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Long Play Updates

Alcoa - AA - cls: 37.40 change: -1.17 stop: 36.95

As a Dow component, shares of AA, felt a lot of selling pressure today. The stock slipped 3% and is once again testing technical support near its 50-dma. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. If there is any market follow through tomorrow on today's sell-off then AA will probably hit our stop loss. Our target is the $44.50-45.00 range. Our time frame is six to eight weeks. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $53 target.

Picked on October 29 at $40.10
Change since picked: - 2.70
Earnings Date 10/09/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.5 million

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Adobe - ADBE - close: 46.17 change: -1.46 stop: 45.99

Ouch! ADBE finally succumbed to profit taking. The stock lost 3% and broke down below its bullish trend of higher lows. This is definitely a bearish move and readers will want to consider early exits now to salvage any sort of gain. The $46.00 level should be short-term support. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range.

Picked on October 09 at $45.05
Change since picked: + 1.12
Earnings Date 12/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million

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CSX Corp. - CSX - close: 43.88 change: +0.99 stop: 42.75

The transportation sector and the railroads were not exceptions to the market-wide sell-off. Shares of CSX lost 2.2%. We do not see any changes from our previous comments. We're suggesting a trigger to open positions at $45.25. If triggered our target is the $49.00-50.00 range. The Point & Figure chart points to a $61 target. FYI: Shares of BNI and UNP both look bullish as well. Keep an eye on them.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 thousand

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CVS Caremark - CVS - cls: 41.64 change: -0.18 stop: 39.85

CVS rallied to a new multi-year high this morning. Contributing to the move was news that the company just bought about $2.3 billion worth of its $5+ billion stock buy back program. Plus, there was some management changes regarding the Chairman of the Board. Unfortunately, for the bulls CVS was unable to maintain its gains but the stock fared better than the rest of the market. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock was at $42.15 so the play is now open. We would wait and watch for a bounce near $41.00 or a new rally over $42.00 before considering new positions. Our target is the $45.85-46.00 range. Our time frame is year-end.

Picked on November 07 at $42.155
Change since picked: - 0.51
Earnings Date 11/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.5 million

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Esterline Tech - ESL - cls: 53.87 change: -1.06 stop: 53.49

ESL slipped 1.9% back toward technical support at its 50-dma. This has been relatively consistent support over the last couple of weeks. More aggressive traders might want to buy this dip or buy a bounce from here. We are still suggesting that readers wait for a breakout over $55.50. Our suggested trigger is at $55.51. Our target is the $59.00-60.00 range.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 12/06/07 (unconfirmed)
AAverage Daily Volume: 332 thousand

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Gerdau Sa ADS - GGB - close: 29.94 change: -1.41 stop: 27.90

GGB reported earnings this morning and the results were 16% higher than they were a year ago. The stock sold off on the news and the widespread market weakness. Shares paused at short-term support near $30.00. We're not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to exit now to cut their losses or raise their stop loss toward $29.00 or Friday's low at $29.28. Our target is the $33.50-35.00 range.

Picked on October 28 at $30.37
Change since picked: - 0.43
Earnings Date 11/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Hewlett Packard - HPQ - cls: 51.84 chg: -1.57 stop: 49.95

It was a painful day for the markets and big cap tech, the recent winners, were targeted for profit taking. Yesterday HPQ broke out over resistance to new 52-week highs. Today the stock gave it all back and more. We would wait and watch for a bounce near $51 or its 50-dma as a potential entry point for bullish positions. Our target is the $56.50-57.50 range. The Point & Figure chart is much more bullish with a triple-top breakout buy signal and a $72 target. We do not want to hold over the November 19th earnings report.

Picked on November 04 at $52.40
Change since picked: - 0.56
Earnings Date 11/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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Intel Corp. - INTC - cls: 26.90 change: -0.59 stop: 25.49

There was no follow through on INTC's bullish breakout from Tuesday. That fact alone is bearish and the two-day move looks like a failed rally pattern. However, the larger pattern is still positive. We would wait and watch for a bounce near $26.50 as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $29.85-30.00 range. We're suggesting a stop loss at $25.49 but you may want to consider an alternative stop near the 50-dma (25.75) or closer to $26.00.

