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Long Play Updates

CSX Corp. - CSX - close: 44.54 change: +0.66 stop: 42.75

Transportation stocks and the railroads out performed the broader market today. More aggressive traders might want to jump into CSX at this time. We want to see a breakout over $45.00. We're suggesting a trigger to open positions at $45.25. If triggered our target is the $49.00-50.00 range. The Point & Figure chart points to a $61 target. FYI: Shares of BNI and UNP both look bullish as well. Keep an eye on them.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 thousand

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CVS Caremark - CVS - cls: 42.16 change: +0.52 stop: 39.85

CVS continues to show relative strength. Traders bought the dip and the stock rallied back above resistance at $42.00. This looks like a bullish entry point to buy the stock. Our target is the $45.85-46.00 range. Our time frame is year-end.

Picked on November 07 at $42.15
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 11/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.5 million

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Esterline Tech - ESL - cls: 54.00 change: +0.13 stop: 53.49

There is no change from our previous comments on ESL. We are still suggesting that readers wait for a breakout over $55.50. Our suggested trigger is at $55.51. Our target is the $59.00-60.00 range.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 12/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 332 thousand

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Gerdau Sa ADS - GGB - close: 29.89 change: -0.05 stop: 27.90

The bulls are struggling to maintain momentum in GGB. The stock has been seeing a lot of volume during the last few days and that might be considered as a sign of distribution. We're not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to exit now to cut their losses or raise their stop loss toward $29.00 or Friday's low at $29.28. Our target is the $33.50-35.00 range.

Picked on October 28 at $30.37
Change since picked: - 0.48
Earnings Date 11/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Nokia - NOK - close: 40.08 change: -0.85 stop: 37.99

We were expecting a dip in NOK but shares fell a little bit lower than we expected. The stock hit an intraday low of $38.61 before bouncing back. Traders might have been reacting to the less than exciting earnings news from QCOM, who lowered their guidance today. Fortunately, we see the afternoon bounce in NOK above the $40.00 level as a new entry point for long positions. Readers might want to tighten their stops toward today's low (38.61). Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range.

Picked on November 06 at $40.59 *gap higher entry
Change since picked: - 0.51
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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Companhia Vale Rio - RIO - cls: 36.96 change: +1.12 stop: 34.95

RIO continued to move sideways in its trading range. The afternoon bounce looks like an entry point but more conservative traders might want to wait for a new relative high. We would expect some resistance near $40.00 but our year-end target is the $42.50-45.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $53 target.

Picked on November 06 at $37.75
Change since picked: - 0.79
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 24.6 million

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WMS Ind. - WMS - close: 34.97 chg: -0.08 stop: 32.39

Be careful here. It looks like we have been triggered on a bull trap/failed rally type of pattern. WMS spiked higher this morning and hit our trigger to buy it at $36.11. Unfortunately, the stock failed to hold this bullish breakout over resistance at $36.00. The reversal was pretty sharp. Look for another bounce near $34.25 or a new high before considering new positions. Readers might want to tighten their stops! Our target is the $39.75-40.00 range. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $59 target.

Picked on November 08 at $36.11
Change since picked: - 1.14
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 630 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

NVE Corp. - NVEC - cls: 26.96 change: -0.30 stop: 29.30

We don't see any changes from our previous comments on NVEC. The stock continues to trade in its bearish pattern of lower lows and lower highs. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The bearish head-and-shoulders pattern in the charts is forecasting a $20-18 target. FYI: We would consider this an aggressive play simply for the fact that NVEC's average daily volume is very low! However, the real risk is a short squeeze. The latest data puts short interest at close to 30% of NVEC's very, very small 4.2-million share float. That represents a big risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on October 22 at $29.30 *gap down entry
Change since picked: - 2.34
Earnings Date 10/17/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 76 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Alcoa - AA - cls: 37.66 change: +0.26 stop: 36.95

AA actually gapped open higher this morning but the rally ran out of steam at $39.35. Shares of AA proceeded to sell-off throughout the remainder of the day and hit our stop loss at $36.95 with the intraday dip under its 200-dma.

Picked on October 29 at $40.10
Change since picked: - 2.44
Earnings Date 10/09/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.5 million

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Adobe - ADBE - close: 45.03 change: -1.14 stop: 45.99

Investors were unhappy with CSCO's guidance and used it as an excuse to do some significant profit taking in technology stocks. ADBE was not spared and lost 2.4% on above average volume. ADBE broke support near $46.00 and hit our stop loss at $45.99.

Picked on October 09 at $45.05
Change since picked: - 0.02
Earnings Date 12/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million

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Hewlett Packard - HPQ - cls: 49.94 chg: -1.90 stop: 49.95

HPQ is another casualty of the sell-off in technology stocks today. Shares broke down under multiple levels of support and hit our stop at $49.95.

Picked on November 04 at $52.40
Change since picked: - 2.46
Earnings Date 11/19/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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Intel Corp. - INTC - cls: 25.93 change: -0.97 stop: 25.49

It's the same story, different stock with INTC. The sell-off in technology shares left no stone unturned and INTC plunged to an intraday low of $25.29 breaking through several layers of support. The stock hit our stop loss at $25.49.

Picked on November 04 at $26.80
Change since picked: - 0.87
Earnings Date 01/16/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 65.2 million

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Intuit - INTU - cls: 30.42 change: -0.55 stop: 30.75

INTU, a software company, saw its shares plunge lower during today's technology massacre. We would have been stopped out at $30.75.

Picked on November 04 at $32.54
Change since picked: - 1.57
Earnings Date 11/15/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million

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XTO Energy - XTO - cls: 64.57 change: +0.52 stop: 63.95

The oil sector did trade higher today but unfortunately shares of XTO dipped under the $64.00 level and hit our stop loss at $63.95. The afternoon bounce was not very convincing so any remaining bulls should be on the defensive.

Picked on November 01 at $67.25
Change since picked: - 2.68
Earnings Date 01/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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