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Long Play Updates

Alcoa - AA - cls: 38.57 change: +0.67 stop: 36.95

Investors decided to buy the recent dip in AA near its 50-dma. The stock gapped open higher and closed with a 1.7% gain. Our only complaint would be the lower than average volume. More aggressive traders may want to jump in now. We'd still suggest waiting for a new rise past $39.00 to initiate positions. Our target is the $44.50-45.00 range. Our time frame is six to eight weeks. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $53 target.

Picked on October 29 at $40.10
Change since picked: - 1.53
Earnings Date 10/09/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.5 million

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Adobe - ADBE - close: 47.63 change: -0.07 stop: 45.99 *new*

We are a little surprised by ADBE's relative weakness today. Tech stocks were leading the market higher but ADBE actually closed in the red. Shares are flirting with a breakout over resistance and traders continue to buy the dips. We're going to inch up our stop loss to $45.99. More conservative traders may want to take a little money off the table. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range. The P&F chart is already bullish with a $51 target. Our time frame is about three weeks.

Picked on October 09 at $45.05
Change since picked: + 2.58
Earnings Date 12/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million

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CVS Caremark - CVS - cls: 41.82 change: +0.47 stop: 39.85

Nimble and more aggressive traders might want to jump into CVS now given today's midday rebound higher. We are sticking with our plan and waiting for a breakout over resistance. We're suggesting a trigger to buy CVS at $42.15, which would be a new high. Meanwhile, keep your eye on the stock for an alternative entry point if shares dip (or bounce) near $40.50 again. If triggered at $42.15 our target is the $45.85-46.00 range. Our time frame is year-end.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.5 million

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Gerdau Sa ADS - GGB - close: 31.35 change: +0.66 stop: 27.90

Material stocks performed relatively well today. GGB gapped open higher but then pared its gains to close up 2.1%. The trend remains bullish but this might not be the best entry point for new positions. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward $29.00 or Friday's low at $29.28. Our target is the $33.50-35.00 range.

Picked on October 28 at $30.37
Change since picked: + 0.98
Earnings Date 11/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Hewlett Packard - HPQ - cls: 53.41 chg: +0.87 stop: 49.95

Big cap tech continues to lead the market higher. HPQ broke out past the $53.00 level and closed at a multi-year high. The move today looks like another entry point. Our target is the $56.50-57.50 range. The Point & Figure chart is much more bullish with a triple-top breakout buy signal and a $72 target. We do not want to hold over the November 19th earnings report.

Picked on November 04 at $52.40
Change since picked: + 1.01
Earnings Date 11/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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Intel Corp. - INTC - cls: 27.49 change: +0.65 stop: 25.49

INTC confidently broke through resistance near $27.00 and closed with a 2.4% gain. We remain bullish and would still suggest new positions here. Our target is the $29.85-30.00 range. We're suggesting a stop loss at $25.49 but you may want to consider an alternative stop near the 50-dma (25.75) or closer to $26.00.

Picked on November 04 at $26.80
Change since picked: + 0.69
Earnings Date 01/16/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 65.2 million

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Intuit - INTU - cls: 32.16 change: -0.20 stop: 30.75

INTU under performed the market and its peers with a rocky session that closed in the red. It sounded like there may have been some rumors going around but we couldn't confirm anything. The afternoon bounce looks tempting as an entry point but conservative traders may want to significantly tighten their stops. Look for a new move over $32.50, 32.75, or $33.00 (depending on your risk profile) before initiating new positions. This is going to be a short-term play. INTU is due to report earnings on November 15th. We do not want to hold over the announcement. Our target is the $35.00-36.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $46 target.

Picked on November 04 at $32.54
Change since picked: - 0.38
Earnings Date 11/15/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million

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Nokia - NOK - close: 41.10 change: +1.61 stop: 37.99

We wanted to capture any breakout over resistance at $40.00 so we suggested a trigger to buy NOK at $40.10. Unfortunately, the stock gapped open higher at $40.59, which would have triggered us instantly. The rally continued late this afternoon with a push through the $41.00 level. Readers can choose to chase it here or wait for a potential dip back toward $40.00, which should be support. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range.

Picked on November 06 at $40.59 *gap higher entry
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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XTO Energy - XTO - cls: 66.54 change: +0.08 stop: 63.95

Oil stocks were generally higher today thanks to another rally in crude oil. Yet oddly shares of XTO under performed its peers with a meager 8-cent gain. The stock is still trading under what appears to be resistance in the $67.00-67.50 zone. We would still consider new positions with the stock above $65.00. Our target is the $72.50-75.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with an $89 target.

Picked on November 01 at $67.25
Change since picked: - 0.71
Earnings Date 01/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million
 

Short Play Updates

NVE Corp. - NVEC - cls: 27.13 change: -0.27 stop: 29.30 *new*

NVEC lost 27 cents for the second day in a row. The intraday low was $26.52. Shares are definitely short-term oversold and due for a bounce. We're going to adjust our stop loss to $29.30, which is breakeven. More conservative traders may want to take some profits here. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The bearish head-and-shoulders pattern in the charts is forecasting a $20-18 target. FYI: We would consider this an aggressive play simply for the fact that NVEC's average daily volume is very low! However, the real risk is a short squeeze. The latest data puts short interest at close to 30% of NVEC's very, very small 4.2-million share float. That represents a big risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on October 22 at $29.30 *gap down entry
Change since picked: - 2.17
Earnings Date 10/17/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 76 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Basic Energy - BAS - cls: 20.65 change: +0.58 stop: 20.85

We are going to abandon ship with BAS. Recently we've been warning readers about a breakout over $20.00. Today's follow through (+2.8%) has BAS on the verge of breaking its bearish trendline of lower highs. We're suggesting an early exit now.

Picked on October 29 at $19.75
Change since picked: + 0.90
Earnings Date 11/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 406 thousand

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Gap Inc. - GPS - cls: 18.72 change: +0.70 stop: 19.05

We are throwing in the towel with GPS. The long-term trend is still bearish and GPS does have resistance at the $19.00 level. However, the market looks poised to move higher and given investors' dismal expectations for the retailers the group's upcoming earnings announcements could see some upside surprises. We'd rather cut our losses now.

Picked on October 21 at $17.49 *gap down
Change since picked: + 1.23
Earnings Date 11/21/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.7 million
 

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