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Long Play Updates

CVS Caremark - CVS - cls: 41.16 change: +0.12 stop: 39.85

We were expecting a dip toward $40.00 but the market rally inspired some buying and bulls bought the dip at $40.44. We remain wary of the recent action in CVS and would hesitate to open new positions here. If the stock can hit new highs shares might see a huge short squeeze. Our target is the $45.85-46.00 range.

Picked on November 07 at $42.15
Change since picked: - 0.99
Earnings Date 11/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.5 million

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Coca-Cola - KO - close: 62.98 change: +1.25 stop: 59.59

A triple-digit gain in the DJIA helped power a 2% gain for Dow-component KO. We remain bullish on KO with the stock above $60.00 but more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $61.00. Our end of year target is the $66.00-67.00 range. The bullish P&F chart suggests a $69 target.

Picked on November 15 at $61.95
Change since picked: + 0.53
Earnings Date 01/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.3 million

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UST Inc. - UST - close: 55.63 change: +0.95 stop: 52.95 *new*

Tobacco stocks got a boost today after some positive comments from a Goldman Sachs analyst. Shares of UST turned in a strong performance up 1.7% and closing at a new relative high. We are raising our stop loss to $52.95. More conservative traders could try putting their stop closer to support near $54.00. Our target is the $58.00-60.00 range. We would expect some short-term resistance near $56.00.

Picked on November 14 at $54.41
Change since picked: + 1.22
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
 

Short Play Updates

Amgen - AMGN - close: 54.02 change: +1.34 stop: 56.26

The BTK biotech index out performed the broader market today with a 2.2% gain. Fueling the move was a 2.5% rebound in AMGN. The action in AMGN over the last four days now is starting to concern us. Shares look like they're trying to put in a bottom. The stock continues to have overhead resistance near $55 and again at $56 but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $50.15-50.00 mark. More aggressive traders could aim for the August lows. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $39 target. Any time you play a biotech company there is a higher level of risk. You never know when there will be a positive or negative press release about some drug, some clinical trial or some news from the FDA or a rival that could send shares of a biotech stock gapping either direction.

Picked on November 11 at $54.28
Change since picked: - 0.26
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.4 million

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W.R. Berkley - BER - close: 29.14 chg: +0.67 stop: 30.55

Yesterday's failed rally has reversed thanks to the huge market rally today. BER hit a new short-term high and is now testing technical resistance at the 10-dma. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $26.00-25.50 zone. The P&F chart points to a $14 target.

Picked on November 19 at $28.40
Change since picked: + 0.74
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Cousins Properties - CUZ - close: 22.74 change: +0.54 stop: 25.05

We do not see any real changes from our previous comments on CUZ. Shares are still in a bearish trend although they remain oversold and could easily see more of a bounce. Watch for short-term resistance at the 10-dma near $23.82. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. The latest data puts short interest at over 10% of the 36.8 million-share float, which raises the risk of a short squeeze, especially with the stock near support.

Picked on November 19 at $23.65
Change since picked: - 0.91
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 506 thousand

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Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 31.79 change: +0.19 stop: 35.05

MNST continues to look weak. The bounce today under performed the market indices. We remain bearish although we would suggest patience here. If the market continues to bounce then MNST might rally back toward $34.00 or its 10-dma. Wait to see if shares rebound or continue lower. We have two targets. Our first target is the $30.15-30.00 range. Our second target is the $28.50-27.50 zone. The bearish P&F chart points to a $26 target.

Picked on November 26 at $32.35 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.56
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 25.86 change: +0.30 stop: 28.05

We need to urge caution here as well. MRX is starting to build a bottom with the sideways consolidation over the last few days. Wait to see if the market has any follow through on today's rally before considering new positions in MRX. More conservative traders may want to lower their stops. Our target is the $23.00-22.50 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: Any time we play a biotech stock we're dealing with a high-risk situation. MRX seems to be more of a drug company but we're still at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. Furthermore the most recent data puts short interest at more than 23% of MRX's 49.2 million-share float. That is a high-degree of short interest and raises the risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on November 18 at $26.08
Change since picked: - 0.22
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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NVIDIA - NVDA - cls: 30.79 change: +1.27 stop: 33.05

Ouch! The rebound in NVDA took a 4.3% chunk from the bears' recent gains. The stock is starting to look like it's formed a bottom near $30 and its exponential 200-dma. Aggressive bulls might be tempted to use this as an entry point. We seriously considered exiting NVDA early right here. However, the major indices are still in a bearish trend and NVDA still has short-term resistance near $32.00. More conservative traders may want to exit early anyway or lower their stops toward $32.00. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We have been targeting the 200-dma with a $27.90-27.70 exit range.

Picked on November 12 at $32.45
Change since picked: - 1.66
Earnings Date 11/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 12.6 million

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Patterson-UTI Energy - PTEN - cls: 18.69 chg: -0.12 stop: 20.05

PTEN continues to show relative weakness. The stock ignored the market's big rebound and closed at another new multi-year low. Our target is the $17.50-17.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 10% of the stock's 152 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on November 26 at $18.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.26
Earnings Date 02/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million

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Trimble Navigation - TRMB - cls: 35.86 chg: +0.57 stop: 38.26

The situation with NVDA and TRMB look similar. TRMB is starting to look like it's found a bottom near $35.00 and if the markets keep bouncing then bulls will be tempted to jump in thinking this is an entry point. We would seriously consider exiting early right here. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the 200-dma and we're suggesting an exit in the $33.00-32.90 zone for now. The P&F chart is bearish with a $30.00 target. FYI: Short interest looks pretty low, which is surprising and may be out of date.

Picked on November 19 at $37.25
Change since picked: - 1.39
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 970 thousand

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Virgin Media - VMED - cls: 18.34 change: +0.63 stop: 19.31

VMED recouped the majority of yesterday's losses with a 3.5% gain today. The overall trend is still bearish but if VMED can build on this bounce then yesterday will be a higher low in the beginning of a potential bottom for the stock. Trade carefully here! Our target is the $15.25-15.00 range.

Picked on November 26 at $17.99 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.35
Earnings Date 11/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.7 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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