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Long Play Updates

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 40.20 change: +2.55 stop: 35.95

ACI is definitely not cooperating with our plan to buy a dip in the stock. Shares rocketed higher adding 6.7% and doing so on big volume. This is the sort of bullish move we wanted to capture. At this time we are re-evaluating our entry points and would look for a dip back toward $38.50 two or three days from now. We're not suggesting positions at current levels.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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Canadian Natl.Railway - CNI - cls: 50.41 chg: +1.96 stop: 46.90*new*

It was a big day for CNI. The stock rallied 4% and broke through potential resistance at the $50.00 mark. We are adjusting our stop loss to $46.90. Our target is the $51.85-52.00 range.

Picked on December 03 at $48.00 *triggered
Change since picked: + 2.41
Earnings Date 01/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Coca-Cola - KO - close: 63.07 change: +0.02 stop: 59.59

KO was under performing most of the session and finally started to join the rally in just the last hour or two. The close over $63.00 is positive but there are definitely stocks that will move faster than KO. Our end of year target is the $66.00-67.00 range. The bullish P&F chart suggests a $69 target.

Picked on November 15 at $61.95
Change since picked: + 1.12
Earnings Date 01/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.3 million

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PC Mall - MALL - close: 11.02 change: -0.11 stop: 9.49

Uh-oh! The relative weakness in MALL today was unexpected. The stock lost almost 1% instead of participating in the market-wide rally. The overall pattern still looks like it's poised to rebound but we're not suggesting new positions. We have two targets. Our first target is the $12.25-12.50 zone near its 200-dma. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.75-14.00 region. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish following the sharp sell-off. We would consider this an aggressive play given the stock's volatility and our wide stop loss.

Picked on December 04 at $10.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.77
Earnings Date 02/04/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 356 thousand

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NASDAQ Stock Market - NDAQ - cls: 44.19 chg: +0.30 stop: 42.45

NDAQ was looking pretty bullish this morning with a breakout over resistance at $44.00. Unfortunately, the rally failed under $45.00 and shares meandered sideways the rest of the session. Our trigger to buy the stock was at $44.15 so the play is open. Our target is the $48.00-50.00 range. Our time frame is about eight weeks.

Picked on December 06 at $44.15 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Children's Place - PLCE - cls: 30.41 chg: +1.02 stop: 24.90

There is no change from our previous comments on PLCE. The stock continues to climb and shares just closed over round-number resistance at $30.00. We wanted to buy a dip near $26.50 and exit near $30.00. PLCE has already reached our target. At this point we're going to re-evaluate where we would enter the stock. Right now we would be looking in the $28.00-27.50 zone but we'll tweak it tomorrow or just drop it and pick something else.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million
 

Short Play Updates

Amgen - AMGN - close: 55.15 change: +0.26 stop: 56.26

AMGN under performed both the market and its peers today. However, we are growing more and more cautious on bearish plays in general. At this time we would expect AMGN to bounce back toward resistance near $56.00. More conservative traders might just want to abandon ship now. We're not suggesting new positions. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $39 target. Any time you play a biotech company there is a higher level of risk. You never know when there will be a positive or negative press release about some drug, some clinical trial or some news from the FDA or a rival that could send shares of a biotech stock gapping either direction.

Picked on November 11 at $54.28
Change since picked: + 0.87
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.4 million

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Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 33.90 change: -0.29 stop: 35.05

The daily chart's MACD indicator for MNST is nearing a new buy signal but the good news is that there was no follow through on yesterday's rally. Resistance at $34.00 held. We're still not suggesting new positions and more cautious traders may want to exit early. We have two targets. Our first target is the $30.15-30.00 range. Our second target is the $28.50-27.50 zone. The bearish P&F chart points to a $26 target.

Picked on November 26 at $32.35 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.55
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 27.30 change: +0.34 stop: 28.05

The long-term trend in MRX is still bearish but today's breakout over $27.00 is bullish. We have been warning readers that MRX could rally toward $28.00. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. More conservative traders will want to seriously consider an early exit now to cut their losses. We are not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $23.00-22.50 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: Any time we play a biotech stock we're dealing with a high-risk situation. MRX seems to be more of a drug company but we're still at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. Furthermore the most recent data puts short interest at more than 23% of MRX's 49.2 million-share float. That is a high-degree of short interest and raises the risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on November 18 at $26.08
Change since picked: + 1.22
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Patterson-UTI Energy - PTEN - cls: 19.87 chg: +0.50 stop: 20.05

Oil-related stocks rallied again and shares of PTEN experienced another day of short covering. The stock is now challenging round-number resistance near $20.00. A failed rally under $20.00 could be used as a new entry point but honestly given this market's bullish reversal we would hesitate to launch new shorts. Our target is the $17.50-17.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 10% of the stock's 152 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on November 26 at $18.95 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.92
Earnings Date 02/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Cousins Properties - CUZ - close: 24.27 change: +1.29 stop: 24.65

It looks like the bears are finally starting to get scared in CUZ and the stock rallied 5.6% albeit on light volume. The long-term trend is bearish but short-term CUZ looks poised to keep bouncing. We're suggesting an early exit now to cut our losses.

Picked on November 19 at $23.65
Change since picked: + 0.62
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 506 thousand

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Trimble Navigation - TRMB - cls: 38.77 chg: +1.20 stop: 38.26

Two days of back to back gains in the market was too much for TRMB bears. The stock sprinted higher and broke through resistance near $38.00 and its 100-dma. Our stop loss was at $38.26.

Picked on November 19 at $37.25
Change since picked: + 1.52
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 970 thousand
 

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