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Long Play Updates

CVS Caremark - CVS - cls: 41.20 change: +0.04 stop: 39.85

The action in CVS over the last couple of days can be classified as disappointing. The stock has essentially ignored the market's big two-day bounce. Volume on today's session was way above average and given the lack of movement that's probably a bearish signal. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops! If the stock can hit new highs shares might see a huge short squeeze. Our target is the $45.85-46.00 range.

Picked on November 07 at $42.15
Change since picked: - 0.95
Earnings Date 11/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.5 million

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Coca-Cola - KO - close: 62.99 change: +0.35 stop: 59.59

It's hard for KO not to be up on a day that the DJIA rallies 331 points. However, KO's performance today was pretty lackluster at best. The trend remains bullish but patient traders may want to wait for another dip near $62.00 before considering new positions. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $61.00. Our end of year target is the $66.00-67.00 range. The bullish P&F chart suggests a $69 target.

Picked on November 15 at $61.95
Change since picked: + 1.04
Earnings Date 01/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.3 million

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UST Inc. - UST - close: 56.58 change: +0.95 stop: 52.95

The market's rally has given UST's bullish trend some additional fuel. The stock soared 1.7% to new six-month highs and a breakthrough over resistance near $56. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders could try putting their stop closer to support near $54.00. Our target is the $58.00-60.00 range.

Picked on November 14 at $54.41
Change since picked: + 2.17
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
 

Short Play Updates

Amgen - AMGN - close: 54.71 change: +0.69 stop: 56.26

Readers might want to consider an early exit in AMGN. The biotech sector was strong today. The BTK index appears to have broken out from its bearish channel. Further strength in the group will definitely make it harder for the bears in AMGN. Shares of AMGN still have resistance near $55 and $56 but we're reluctant to bet on it. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $50.15-50.00 mark. More aggressive traders could aim for the August lows. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $39 target. Any time you play a biotech company there is a higher level of risk. You never know when there will be a positive or negative press release about some drug, some clinical trial or some news from the FDA or a rival that could send shares of a biotech stock gapping either direction.

Picked on November 11 at $54.28
Change since picked: + 0.43
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.4 million

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W.R. Berkley - BER - close: 29.97 chg: +0.83 stop: 30.55

The oversold bounce in BER continues. The stock rose 2.8% and closed over technical resistance at the 50-dma. Shares are now testing round-number resistance at $30.00. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward the $30.00 mark. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $26.00-25.50 zone. The P&F chart points to a $14 target.

Picked on November 19 at $28.40
Change since picked: + 1.57
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Cousins Properties - CUZ - close: 23.94 change: +1.20 stop: 25.05

Our bearish play on CUZ has reversed into positive territory. Shares rose 5.27% as shorts panicked and covered. The trend in CUZ is still bearish but the bounce may not be over yet. Look for short-term resistance at $24.00 and again at $25.00. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. The latest data puts short interest at over 10% of the 36.8 million-share float, which raises the risk of a short squeeze, especially with the stock near support.

Picked on November 19 at $23.65
Change since picked: + 0.29
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 506 thousand

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Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 33.22 change: +1.43 stop: 35.05

MNST also produced an oversold bounce to the tune of 4.49%. The trend is still bearish but the bounce may not be over. Look for resistance near $34.00 or its 10-dma. A failed rally at either could be used as a new bearish entry point. We have two targets. Our first target is the $30.15-30.00 range. Our second target is the $28.50-27.50 zone. The bearish P&F chart points to a $26 target.

Picked on November 26 at $32.35 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.87
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 26.39 change: +0.53 stop: 28.05

Readers will want to reconsider their positions in MRX. We recently warned you that the stock looked like it was building a bottom. Today's bounce back above $26.00 doesn't help nor the close over its 10-dma. More conservative traders may want to abandon the ship early right here and cut their losses now. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. Watch for some potential resistance near $27.00. Our target is the $23.00-22.50 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: Any time we play a biotech stock we're dealing with a high-risk situation. MRX seems to be more of a drug company but we're still at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. Furthermore the most recent data puts short interest at more than 23% of MRX's 49.2 million-share float. That is a high-degree of short interest and raises the risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on November 18 at $26.08
Change since picked: + 0.31
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Patterson-UTI Energy - PTEN - cls: 18.66 chg: -0.03 stop: 20.05

There is no change here. PTEN is still showing relative weakness, which is exactly what we want to see. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $19.00. Our target is the $17.50-17.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 10% of the stock's 152 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on November 26 at $18.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.29
Earnings Date 02/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million

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Trimble Navigation - TRMB - cls: 37.17 chg: +1.31 stop: 38.26

The market's big rally today fueled a 3.6% gain in TRMB. We have been warning readers that the stock may have put in a short-term bottom. While the bounce in TRMB looks pretty bullish the stock continues to have resistance near $38.00 and its 100-dma. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to exit early now to cut their losses. Our target is the 200-dma and we're suggesting an exit in the $33.00-32.90 zone for now. The P&F chart is bearish with a $30.00 target. FYI: Short interest looks pretty low, which is surprising and may be out of date.

Picked on November 19 at $37.25
Change since picked: - 0.08
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 970 thousand

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Virgin Media - VMED - cls: 18.96 change: +0.62 stop: 19.31

VMED produced another big move thanks to the widespread market rally... I mean short covering. The stock failed to rally past last week's high but if the markets can rally for a third day in a row then we would expect to be stopped out. Volume behind today's 3.38% move was above average and that's bullish. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Trade carefully here! Our target is the $15.25-15.00 range.

Picked on November 26 at $17.99 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.95
Earnings Date 11/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.7 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

NVIDIA - NVDA - cls: 32.85 change: +2.06 stop: 33.05

A continuation of yesterday's oversold bounce in NVDA is not a surprise. We have been warning readers that NVDA might be building a bottom near $30.00. What is a surprise is the 6.69% gain and the gap higher this morning. Shorts were running for cover and the stock hit our stop loss at $33.05 closing the play. Kudos to any readers that locked in a gain near $30.00.

Picked on November 12 at $32.45
Change since picked: + 0.40
Earnings Date 11/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 12.6 million
 

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