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Long Play Updates

Allstate Corp. - ALL - close: 53.96 chg: -0.70 stop: 51.75

ALL got some positive analyst press today as S&P maintains their "buy" rating on the stock. Unfortunately for shareholders the news was not enough to produce any gains. ALL spiked to $55.25 this morning but the rally failed near its 50-dma. We would expect additional declines tomorrow. We are still sitting on the sidelines. It was our plan to catch a dip back into the $52.50-52.00 zone. That has yet to occur. Looking at the daily chart we do see some resistance near $56.75-57.00. Our target will be the $57.50-58.00 range or its 200-dma, whichever comes first.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million


CVS Caremark - CVS - cls: 41.80 change: -0.45 stop: 39.85

CVS had rallied to new highs by the afternoon. Unfortunately, the late day market sell-off hit CVS and erased all of its gains for the day. The action looks bearish but CVS has thus far maintained its bullish trend of higher lows. More conservative traders might want to consider a higher stop loss in case the stock does reverse. Our target is the $45.85-46.00 range. Our time frame is year-end.

Picked on November 07 at $42.15
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 11/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.5 million


UST Inc. - UST - close: 53.96 change: +0.03 stop: 51.99

UST continued to show relative strength and the stock hit a new three-month high at $54.55. Alas the gains were temporary. The market's widespread late day sell-off wiped out UST's progress. The stock did hit our suggested trigger to buy it at $54.41. The play is now open. However, the late day reversal is bearish and we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Odds look good that UST could retreat back to the $53.00 region before trying to bounce again. Our target is the $58.00-60.00 range. We would expect some short-term resistance near $56.00. The P&F chart is bullish with a $67 target.

Picked on November 14 at $54.41
Change since picked: - 0.45
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million


WMS Ind. - WMS - close: 34.01 chg: -0.97 stop: 32.39

WMS lost almost 3% on strong volume today. This is a bearish move and readers will want to consider an early exit now to cut their losses. We are going to stay with the play for now since WMS has not yet broken its bullish trendline of higher lows. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Readers might want to tighten their stops maybe toward $33.00 or $33.50. Our target is the $39.75-40.00 range. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $59 target.

Picked on November 08 at $36.11
Change since picked: - 2.10
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 630 thousand


Xilinx - XLNX - close: 23.15 change: -0.33 stop: 22.59

Tech stocks were unable to build on yesterday's bounce. This is definitely a bearish signal for the group and shares of XLNX. Today's rally attempt in XLNX struggled at the 10-dma. Adding XNLX was something of a hedge against our current semiconductor shorts and the stock did look like it was bouncing from significant support. At this point we would wait and watch for a bounce near $23.00 or near its recent low near $22.60 - only then would we consider new bullish positions. We would consider this an aggressive, higher-risk play since XNLX is still in a short-term down trend. We would expect some resistance near $24.00. Our short-term target is the $24.90-25.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: If you look at the weekly chart it almost looks like a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, which is just another reason why we'd consider this higher-risk.

Picked on November 13 at $23.48
Change since picked: - 0.33
Earnings Date 01/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.6 million

Short Play Updates

Amgen - AMGN - close: 53.63 change: -0.81 stop: 57.76

The good news here is that AMGN did not build on yesterday's intraday rebound. The pattern remains bearish. More conservative traders might want to think about a tighter stop loss. Our target is the $50.15-50.00 mark. More aggressive traders could aim for the August lows. Our stop is a little bit wide, which makes this higher risk. Furthermore any time you play a biotech company there is a higher level of risk. You never know when there will be a positive or negative press release about some drug, some clinical trial or some news from the FDA or a rival that could send shares of a biotech stock gapping either direction.

Picked on November 11 at $54.28
Change since picked: - 0.65
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.4 million


Microchip Tech. - MCHP - cls: 30.41 change: -0.49 stop: 33.05

The early morning and midday rally attempts in MCHP both failed. Shares produced another bearish engulfing candlestick. Everything looks like full speed ahead for the bears. More conservative traders might be tempted to tighten their stops. There is obvious support near $30 but our target is the $28.50-28.00 level. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target.

Picked on November 11 at $31.51
Change since picked: - 1.10
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million


NVIDIA - NVDA - cls: 32.17 change: -0.51 stop: 35.05

NVDA's rebound failed near $34.00 and the close back under its 100-dma is bearish. This looks like a new entry point for shorts. Conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss. Our target remains the 200-dma, currently near $27.50.

Picked on November 12 at $32.45
Change since picked: - 0.28
Earnings Date 11/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: thousand

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