Long Play Updates
Alcoa - AA - cls: 39.37 change: -1.06 stop: 36.95
Ouch! AA experienced a relatively tough session on Tuesday. The stock lost 2.6% and almost completely erased Monday's gains. We did not see anything specific to account for the gap down this morning. Look for AA to find short-term support in the $38.00-38.50 zone. A bounce near $38.50 would look like an attractive entry point for new bullish positions. our target is the $44.50-45.00 range. Our time frame is six to eight weeks. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AA is bullish and points to a $53 target.
Picked on October 29 at $40.10
Adobe - ADBE - close: 47.51 change: +0.51 stop: 44.85
Traders decided to buy the bounce from Monday and shares of ADBE added just over 1% as it rebounded back into its narrow, rising channel. We are not suggesting new positions at this time and we're tempted to raise the stop loss toward the $46 region. More conservative traders may want to take a little money off the table. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range. The P&F chart is already bullish with a $51 target. Our time frame is about four weeks.
Picked on October 09 at $45.05
Bristow Group - BRS - cls: 48.41 chg: -1.99 stop: 47.90
Our readers may want to abandon ship with BRS. This morning Goldman Sachs (GS) said they thought the run up in crude oil was nearing an end and maybe it was time to take profits. Crude oil prices plunged 3% on the comments and oil service stocks tanked. The OSX oil services index lost 4.3%. Shares of BRS followed with a 3.9% decline and a breakdown under what could have been short-term support near $49.00 and its 10-dma. There is still potential support at $48.00, which is why we're not closing the play right now. However, the combination of Monday's failed-rally type of pattern and today's sell-off is definitely bearish. We're not suggesting new positions. BRS is due to report earnings on Monday, November 5th after the market's close.
Picked on October 29 at $50.71
C S X Corp. - CSX - close: 44.38 change: -0.34 stop: 42.99
We are issuing a reversal warning on CSX. The stock gapped open higher at $45.21 and then quickly reversed lower. Shares painted a bearish engulfing candlestick (reversal) pattern. Our biggest problem is that the play is now open. We were suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $45.15 and this morning's opening trade would have opened the play. Currently CSX is still trading inside its bullish, rising channel. However, the MACD and the RSI indicators on the daily chart are not looking too healthy. If you are long the stock you may want to tighten your stop loss toward $43.75 to reduce your risk. These bearish engulfing candlesticks usually need to see a confirmation the next day. If CSX turns higher we'd wait for a new move over $45.25 before considering bullish positions. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range. Our time frame is six to eight weeks. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $61 target.
Picked on October 30 at $45.21 *gap higher entry
Gerdau Sa ADS - GGB - close: 30.65 change: -0.61 stop: 27.90
After three days of gains GGB experienced some profit taking today. The stock lost 1.9% and did so on strong volume. It is the volume on today's move that is a potential warning signal. We would look for a dip back toward $30.00. Broken resistance near $30 should be new support so a pull back could be used as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $33.50-35.00 range.
Picked on October 28 at $30.37
MIVA Inc. - MIVA - close: 3.17 change: -0.08 stop: 2.99
Unfortunately, MIVA continued to correct on Tuesday. The stock lost another 2.4% and has almost completely erased Friday's gains. MIVA did bounce from its initial test of short-term support at the 10-dma. That's a positive sign. However, we'd probably wait for a new rally past $3.20 or $3.25 before considering new positions. We want to remind readers that this is a high-risk, speculative play. We suspect that the bad news is already out so we're going to make an exception to our rule about holding over earnings. This time we plan to hold over the report in early to mid November. Our target is the $3.95-40.00 range.
Picked on October 28 at $ 3.34
Systemax - SYX - close: 22.83 change: -0.32 stop: 21.59
SYX continues to slip on declining volume. We would wait for signs of a bounce, maybe over $23.25 or $23.40, before initiating new positions. We believe the stock can breakout past the $25 level. Our target is the $27.00-27.50 range. Our time frame is six to eight weeks. FYI: the P&F chart is very bullish with a $40 target.
Picked on October 28 at $23.39
Short Play Updates
Basic Energy - BAS - cls: 19.30 change: -0.33 stop: 20.85
Goldman Sach's comments that it may be time to take profits in crude oil sent both crude oil and the oil services sector lower. The OSX oil services index lost 4.3%. Shares of BAS only lost 1.68% but this follows the recent breakdown. We don't see any real changes from our previous comments. Our target is the $18.50-18.00 range. More conservative types could exit near the August lows around $18.60. The P&F chart is very bearish with a $9.00 target. We do not want to hold over the November 8th earnings report.
Picked on October 29 at $19.75
Gap Inc. - GPS - cls: 18.78 change: +0.11 stop: 19.05
We do not see any real changes from our previous comments on GPS. We remain very defensive here. The stock is currently trading under resistance near $19.00. The problem for the bears is that the current trend of higher lows is bullish and suggests that GPS might breakout higher soon. Conservative traders may want to exit early ahead of the FOMC decision. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $16.00-15.50 range.
Picked on October 21 at $17.49 *gap down
JDS Uniphase - JDSU - cls: 15.19 change: +0.03 stop: 15.55
JDSU rallied this morning but it ran out of steam under resistance near $15.50. JDSU still managed to out perform the broad market indices. Tomorrow is our last day. We will plan to exit on Wednesday at the closing bell to avoid the earnings announcement. Our target is the $13.75-13.50 zone.
Picked on October 21 at $15.23
NVE Corp. - NVEC - cls: 28.65 change: -0.15 stop: 31.05 *new*
NVEC slipped to a new relative low on an intraday basis. The overall pattern continues to look bearish but we wouldn't expect any moves ahead of tomorrow's FOMC interest rate decision. We are adjusting our stop loss to $31.05. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops closer to the $30 level. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The bearish head-and-shoulders pattern in the charts is forecasting a $20-18 target. FYI: We would consider this an aggressive play simply for the fact that NVEC's average daily volume is very low! However, the real risk is a short squeeze. The latest data puts short interest at more than 30% of NVEC's very, very small 4.2-million share float. That represents a big risk for a short squeeze.
Picked on October 22 at $29.30 *gap down entry
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays