00 range. Our time frame is six to eight weeks. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $61 target. More conservative traders may want to try a tighter stop loss near $43.50.
Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gerdau Sa ADS - GGB - close: 31.26 change: +0.89 stop: 27.90
GGB soared to another new all-time high with Monday's 2.9% gain. We remain bullish here but readers might want to wait for a dip back toward $30.00 before considering new bullish positions. We cannot find a confirmed earnings date for GGB but it normally reports in early November. We suspect that we still have a week to two weeks before the announcement, which we do not want to hold over. The lack of a confirmed report date does raise the risk on this play. Plus, there are several other steel-related companies reporting this week and their reports could influence trading in shares of GGB. An example would be U.S.Steel (NYSE:X) who reports on Tuesday morning. Our target is the $33.50-35.00 range.
Picked on October 28 at $30.37
MIVA Inc. - MIVA - close: 3.25 change: -0.09 stop: 2.99
MIVA hit some minor resistance at $3.40 this morning and turned lower. Traders stepped in to buy the dip near $3.17. We want to remind readers that this is a high-risk, speculative play. You could buy this dip or wait for signs of a bounce first back above $3.30. We suspect that the bad news is already out so we're going to make an exception to our rule about holding over earnings. This time we plan to hold over the report in early to mid November. Our target is the $3.95-40.00 range.
Picked on October 28 at $ 3.34
Systemax - SYX - close: 23.15 change: -0.24 stop: 21.59
SYX hit some profit taking on Monday after touching a new relative high at $24.19. The pull back to $23.00 may be a new bullish entry point but at this point we would want to wait for signs of a bounce, maybe over $23.25 or $23.40, before initiating new positions. We believe the stock can breakout past the $25 level. Our target is the $27.00-27.50 range. Our time frame is six to eight weeks. FYI: the P&F chart is very bullish with a $40 target.
Picked on October 28 at $23.39
Short Play Updates
Basic Energy - BAS - cls: 19.63 change: -0.36 stop: 20.85
Oil service stocks failed to rally on the strength in crude oil today. Meanwhile shares of BAS continued to sink. The stock confirmed Friday's breakdown under support at the $20.00 mark. Our suggested trigger to short the stock was at $19.75 so the play is now open. Our target is the $18.50-18.00 range. More conservative types could exit near the August lows around $18.60. The P&F chart is very bearish with a $9.00 target. We do not want to hold over the November 8th earnings report.
Picked on October 29 at $19.75
Gap Inc. - GPS - cls: 18.67 change: +0.06 stop: 19.05
We remain defensive on GPS. The stock didn't move much today and its sideways consolidation narrowed significantly around noon today. The only news on GPS today was its announced that it was severing its relationship with a clothing supplier in India after discovering the company used and abused its child labor. We would wait for a drop under $18.25 or $18.00 before considering new shorts on GPS. Our target is the $16.00-15.50 range.
Picked on October 21 at $17.49 *gap down
JDS Uniphase - JDSU - cls: 15.16 change: +0.43 stop: 15.55
JDSU produced a relatively big bounce with a 2.9% gain and a breakout back above its 200-dma and the $15.00 level. This is a relatively bullish move and should be shorts on the defensive. We only have a couple of days left so we're not suggesting new positions. We will plan to exit on Wednesday at the closing bell to avoid the earnings announcement. Our target is the $13.75-13.50 zone.
Picked on October 21 at $15.23
NVE Corp. - NVEC - cls: 28.80 change: -0.21 stop: 31.51
We do not see any changes from our weekend comments on NVEC. The stock continues to slip albeit very slowly. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops a bit. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The bearish head-and-shoulders pattern in the charts is forecasting a $20-18 target. FYI: We would consider this an aggressive play simply for the fact that NVEC's average daily volume is very low! However, the real risk is a short squeeze. The latest data puts short interest at more than 30% of NVEC's very, very small 4.2-million share float. That represents a big risk for a short squeeze.
Picked on October 22 at $29.30 *gap down entry
Closed Long Plays
Heidrick & Struggles - HSII - cls: 39.71 chg: -0.72 stop: 39.74
It was our plan to exit tonight at Monday's closing bell to avoid holding over HSII's earnings report due out tomorrow. Unfortunately, the stock displayed relative weakness and hit our stop loss at $39.74, closing the play.
Picked on October 14 at $40.20
Sirius Satellite Radio - SIRI- cls: 3.61 change: +0.03 stop: 3.49
Time has run for us with the SIRI play. The company is due to report earnings tomorrow morning. We didn't want to hold over the announcement so it was our plan to exit tonight at the closing bell.
Picked on September 30 at $ 3.49
Closed Short Plays