Long Play Updates
Coca-Cola - KO - close: 62.79 change: -0.20 stop: 59.59
If you haven't noticed by now shares of KO are somewhat slow in their advance higher. Shares have been churning sideways for about two weeks. We remain bullish but readers looking for new positions may want to wait for another dip near $62.00. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $61.00. Our end of year target is the $66.00-67.00 range. The bullish P&F chart suggests a $69 target.
Picked on November 15 at $61.95
UST Inc. - UST - close: 57.05 change: +0.47 stop: 53.85 *new*
UST continues to show relative strength with another new relative high. Shares are beginning to look a little short-term overbought and due for a dip. We would expect UST to find short-term support at the rising 10-dma near $55. We're adjusting the stop loss to $53.85, just under support near $54.00. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $58.00-60.00 range.
Picked on November 14 at $54.41
Short Play Updates
Amgen - AMGN - close: 55.46 change: +0.75 stop: 56.26
Biotech stocks continue to creep higher following yesterday's bullish breakout. AMGN just added 1.3% and closed over potential resistance at $55.00. The MACD indicator on the daily chart is nearing a new buy signal. AMGN should find additional resistance near $56.00 and its 50-dma but that may not matter if the major averages continue to surge higher. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $50.15-50.00 mark. More aggressive traders could aim for the August lows. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $39 target. Any time you play a biotech company there is a higher level of risk. You never know when there will be a positive or negative press release about some drug, some clinical trial or some news from the FDA or a rival that could send shares of a biotech stock gapping either direction.
Picked on November 11 at $54.28
Cousins Properties - CUZ - close: 23.71 change: -0.23 stop: 25.05
As expected CUZ continued to see more of an oversold bounce. However, the rebound ran out of fuel near $24.40. We remain cautious following yesterday's bullish breakout over the 10-dma but the overall trend in CUZ is still bearish. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. The latest data puts short interest at over 10% of the 36.8 million-share float, which raises the risk of a short squeeze, especially with the stock near support.
Picked on November 19 at $23.65
Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 33.36 change: +0.14 stop: 35.05
MNST bounced again but the rally struggled near $34.00 and its falling 10-dma. A new decline under $32.50 could be used as a new entry point for shorts. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $34.00. We have two targets. Our first target is the $30.15-30.00 range. Our second target is the $28.50-27.50 zone. The bearish P&F chart points to a $26 target.
Picked on November 26 at $32.35 *triggered
Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 26.39 change: +0.53 stop: 28.05
Shorts need to decide how much pain they are willing to endure. The larger trend in MRX is bearish but short-term the stock looks like it has produced a bottom. The question is whether or not MRX will find resistance at $27.00 and again near $28.00. More conservative traders might want to adjust their stop lower toward $27.50 or toward $27.00. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $23.00-22.50 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: Any time we play a biotech stock we're dealing with a high-risk situation. MRX seems to be more of a drug company but we're still at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. Furthermore the most recent data puts short interest at more than 23% of MRX's 49.2 million-share float. That is a high-degree of short interest and raises the risk for a short squeeze.
Picked on November 18 at $26.08
Patterson-UTI Energy - PTEN - cls: 18.91 chg: +0.25 stop: 20.05
After three days of relative weakness we're finally seeing an oversold bounce in PTEN. A failed rally here near $19.00, or near the 10-dma (near $19.30), or even near $20.00 could be used as a new entry point for shorts. Obviously we would prefer to see the stock roll over here or near the 10-dma. Our target is the $17.50-17.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 10% of the stock's 152 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on November 26 at $18.95 *triggered
Trimble Navigation - TRMB - cls: 36.88 chg: -0.29 stop: 38.26
We don't see any changes from our Wednesday comments on TRMB. The bounce has run into resistance near its 100-dma and the $37.50 level. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to exit early now to cut their losses. Our target is the 200-dma and we're suggesting an exit in the $33.00-32.90 zone for now. The P&F chart is bearish with a $30.00 target. FYI: Short interest looks pretty low, which is surprising and may be out of date.
Picked on November 19 at $37.25
Virgin Media - VMED - cls: 18.57 change: -0.39 stop: 19.31
The bears made a comeback today with a 2% decline in VMED. Yesterday the stock had rallied toward resistance. Then again today's drop might just be profit taking. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Trade carefully here! VMED can be somewhat volatile. Our target is the $15.25-15.00 range.
Picked on November 26 at $17.99 *triggered
Closed Long Plays
CVS Caremark - CVS - cls: 40.06 change: -1.44 stop: 39.85
This morning CVS announced that its November same-store sales were up 4.4%. Yet the real news, the news that sent the stock plunging lower, was an announcement from Walgreens (WAG) that it was dropping CVS as one of its prescription drug plans they serviced. Shares of CVS dropped to an intraday low of $39.67. Our stop loss was at $39.85. It would be tempting to short CVS under $40.00 but the weekly chart has a very consistent trendline of support dating back to the November 2006 low. CVS will probably bounce in the $38-39 region.
Picked on November 07 at $42.15
W.R. Berkley - BER - close: 30.15 chg: +0.18 stop: 30.55
BER has not yet hit our stop loss at $30.55 but we're suggesting an early exit anyway. The rally continued on Thursday and BER broke through round-number resistance at the $30.00 level. The stock does have additional resistance at its descending 200-dma near $31.30 but we're not willing to endure that big of a bounce. Readers can keep an eye on the 200-dma for a failed rally as a potential entry point for new shorts.
Picked on November 19 at $28.40
Closed Short Plays