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Long Play Updates

Alcoa - AA - cls: 37.90 change: -1.69 stop: 36.95

As a Dow component AA felt the brunt of the DJIA's sell-off. The stock broke down under what should have been short-term support near $39.00 and again near $38.50. Watch for a rebound before considering new bullish positions. Our target is the $44.50-45.00 range. Our time frame is six to eight weeks.

Picked on October 29 at $40.10
Change since picked: - 2.20
Earnings Date 10/09/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.5 million

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Adobe - ADBE - close: 46.92 change: -0.98 stop: 44.85

ADBE's bullish trend (and channel) is in danger again. The stock lost 2% and closed under its rising 10-dma. Shares look poised to dip toward $46.00 soon. More conservative traders may want to take a little money off the table. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range. The P&F chart is already bullish with a $51 target. Our time frame is about four weeks.

Picked on October 09 at $45.05
Change since picked: + 1.77
Earnings Date 12/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million

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AZZ Inc. - AZZ - close: 31.67 change: -2.43 stop: 30.95

Ouch! AZZ under performed the markets. The stock hit some heavy profit taking with most of it occurring in the last two hours of trading today. AZZ closed with a 7.1% decline on rising volume. There is a chance that AZZ will bounce near $31.00 and its 50-dma. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our initial target is the $37.90-38.00 range but more aggressive traders could aim for $40.00. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at a relatively high 7.7% of AZZ's very small 11-million share float.

Picked on October 31 at $34.10
Change since picked: - 2.43
Earnings Date 01/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 200 thousand

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Bristow Group - BRS - cls: 48.17 chg: -1.72 stop: 47.90

It has been a very volatile few days in BRS. The stock's been seeing some relatively big intraday swings. Today was just another whipsaw with a failed rally under $50.00 and a drop toward short-term support near $48.00. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. BRS is due to report earnings on Monday, November 5th after the market's close. We do not want to hold over the report.

Picked on October 29 at $50.71
Change since picked: - 2.54
Earnings Date 11/05/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 210 thousand

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C S X Corp. - CSX - close: 43.34 change: -1.43 stop: 42.99

Warning! The bullish trend in CSX is in trouble. The stock has broken down below the bottom of its rising channel and the MACD on the daily chart has produced a new sell signal. More conservative traders will want to consider cutting their losses right here and exiting early. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range. Our time frame is six to eight weeks. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $61 target.

Picked on October 30 at $45.21 *gap higher entry
Change since picked: - 1.87
Earnings Date 10/16/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.1 million

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Gerdau Sa ADS - GGB - close: 30.31 change: -0.79 stop: 27.90

Shares of GGB were upgraded to a "buy" rating this morning. Unfortunately, the positive news could not compete with the market's sell-off. GGB gapped open lower at $30.56 and closed with a 2.5% loss on above average volume. The $30.00 level is holding as support for now but don't be surprised to see a dip toward the 10-dma near $29.70. Our target is the $33.50-35.00 range.

Picked on October 28 at $30.37
Change since picked: - 0.06
Earnings Date 11/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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MIVA Inc. - MIVA - close: 3.04 change: -0.14 stop: 2.99

MIVA posted another decline. Shares under performed the market with a 4.4% sell-off and a drop back toward support near $3.00. A bounce from here could be used as a new bullish entry point. However, given the stock's recent relative weakness we would probably avoid new positions at this time. We want to remind readers that this is a high-risk, speculative play. We suspect that the bad news is already out so we're going to make an exception to our rule about holding over earnings. This time we plan to hold over the report in early to mid November. Our target is the $3.95-40.00 range.

Picked on October 28 at $ 3.34
Change since picked: - 0.30
Earnings Date 11/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 252 thousand

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Systemax - SYX - close: 22.48 change: -0.92 stop: 21.59

SYX lost 3.9% but traders bought the dip at $22.18 this afternoon. We would wait for a new rally past the 10-dma (22.80) or past today's high at $23.42 before considering new bullish positions. Our target is the $27.00-27.50 range. Our time frame is six to eight weeks. FYI: the P&F chart is very bullish with a $40 target.

Picked on October 28 at $23.39
Change since picked: - 0.91
Earnings Date 12/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 348 thousand

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XTO Energy - XTO - cls: 65.68 change: -0.70 stop: 63.95

Murphy's law is working against us here. XTO rallied to $67.49 midday as crude oil rose to $96 a barrel. Then crude oil reversed and XTO gave back its gains. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock was at $67.25. The play is now open but the move today looks like a bull trap and bearish failed rally pattern. We would wait and watch for a bounce near $65.00 or near $64.00 as an alternative entry but it would need to be a very convincing rebound. Our target is the $72.50-75.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with an $89 target.

Picked on November 01 at $67.25
Change since picked: - 1.57
Earnings Date 01/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million
 

Short Play Updates

Basic Energy - BAS - cls: 19.41 change: -0.38 stop: 20.85

BAS has produced another bearish failed rally under resistance at $20.00 again. This is another entry point for shorts. Our target is the $18.50-18.00 range. More conservative types could exit near the August lows around $18.60. The P&F chart is very bearish with a $9.00 target. We do not want to hold over the November 8th earnings report.

Picked on October 29 at $19.75
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 11/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 406 thousand

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Gap Inc. - GPS - cls: 18.05 change: -0.85 stop: 19.05

The bears were in control on Thursday and GPS plunged through a cloud of moving averages, any of which could have been short-term support. This is a bearish move and readers could use it as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $16.00-15.50 range.

Picked on October 21 at $17.49 *gap down
Change since picked: + 0.56
Earnings Date 11/21/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.7 million

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NVE Corp. - NVEC - cls: 28.11 change: -0.76 stop: 31.05

Market weakness helped push NVEC to a new relative low. The stock lost 2.6% and did so on above average volume, which is bearish. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops closer to the $30 level. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The bearish head-and-shoulders pattern in the charts is forecasting a $20-18 target. FYI: We would consider this an aggressive play simply for the fact that NVEC's average daily volume is very low! However, the real risk is a short squeeze. The latest data puts short interest at more than 30% of NVEC's very, very small 4.2-million share float. That represents a big risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on October 22 at $29.30 *gap down entry
Change since picked: - 1.19
Earnings Date 10/17/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 76 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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