Long Play Updates
Arch Coal - ACI - close: 37.65 change: +0.20 stop: 34.95
Our plan to buy a dip in ACI may not pan out. Shares have traded sideways in the $37.00-38.10 zone for the last four days. Today's rally wasn't very impressive but the stock didn't sell-off during the market weakness. We're going to stick to our plan for now but readers might want to consider jumping in now near $38 (or over $38.25) and just raising your stop toward $36.00. Currently, our suggested entry point to buy ACI is the $36.50-36.00 range. We'll use a stop loss at $34.95. Conservative traders could adjust their stops closer to $36. Our target is the $41.50-42.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $68 target.
Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Canadian Natl.Railway - CNI - cls: 48.67 chg: +0.45 stop: 45.99
Railroad stocks did well in the rally today. CNI under performed its peers but still produced a 0.9% gain. We remain bullish and would buy this bounce. Our target is the $51.85-52.00 range. Readers might want to watch the DJUSRR railroad index to see if the sector can breakout over its trend of lower highs. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish following the November sell-off.
Picked on December 03 at $48.00 *triggered
Coca-Cola - KO - close: 63.05 change: +0.30 stop: 59.59
KO is not a very fast mover but it continues to inch higher. The close over $63.00 is bullish. Our end of year target is the $66.00-67.00 range. The bullish P&F chart suggests a $69 target.
Picked on November 15 at $61.95
PC Mall - MALL - close: 11.13 change: +0.54 stop: 9.49
So far so good. MALL rallied another 5% following yesterday's intraday rebound from support. The stock might encounter some resistance in the $11.40-11.60 zone but we don't see any changes from our previous comments. Daily technicals continue to look bullish. We have two targets. Our first target is the $12.25-12.50 zone near its 200-dma. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.75-14.00 region. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish following the sharp sell-off. We would consider this an aggressive play given the stock's volatility and our wide stop loss.
Picked on December 04 at $10.25 *triggered
Children's Place - PLCE - cls: 29.39 chg: +0.64 stop: 24.90
We may be out of luck with PLCE. Our plan is to buy a dip but shares are not cooperating as they continue to rise. The stock is nearing potential resistance near $30.00 so we're not going to drop the play just yet. n are suggesting that readers buy a dip in the $26.50-26.00 zone. If triggered our target is the $29.85-30.00 range. We might consider a more aggressive target near $32.50 but the $30 level looks like it could be tough resistance. The P&F chart is actually bullish with a $36 target. FYI: PLCE will announce its November sales numbers on December 6th ahead of the opening bell.
Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Short Play Updates
Amgen - AMGN - close: 54.89 change: -0.02 stop: 56.26
It was an uncomfortable day to be a bear. AMGN's under performance and failure to rally is a good sign if you're holding puts but we can't say how long this relative weakness will last. We're not suggesting new positions at this time and if the major averages continue to rally you might want to exit early out of AMGN puts. Our target is the $50.15-50.00 mark. More aggressive traders could aim for the August lows. We want to point out again that the weekly chart shows the potential for an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $39 target. Any time you play a biotech company there is a higher level of risk. You never know when there will be a positive or negative press release about some drug, some clinical trial or some news from the FDA or a rival that could send shares of a biotech stock gapping either direction.
Picked on November 11 at $54.28
Cousins Properties - CUZ - close: 22.98 change: +0.24 stop: 24.65*new*
We are growing more cautious on the REITs as bearish plays. The trend in CUZ is still bearish but investors might lose their fear of anything real estate related with the steps being taken to stop the sub-prime bleeding. Please note that we are adjusting the stop loss to $24.65. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. The latest data puts short interest at over 10% of the 36.8 million-share float, which raises the risk of a short squeeze, especially with the stock near support.
Picked on November 19 at $23.65
Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 34.19 change: +2.04 stop: 35.05
Shares of MNST rallied sharply (+6.3%) apparently on the better than expected ADP job growth numbers. The late afternoon breakout over the $34.00 level is bad news for the bears. We are not suggesting new positions and more cautious traders may want to exit early. We have two targets. Our first target is the $30.15-30.00 range. Our second target is the $28.50-27.50 zone. The bearish P&F chart points to a $26 target.
Picked on November 26 at $32.35 *triggered
Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 26.96 change: +0.09 stop: 28.05
MRX under performed the market today but the stock continues to look like it wants to rebound higher. We are growing increasingly cautious on this stock as a bearish candidate and more conservative traders will want to seriously consider an early exit now to cut their losses. We are not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $23.00-22.50 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: Any time we play a biotech stock we're dealing with a high-risk situation. MRX seems to be more of a drug company but we're still at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. Furthermore the most recent data puts short interest at more than 23% of MRX's 49.2 million-share float. That is a high-degree of short interest and raises the risk for a short squeeze.
Picked on November 18 at $26.08
Patterson-UTI Energy - PTEN - cls: 19.37 chg: +0.31 stop: 20.05
PTEN out performed its peers in the oil services sector. The stock broke through the $19.00 level and did so on above average volume. Readers can watch for a failed rally near $19.50 or $20.00 but we would hesitate to open new bearish positions at this time. Our target is the $17.50-17.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 10% of the stock's 152 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on November 26 at $18.95 *triggered
Trimble Navigation - TRMB - cls: 37.57 chg: +0.77 stop: 38.26
Strength in technology stocks helped TRMBL produce a 2% gain but volume came in very low, which doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. TRMB is still under resistance near $38.00 and its 100-dma but we hesitate to open new bearish positions at this time. If the market shows any follow through on today's widespread rally we would expect TRMB to hit our stop loss at $38.26. More conservative traders might want to inch their stop loss down toward $38.00. Our target is the 200-dma and we're suggesting an exit in the $33.50-33.00 zone for now. The P&F chart is bearish with a $30.00 target. FYI: Short interest looks pretty low, which is surprising and may be out of date.
Picked on November 19 at $37.25
Closed Long Plays
Fresh Del Monte - FDP - close: 32.69 chg: +0.59 stop: 28.39
It looks like we missed the move in FDP. The stock has continued to rally and has already hit our initial target. We were never triggered with our plan to buy a dip. We would keep FDP on your watch list for a pull back toward support down the road.
Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Closed Short Plays