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Long Play Updates

Allstate Corp. - ALL - close: 53.21 chg: -0.75 stop: 51.75

ALL continues to see some profit taking. The intraday low was $52.91. We are still sitting on the sidelines. It was our plan to catch a dip back into the $52.50-52.00 zone. That has yet to occur. Looking at the daily chart we do see some resistance near $56.75-57.00. Our target will be the $57.50-58.00 range or its 200-dma, whichever comes first.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million


CVS Caremark - CVS - cls: 42.02 change: +0.22 stop: 39.85

CVS just sort of drifted higher today. Bulls really didn't have the fuel to push the stock to new highs but the trend remains positive. More conservative traders might want to consider a higher stop loss in case the stock does reverse. Our target is the $45.85-46.00 range. Our time frame is year-end.

Picked on November 07 at $42.15
Change since picked: - 0.13
Earnings Date 11/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.5 million


UST Inc. - UST - close: 53.72 change: -0.24 stop: 51.99

We were pleasantly surprised that UST did not see more profit taking today. The stock tried to rally again this morning and hit $54.32 before paring its gains and closing back under resistance. The move today is still bearish but it could have been a lot worse. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Odds look good that UST could retreat back to the $53.00 region before trying to bounce again. Our target is the $58.00-60.00 range. We would expect some short-term resistance near $56.00. The P&F chart is bullish with a $67 target.

Picked on November 14 at $54.41
Change since picked: - 0.69
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million


WMS Ind. - WMS - close: 33.39 chg: -0.62 stop: 32.39

The consolidation in WMS is getting worse. It's probably time for us to plan an early exit. The stock pierced technical support at its rising 50-dma on an intraday basis. If WMS does not produce a bounce tomorrow we will suggest exiting early and cutting our losses. More conservative traders might just want to bail out now or raise their stops toward today's low at $32.77. We are not suggesting new positions. Getting triggered on the intraday spike above resistance near $36.00 was a bull trap. Our target is the $39.75-40.00 range. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $59 target.

Picked on November 08 at $36.11
Change since picked: - 2.72
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 630 thousand


Xilinx - XLNX - close: 23.04 change: -0.11 stop: 22.59

The semiconductor stocks and the tech sector continue to sink. However, shares of XNLX managed to bounce twice near $22.80 today. The stock remains in a bearish trend but bulls are trying to defend it near support. Aggressive traders willing to take the risk will be tempted to buy this dip. We would suggest waiting for a breakout over the 10-dma near $23.50. We would consider this an aggressive, higher-risk play since XNLX is still in a short-term down trend. We would expect some resistance near $24.00. Our short-term target is the $24.90-25.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: If you look at the weekly chart it almost looks like a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, which is just another reason why we'd consider this higher-risk.

Picked on November 13 at $23.48
Change since picked: - 0.44
Earnings Date 01/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.6 million

Short Play Updates

Amgen - AMGN - close: 54.79 change: +1.16 stop: 57.76

AMGN and GENZ accounted for almost all the gains in the biotech sector today. AMGN managed a 2.1% gain after being upgraded this morning. The rally stalled near resistance at the $55 region. The overall trend still looks bearish but watch for a failed rally near $55 or its 10-dma (near $55.85) before considering new shorts. More conservative traders might want to think about a tighter stop loss. Our target is the $50.15-50.00 mark. More aggressive traders could aim for the August lows. Our stop is a little bit wide, which makes this higher risk. Furthermore any time you play a biotech company there is a higher level of risk. You never know when there will be a positive or negative press release about some drug, some clinical trial or some news from the FDA or a rival that could send shares of a biotech stock gapping either direction.

Picked on November 11 at $54.28
Change since picked: + 0.51
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.4 million


Microchip Tech. - MCHP - cls: 30.70 change: +0.29 stop: 33.05

We warned readers that the $30.00 level would probably be support. Shares of MCHP tested $30.00 (actually 29.96) before bouncing back this morning. The overall trend remains bearish but there could still be some pop left in this oversold bounce. The $32.00 level should be overhead resistance and we're thinking about lowering our stop loss. Our target is the $28.50-28.00 level. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target.

Picked on November 11 at $31.51
Change since picked: - 0.81
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million


NVIDIA - NVDA - cls: 31.74 change: -0.43 stop: 35.05

NVDA gapped down this morning but managed to fill the gap midday and then close with a 1.3% loss. The overall pattern remains bearish. Conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss. Our target remains the 200-dma, currently near $27.50.

Picked on November 12 at $32.45
Change since picked: - 0.71
Earnings Date 11/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: thousand

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