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Long Play Updates

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 37.35 change: -0.51 stop: 34.95

We do not see any changes from our weekend comments on ACI. The stock did pull back on Monday but not enough. We are looking for a dip toward $36.00. Our suggested entry point to buy ACI is the $36.50-36.00 range. We'll use a stop loss at $34.95. Conservative traders could adjust their stops closer to $36. Our target is the $41.50-42.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $68 target.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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Canadian Natl.Railway - CNI - cls: 48.13 chg: -0.91 stop: 45.99

We were suggesting an entry point in the $48.00-47.00 zone and CNI hit $47.70 this morning so the play is now open. The stock lost 1.8% in spite of news that the company has negotiated a deal to buy back 5 million shares through private agreements as part of its 33 million-share buyback program. CNI currently has about 494.5 million shares outstanding. Now that the play is open our target is the $51.85-52.00 range. However, we suspect that CNI will dip again tomorrow. Readers can eye a pull back near $47.50-47.00 as another entry point but wait for signs of a bounce first. Readers might want to watch the DJUSRR railroad index to see if the sector can breakout over its trend of lower highs. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish following the November sell-off.

Picked on December 03 at $48.00 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.13
Earnings Date 01/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Fresh Del Monte - FDP - close: 31.16 chg: +0.24 stop: 28.39

FDG continued to show relative strength on Monday and rallied to $32.19 before reversing. The action today looks like a short-term top and we would expect a pull back toward support. Currently we're suggesting a trigger to buy FDP in the $30.15-29.00 range. We would seriously consider adjusting that entry zone to $29.50-29.00 but we'll keep our original plan for now. Look for signs of a bounce before opening positions. Aggressive traders will want to put their stop loss under $27.50. We're suggesting a stop at $28.39. We have two targets. Our first target is the $32.50 mark, which was resistance back in October. Our second target is the $34.00-35.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish from the early November sell-off.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/27/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 685 thousand

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Coca-Cola - KO - close: 62.20 change: +0.10 stop: 59.59

There is no change from our previous comments on KO. The stock consolidated sideways in the $62-63 range. Right now we would be looking for a dip near $61 as a potential entry point. It is worth noting that short-term technicals like the RSI are looking bearish and suggesting further short-term weakness. Our end of year target is the $66.00-67.00 range. The bullish P&F chart suggests a $69 target.

Picked on November 15 at $61.95
Change since picked: + 0.25
Earnings Date 01/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.3 million

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PC Mall - MALL - close: 10.87 change: -0.00 stop: 9.49

MALL experienced some profit taking this morning but eventually closed unchanged on the session. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments so we're reposting them here: We would consider MALL an aggressive bullish play due to volatility in the stock price. Shares were cut in half from the peak near $20.00 to the recent lows under $10.00. The current bounce is a bounce from significant support (see chart). We suspect that shares will dip again before any further gains. Our suggested entry point to buy the stock is the $10.25-10.00 zone. We would strongly suggest you wait for signs of a bounce first once MALL enters this region. We're putting the stop loss under the recent low. We have two targets. Our first target is the $12.25-12.50 zone near its 200-dma. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.75-14.00 region. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish following the sharp sell-off.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/04/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 356 thousand

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Children's Place - PLCE - cls: 28.89 chg: +0.43 stop: 24.90

PLCE displayed some early morning strength with a breakout over its 100-dma but after the initial pop the stock traded sideways in a very narrow range. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments so we're reposting them here: PLCE appears to have built a significant bottom over the last two months. The recent rally follows some positive earnings guidance from the company. The breakout over resistance in the $27.00-27.50 zone is encouraging but the stock is currently stalled near its 100d-ma. We suspect PLCE is overdue for a little profit taking. We are suggesting that readers buy a dip in the $26.50-26.00 zone. If triggered our target is the $29.85-30.00 range. We might consider a more aggressive target near $32.50 but the $30 level looks like it could be tough resistance. The P&F chart is actually bullish with a $36 target. FYI: PLCE will announce its November sales numbers on December 6th ahead of the opening bell.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million
 

Short Play Updates

Amgen - AMGN - close: 55.09 change: -0.16 stop: 56.26

Shares of AMGN spiked lower at the open this morning on the negative Aranesp news we mentioned over the weekend. AMGN managed to recover most of its losses and spent the majority of the day trading sideways in a narrow range. The overall trend continues to look bearish. Our target is the $50.15-50.00 mark. More aggressive traders could aim for the August lows. We want to point out again that the weekly chart shows the potential for an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $39 target. Any time you play a biotech company there is a higher level of risk. You never know when there will be a positive or negative press release about some drug, some clinical trial or some news from the FDA or a rival that could send shares of a biotech stock gapping either direction.

Picked on November 11 at $54.28
Change since picked: + 0.81
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.4 million

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Cousins Properties - CUZ - close: 23.77 change: -0.00 stop: 25.05

CUZ closed unchanged on the session after trading sideways all day. We would suggest waiting for a new decline under $23.50 or $23.40 before initiating new shorts. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward Friday's highs. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. The latest data puts short interest at over 10% of the 36.8 million-share float, which raises the risk of a short squeeze, especially with the stock near support.

Picked on November 19 at $23.65
Change since picked: + 0.12
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 506 thousand

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Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 32.13 change: -1.64 stop: 35.05

MNST under performed the markets on Monday with a sharp spike lower. The stock closed at its lows for the day with a 4.8% decline. This looks like a new entry point for shorts. More conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop loss near $34.00. We have two targets. Our first target is the $30.15-30.00 range. Our second target is the $28.50-27.50 zone. The bearish P&F chart points to a $26 target.

Picked on November 26 at $32.35 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.22
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 26.92 change: +0.02 stop: 28.05

We remain wary of the trading in MRX. The stock is still trying to bounce. The stock is quickly approaching its trendline of lower highs and if the stock continues higher it should hit the trendline (of resistance) in the $27.25-27.50 zone. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $23.00-22.50 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: Any time we play a biotech stock we're dealing with a high-risk situation. MRX seems to be more of a drug company but we're still at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. Furthermore the most recent data puts short interest at more than 23% of MRX's 49.2 million-share float. That is a high-degree of short interest and raises the risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on November 18 at $26.08
Change since picked: + 0.74
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Patterson-UTI Energy - PTEN - cls: 18.89 chg: +0.04 stop: 20.05

Monday provided traders an interesting test of resistance in PTEN. The stock traded at resistance near $19.00 and its descending 10-dma before rolling over this afternoon. Further weakness from here can be used as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $17.50-17.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 10% of the stock's 152 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on November 26 at $18.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.08
Earnings Date 02/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million

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Trimble Navigation - TRMB - cls: 37.35 chg: +0.28 stop: 38.26

TRMB displayed some relative strength on Monday but the stock remains under resistance near $38.00. We are repeating this weekend's suggestion that readers may want to wait for a new decline under $36.75 before initiating new positions. More conservative traders might want to inch their stop loss down toward $38.00. Our target is the 200-dma and we're suggesting an exit in the $33.50-33.00 zone for now. The P&F chart is bearish with a $30.00 target. FYI: Short interest looks pretty low, which is surprising and may be out of date.

Picked on November 19 at $37.25
Change since picked: + 0.10
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 970 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

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