Picked on November 04 at $26.80
Change since picked: + 0.10
Earnings Date 01/16/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 65.2 million

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Intuit - INTU - cls: 30.97 change: -1.19 stop: 30.75

It was a tough day for INTU shareholders. The stock turned lower and sank toward recent support near $31.00 (actually the $31.00-30.80 zone). The sharp sell-off is definitely negative but a bounce from here would be a lower-risk entry point. However, we are now concerned that the stock has produced what might be seen as a bearish double-top pattern. Therefore we'd hesitate to open new positions. INTU is due to report earnings on November 15th. We do not want to hold over the announcement. Our target is the $35.00-36.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $46 target.

Picked on November 04 at $32.54br> Change since picked: - 1.57
Earnings Date 11/15/07 (confirmed)
AAverage Daily Volume: 3.0 million

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Nokia - NOK - close: 40.93 change: -0.17 stop: 37.99

NOK gapped higher this morning on news that it was teaming up with VOD on a project. The stock eventually gave back its early gains. Odds are good that as the European markets react to the U.S. market meltdown today that when shares of NOK open for trading here in the States tomorrow the stock will probably gap lower. Look for a bounce near $40 support as a new entry point for bullish positions. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range.

Picked on November 06 at $40.59 *gap higher entrybr> Change since picked: + 0.34
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
AAverage Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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Companhia Vale Rio - RIO - cls: 35.84 change: -1.91 stop: 34.95

RIO lost 5% as investors did some profit taking with the stock all-time highs. A bounce near $35.50-35.00 could be used as a new bullish entry point but we would hesitate to open new positions if the market indices are still falling tomorrow. Technically the close under $36.00 is a negative! We would expect some resistance near $40.00 but our year-end target is the $42.50-45.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $53 target.br>
Picked on November 06 at $37.75
Change since picked: - 1.91
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (confirmed)
AAverage Daily Volume: 24.6 million

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WMS Ind. - WMS - close: 35.05 chg: -0.75 stop: 32.39

More aggressive traders may want to consider buying this dip or a dip near $34.00. We're still suggesting that readers wait for a breakout. We are suggesting a trigger at $36.11 to catch a breakout over resistance at $36.00. If triggered our target is the $39.75-40.00 range. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $59 target.br>
PPicked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00br> Earnings Date 10/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 630 thousand

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XTO Energy - XTO - cls: 64.05 change: -2.49 stop: 63.95

XTO dove 3.7% and dipped toward what should be support near $64.00. The stock came within just a few cents of our stop loss at $63.95. Odds are very high that if there is any sort of market follow through lower tomorrow mornings that XTO will stop us out. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on November 01 at $67.25br> Change since picked: - 3.20
Earnings Date 01/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million
 

SShort Play Updates

NVE Corp. - NVEC - cls: 27.26 change: +0.13 stop: 29.30

Sometimes the market doesn't make any sense. Today would have been a great day to see NVEC produce some sort of capitulation selling. Yet instead of following the market lower today the stock gaps open higher and closes with a gain. We did not see anything specific in the news to account for the gap higher. We do note that the rally stalled near short-term technical resistance at the 10-dma. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The bearish head-and-shoulders pattern in the charts is forecasting a $20-18 target. FYI: We would consider this an aggressive play simply for the fact that NVEC's average daily volume is very low! However, the real risk is a short squeeze. The latest data puts short interest at close to 30% of NVEC's very, very small 4.2-million share float. That represents a big risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on October 22 at $29.30 *gap down entry
Change since picked: - 2.04
Earnings Date 10/17/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 76 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Ambac Fincl. - ABK - cls: 25.27 change: -2.51 stop: 24.59

Our speculative, high-risk play on a bounce in the financials did not last long. The banking sector indices plunged about 6% as investors fled the group en masse on another round of credit market and subprime exposure fears. Shares of ABK lost 9% and hit an intraday low of $24.44 tagging our stop loss in the process.

Picked on November 06 at $27.999
Change since picked: - 2.51
Earnings Date 10/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.6 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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