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In Play Updates and Reviews

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Long Play Updates

Allstate Corp. - ALL - close: 53.18 chg: +0.05 stop: 49.99

ALL continued to show relative strength on Monday by posting another gain. However, the rally was struggling into the closing bell and shares had essentially rolled over. The stock looks poised to pull back toward what should be support near $52.00. We are suggesting readers jump in on a dip. Our suggested entry point would be on a dip into the $52.50-52.00 range. Our official "trigger" will be $52.50. However, given this bearish market environment, we would suggest that readers wait for signs of a bounce first before initiating positions instead of just buying ALL as it trades down through $52.50. Looking at the daily chart we do see some resistance near $56.75-57.00. Our target will be the $57.50-58.00 range or its 200-dma, whichever comes first. Our stop is at $49.99 but more conservative traders may want to use a stop loss closer to $51.00.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million


CVS Caremark - CVS - cls: 41.43 change: -0.13 stop: 39.85

Shares of CVS are still holding up pretty well. Friday's session produced a bearish reversal candlestick but today did not see a lot of follow through until right there at the very end near the closing bell. Look for a bounce near $41.25-41.00 or wait for a new relative high over $42.40 before initiating new positions. More conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop loss near $40.50. Our target is the $45.85-46.00 range. Our time frame is year-end.

Picked on November 07 at $42.15
Change since picked: - 0.72
Earnings Date 11/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.5 million


WMS Ind. - WMS - close: 34.44 chg: -0.59 stop: 32.39

WMS lost 1.69% but the selling seemed relatively mild. Readers can choose to buy a bounce here near $34.50 or wait for a new relative high over $36.00. Readers might want to tighten their stops! Our target is the $39.75-40.00 range. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $59 target.

Picked on November 08 at $36.11
Change since picked: - 1.67
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 630 thousand

Short Play Updates

Amgen - AMGN - close: 54.50 change: +0.22 stop: 57.76

If you just look at the closing numbers then AMGN's 22-cent gain looks like relative strength. However, if you look at the trading on the intraday chart the stock produced another failed rally pattern. this actually looks like a new entry for shorts although more conservative traders may want to wait for a new decline under $54.00 before starting positions. Our target is the $50.15-50.00 mark. More aggressive traders could aim for the August lows. Our stop is a little bit wide, which makes this higher risk. Furthermore any time you play a biotech company there is a higher level of risk. You never know when there will be a positive or negative press release about some drug, some clinical trial or some news from the FDA or a rival that could send shares of a biotech stock gapping either direction. FYI: In the news today it was revealed that AMGN had received two federal subpoenas over a couple of its products (source: AP). That's never good news and should reinforce the bearish trend.

Picked on November 11 at $54.28
Change since picked: + 0.22
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.4 million


Microchip Tech. - MCHP - cls: 30.65 change: -0.86 stop: 33.05

Technology stocks led the market lower on Monday. Or maybe the correct phrase is "bled" the market lower. Many of the recent high-flying tech stocks were crushed today. Meanwhile semiconductors continued to drift lower. MCHIP lost 2.7% and we remain bearish. More conservative traders might be tempted to tighten their stops. There is obvious support near $30 but our target is the $28.50-28.00 level. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target.

Picked on November 11 at $31.51
Change since picked: - 0.86
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million


NVIDIA - NVDA - cls: 30.03 change: -3.33 stop: 35.05

Ouch! It was a rough day for NVDA shareholders. The stock quickly broke down under technical support at the 100-dma. We were suggesting a trigger to short NVDA at $32.45. The stock blew right past it as it lost almost 10% to close near round-number support at $30.00. If you did open positions this morning we would SERIOUSLY consider covering and locking in a gain. Normally, when a stock closes at its low for the session, like NVDA did today, it's a bearish sign for tomorrow. However, the major stock indices continue to look very oversold and due for a bounce. The $30.00 level would be the perfect spot to look for an oversold bounce in NVDA. Now having said that our target remains the 200-dma, currently near $27.50. As expected the stock has produced a brand new Point & Figure chart sell signal and the new target is $23.00.

Picked on November 12 at $32.45
Change since picked: - 2.42
Earnings Date 11/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: thousand

Closed Long Plays

CSX Corp. - CSX - close: 42.71 change: -0.85 stop: 42.75

Transportation and railroad stocks continued lower in spite of a pull back in crude oil. Shares of CSX broke down under what should have been technical support at its rising 200-dma. We had been waiting for a breakout over resistance near $45.00 but that failed to occur. We're dropping CSX as a bullish candidate - the play unopened.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 thousand


Esterline Tech - ESL - cls: 52.55 change: -0.65 stop: 53.49

ESL has failed to rebound and today's session looks like a bearish failed rally pattern under its 50 and 10-dma. This looks more like a bearish entry point for shorts but the stock could have support near $51 and its 100-dma. We had been waiting for a breakout and suggested a trigger at $55.51 but that has failed to occur. We're dropping the play unopened.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 12/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 332 thousand


Gerdau Sa ADS - GGB - close: 27.31 change: -1.72 stop: 27.90

Metal, steel and mining stocks almost all turned lower today, some sharply lower. GGB lost almost 6% and broke down under what should have been support near $28.00. Shares hit our stop at $27.90 closing the play.

Picked on October 28 at $30.37
Change since picked: - 3.06
Earnings Date 11/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million


Companhia Vale Rio - RIO - cls: 32.85 change: -2.85 stop: 34.95

The once high-flying metal and mining stocks have been hit hard with profit taking. RIO broke down from its trading range and closed with an 8% loss today. Shares hit our stop loss at $34.95 relatively early this morning.

Picked on November 06 at $37.75
Change since picked: - 4.90
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 24.6 million

Closed Short Plays

NVE Corp. - NVEC - cls: 25.24 change: -0.97 stop: 28.76

Target achieved. The market's afternoon plunge gave NVEC the little extra oomph it needed to hit our target in the $25.50-25.00 range. If you did not exit we would suggest caution since NVEC is very oversold and $25.00 should be round-number, psychological support (and don't forget that NVEC has a relatively high amount of short interest).

Picked on October 22 at $29.30 *gap down entry
Change since picked: - 4.06
Earnings Date 10/17/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 76 thousand

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