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Long Play Updates

CVS Caremark - CVS - cls: 41.04 change: -0.90 stop: 39.85

Warning! Lack of follow through on Friday's bounce is negative. CVS erased Friday's gains and the two-day move is a clear bearish reversal. We would strongly consider an early exit right here to cut your losses. Please note that we fully expect CVS to trade lower toward support near $40.00 and its rising 50-dma. If you do not want to endure that pull back then exit now. Short-term technicals have turned bearish. If you're looking for bullish positions then sit back and wait for a bounce near $40.00. We are going to repost the comments from this weekend about CVS' short interest... On November 21st Reuters published an article showing the five stocks on the NYSE with the biggest increase in short interest. CVS topped the list. Short interest as of October 31st was 37.8 million shares. Short interest as of November 15th was 67.6 million shares. That is almost six days worth of short interest. There are a lot of people betting that CVS has topped out and any further strength, especially a new high, could produce a nice short squeeze!

Picked on November 07 at $42.15
Change since picked: - 1.11
Earnings Date 11/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.5 million

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Coca-Cola - KO - close: 61.73 change: -0.57 stop: 59.59

KO is starting to cave in to some profit taking. The stock closed under short-term support near $62.00. At this time we would expect a decline toward $61.00. The stock should also have additional support near $60.00. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Wait for a bounce. Our end of year target is the $66.00-67.00 range. The bullish P&F chart suggests a $69 target.

Picked on November 15 at $61.95
Change since picked: - 0.22
Earnings Date 01/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.3 million

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UST Inc. - UST - close: 54.68 change: -0.47 stop: 51.99

UST managed to hit another new relative high but quickly gave back all of its gains by the closing bell. Short-term we would expect a dip toward the 10-dma or support near $54.00. Wait for a bounce there before considering new positions. The P&F chart's buy signal has seen the target grow from $67 to $70 this past week. Our target is the $58.00-60.00 range. We would expect some short-term resistance near $56.00.

Picked on November 14 at $54.41
Change since picked: + 0.27
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
 

Short Play Updates

Amgen - AMGN - close: 52.68 change: -1.08 stop: 56.26

AMGN rolled over again. Today's move looks like a failed rally under $54.00 and its 10-dma, which is a good sign for the bears. More aggressive traders may want to keep their stop above the 200-dma (around $57.02). Our target is the $50.15-50.00 mark. More aggressive traders could aim for the August lows. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $39 target. Any time you play a biotech company there is a higher level of risk. You never know when there will be a positive or negative press release about some drug, some clinical trial or some news from the FDA or a rival that could send shares of a biotech stock gapping either direction.

Picked on November 11 at $54.28
Change since picked: - 1.60
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.4 million

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W.R. Berkley - BER - close: 28.47 chg: -0.56 stop: 30.55

The oversold bounce in BER is finally starting to fade. This looks like a new bearish entry point. More conservative traders could wait for a decline under $28.00 to initiate positions but if you do wait then tighten your stop loss toward $29.26. Our target is the $26.00-25.50 zone. The P&F chart points to a $14 target.

Picked on November 19 at $28.40
Change since picked: + 0.07
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Cousins Properties - CUZ - close: 22.20 change: -1.38 stop: 25.05*new*

REIT stocks were hit hard today and CUZ lost 5.8% on above average volume. The stock closed at new relative lows, which is good news for the bears. We're adjusting our stop loss to $25.05. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. The latest data puts short interest at over 10% of the 36.8 million-share float, which raises the risk of a short squeeze, especially with the stock near support.

Picked on November 19 at $23.65
Change since picked: - 1.45
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 506 thousand

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Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 31.60 change: -1.46 stop: 35.05

Our new bearish play in MNST is now open. The market's sell-off helped push MNST through significant support at the $32.50 level. Our trigger to short the stock was at $32.35. MNST closed at new two-year lows. We have two targets. Our first target is the $30.15-30.00 range. Our second target is the $28.50-27.50 zone. The bearish P&F chart points to a $26 target.

Picked on November 26 at $32.35 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.75
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 25.56 change: -0.24 stop: 28.05

MRX did not move much today but the trend continues to look bearish. We would still consider new shorts here. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $27.00. Our target is the $23.00-22.50 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: Any time we play a biotech stock we're dealing with a high-risk situation. MRX seems to be more of a drug company but we're still at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. Furthermore the most recent data puts short interest at more than 23% of MRX's 49.2 million-share float. That is a high-degree of short interest and raises the risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on November 18 at $26.08
Change since picked: - 0.52
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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NVIDIA - NVDA - cls: 29.52 change: -0.70 stop: 33.05 *new*

NVDA has produced a failed rally under its 10-dma. The stock looks set to make a run towards support at its 200-dma, which happens to be our target. We're going to adjust our exit zone to $27.90-27.70. We are also adjusting our stop loss to $33.05. More conservative traders may want to do a little profit taking here.

Picked on November 12 at $32.45
Change since picked: - 2.93
Earnings Date 11/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 12.6 million

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Patterson-UTI Energy - PTEN - cls: 18.81 chg: -0.55 stop: 20.05

Oil stocks witnesses some heavy selling today. The OIX index lost 2.7% and the OSX index lost 1.1%. Shares of PTEN slipped 2.8% and broke down under support to multi-year lows. Our suggested trigger for shorts was at $18.95 so the play is now open. Our target is the $17.50-17.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 10% of the stock's 152 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on November 26 at $18.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.14
Earnings Date 02/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million

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Trimble Navigation - TRMB - cls: 35.29 chg: -0.20 stop: 38.26

The market's heavy selling today may have cut TRMB's oversold bounce short. The stock looks poised to move lower again. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but this could be a new entry point if you wanted to use a much tighter stop loss (maybe $36.26). Our target is the 200-dma and we're suggesting an exit in the $33.00-32.90 zone for now. The P&F chart is bearish with a $30.00 target. FYI: Short interest looks pretty low, which is surprising and may be out of date.

Picked on November 19 at $37.25
Change since picked: - 1.96
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 970 thousand

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Virgin Media - VMED - cls: 17.71 change: -0.86 stop: 19.31

VMED's sell-off continued on Monday. The stock lost 4.6% and broke down under the $18.00 level. Our suggested trigger to short the stock was at $17.99 so the play is now open. Our target is the $15.25-15.00 range. FYI: Don't be surprised if the stock sees some sort of oversold bounce near $17.45, which is the November low.

Picked on November 26 at $17.99 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.28
Earnings Date 11/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.7 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Cicso Systems - CSCO - cls: 27.49 chg: -1.19 stop: 27.89

CSCO's bounce attempt has been killed by analyst comments. A Morgan Stanley analyst issued some concerns over CSCO's emerging market business in spite of their firm's "buy" rating on CSCO. The stock broke down under support at $28.00 and closed with a 4.1% loss on heavy volume. Our stop loss was at $27.89.

Picked on November 18 at $29.94
Change since picked: - 1.25
Earnings Date 02/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 50.7 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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