Long Play Updates
Alcoa - AA - cls: 38.56 change: +0.66 stop: 36.95
AA took a beating on Thursday but the quick rebound on Friday looks like a new bullish entry point to buy the stock. Friday's bounce would produce a new higher low in the currently bullish pattern of higher lows (see chart). We are suggesting that readers jump in here but more conservative traders would still wait for more confirmation and a rally past $40.00 again. Our target is the $44.50-45.00 range. Our time frame is six to eight weeks. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $53 target.
Picked on October 29 at $40.10
Adobe - ADBE - close: 47.88 change: +0.57 stop: 45.85 *new*
Bulls continue to buy the dips in ADBE and the stock's bullish trend remains intact. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Please note that we are adjusting the stop loss to $45.85. More conservative traders may want to take a little money off the table. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range. The P&F chart is already bullish with a $51 target. Our time frame is about three weeks.
Picked on October 09 at $45.05
Gerdau Sa ADS - GGB - close: 30.12 change: -0.19 stop: 27.90
GGB continued to sell-off on Friday. However, once the stock had filled the gap from October 26th, traders stepped in to buy the dip. The rebound looks like a new bullish entry point although we will point out that the short-term technicals have taken a turn for the worse. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward $29.00 or Friday's low at $29.28. Our target is the $33.50-35.00 range. FYI: In the news on Friday Gerdau Ameristeel (GNA) announced it was selling another 110 million shares in a secondary offering. GGB is the largest shareholder in GNA. To maintain their 66.5% stake in GNA, GGB agreed to buy close to 73 million shares of the new stock.
Picked on October 28 at $30.37
XTO Energy - XTO - cls: 67.07 change: +1.39 stop: 63.95
Oil stocks were strong again on Friday. Shares of XTO rose more than 2% and closed near all-time highs. We would use Friday's rebound as a new bullish entry point to buy the stock. Our target is the $72.50-75.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with an $89 target.
Picked on November 01 at $67.25
Short Play Updates
Basic Energy - BAS - cls: 19.87 change: +0.46 stop: 20.85
Traders need to turn defensive on BAS. The oil stocks are starting to turn higher again and record high oil prices don't hurt. The overall chart pattern is still bearish but the downward momentum in BAS seems to have stalled and the stock looks ready to breakout over resistance at the $20.00 mark. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $20.50, 20.26 or lower. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The P&F chart is very bearish with a $9.00 target. We do not want to hold over the November 8th earnings report.
Picked on October 29 at $19.75
Gap Inc. - GPS - cls: 18.21 change: +0.16 stop: 19.05
GPS produced a minor oversold bounce on Friday. Look for a failed rally under $18.50 before considering new bearish positions. We're going to start seeing some retail company earnings in the next week or two. Expectations are pretty low for the sector, which raises the risk of an upside surprise or having the companies issue better than expected guidance. The bears may have to tread lightly here. Our GPS target is the $16.00-15.50 range.
Picked on October 21 at $17.49 *gap down
NVE Corp. - NVEC - cls: 27.67 change: -0.44 stop: 30.05 *new*
NVEC continues to sink and closed at a new five-month low on Friday. We are adjusting our stop loss to $30.05. We would not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The bearish head-and-shoulders pattern in the charts is forecasting a $20-18 target. FYI: We would consider this an aggressive play simply for the fact that NVEC's average daily volume is very low! However, the real risk is a short squeeze. The latest data puts short interest at close to 30% of NVEC's very, very small 4.2-million share float. That represents a big risk for a short squeeze.
Picked on October 22 at $29.30 *gap down entry
Closed Long Plays
AZZ Inc. - AZZ - close: 31.68 change: +0.01 stop: 30.95
AZZ was pummeled for a sharp decline on Thursday afternoon and the selling continued into Friday morning. Our stop loss was $30.95 and AZZ hit $30.45 before bouncing back. The play has been closed but we'd keep an eye on AZZ for another rebound over $34.00 as a potential bullish entry point for new positions. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at a relatively high 7.7% of AZZ's very small 11-million share float.
Picked on October 31 at $34.10
Bristow Group - BRS - cls: 48.34 chg: +0.17 stop: 47.90
BRS continued to trade lower on Friday morning and broke down under short-term support near $48.00. The stock hit our stop loss at $47.90 closing the play.
Picked on October 29 at $50.71
C S X Corp. - CSX - close: 43.62 change: +0.43 stop: 42.99
Shares of CSX continued to struggle on Friday morning. The stock dipped toward technical support at its 200-dma near $42.75. CSX hit our stop loss at $42.99 in the process. The technical picture for CSX has turned negative and the stock has broken down from its bullish channel. However, we'd keep an eye on it for a rebound back above $45.00.
Picked on October 30 at $45.21 *gap higher entry
MIVA Inc. - MIVA - close: 2.68 change: -0.36 stop: 2.99
Our speculative, high-risk play in MIVA has been stopped out. A worse than expected earnings report from Harris Interactive (HPOL) sparked some serious profit taking in other online advertising companies. MIVA displayed some serious relative weakness with a bearish breakdown under $3.00 and an 11% decline on Friday. If the stock wasn't so cheap already it would look like a short.
Picked on October 28 at $ 3.34
Systemax - SYX - close: 21.95 change: -0.53 stop: 21.59
Investors continued to sell the retailers. SYX is a catalog/mail-order company but the stock under performed on Friday. The stock closed with a 2.3% decline but hit an intraday low of $21.59, which just happens to be our stop loss. Short-term technicals have now turned negative.
Picked on October 28 at $23.39
Closed Short Plays