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Long Play Updates

Canadian Natl.Railway - CNI - cls: 50.04 chg: -0.37 stop: 46.90

We have to urge caution on CNI. The stock rallied right to its simple 200-dma and then reversed under this technical resistance. The intraday high was $51.35. This does look like a short-term bearish reversal and we would expect a dip back toward the $49.00 level at a minimum. A pull back to the $48.50-48.00 zone would not be out of the question. We were expecting CNI to bounce just a little bit higher before reversing. More conservative traders may want to exit early now! Our target is the $51.85-52.00 range.

Picked on December 03 at $48.00 *triggered
Change since picked: + 2.04
Earnings Date 01/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Coca-Cola - KO - close: 63.15 change: +0.08 stop: 59.59

Dow-component KO displayed relative strength on Friday with a rally to $63.75, a new multi-year high for the stock. Unfortunately, shares pared most of its gains and closed near broken resistance and what should be support near $63.00. If the market sees any profit taking KO will continue to look like a defensive play and investors may be tempted to use it as a "safe haven". A dip or a bounce near $62.00 could still be used as a new bullish entry point. Our end of year target is the $66.00-67.00 range. The bullish P&F chart suggests a $69 target.

Picked on November 15 at $61.95
Change since picked: + 1.20
Earnings Date 01/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.3 million

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PC Mall - MALL - close: 11.51 change: +0.49 stop: 9.90 *new*

Bulls went back to shopping at shares of MALL on Friday. The stock rallied to an intraday high of $11.99 before closing at $11.51 with a 4.4% gain. At its high on Friday MALL was up almost 9% for the session. Currently MALL is up about 12.29% from our triggered price at $10.25. More conservative traders may want to do a little profit taking of their own right now. We are adjusting our stop loss to $9.90. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We have two targets. Our first target is the $12.25-12.50 zone near its 200-dma. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.75-14.00 region. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish following the sharp sell-off. We would consider this an aggressive play given the stock's volatility. FYI: MALL will present at an investor conference on Wednesday, December 12th.

Picked on December 04 at $10.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.26
Earnings Date 02/04/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 356 thousand

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NASDAQ Stock Market - NDAQ - cls: 45.80 chg: +1.61 stop: 42.45

It was a little bit of a delayed reaction but bulls are finally responding to NDAQ's breakout above resistance on Thursday. The stock rallied more than 3.6% on Friday and is challenging potential resistance near $46.00. NDAQ does have an above average amount of short interest at more than 7% of the float so the rally is probably getting a boost from some short covering. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but a dip or a bounce near $44 would look like a new entry point. Our target is the $48.00-50.00 range. Our time frame is about eight weeks.

Picked on December 06 at $44.15 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.65
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million
 

Short Play Updates

Amgen - AMGN - close: 52.10 change: -3.05 stop: 56.26

Sometimes it pays to be patient. We had been growing more cautious on AMGN, especially with the market's bullish moves. However, everything changed on Friday. Shares of AMGN dove more than 5.5% and did so on strong volume to close under support near $52.50. Powering this move in AMGN are rising concerns about potential changes in FDA regulations and labeling for some of AMGN's anemia drugs. More conservative traders still in the play may want to adjust their stop toward $55. Our target is the $50.15-50.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $39 target. Any time you play a biotech company there is a higher level of risk. You never know when there will be a positive or negative press release about some drug, some clinical trial or some news from the FDA or a rival that could send shares of a biotech stock gapping either direction.

Picked on November 11 at $54.28
Change since picked: - 2.18
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.4 million

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Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 33.61 change: -0.29 stop: 35.05

The larger pattern in MNST is still bearish but we're concerned that the stock may have produced a bullish double bottom pattern with the late November and early December lows. On the bearish side of things MNST has been unable to truly breakout past short-term resistance near $34.00. Right now we would wait for a new decline under $33.00 before considering new bearish positions. We have two targets. Our first target is the $30.15-30.00 range. Our second target is the $28.50-27.50 zone. The bearish P&F chart points to a $26 target.

Picked on November 26 at $32.35 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.26
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 27.63 change: +0.33 stop: 28.05

We do not see any changes from our previous updates. We have been warning readers that MRX looks like it would bounce back toward resistance near $28.00. The larger trend is still very bearish but short-term the technicals have turned bullish with the bounce. Look for a failed rally under $28.00 or a new decline under $27.00 as potential entry points for shorts. Our target is the $23.00-22.50 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: Any time we play a biotech stock we're dealing with a high-risk situation. MRX seems to be more of a drug company but we're still at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. Furthermore the most recent data puts short interest at more than 23% of MRX's 49.2 million-share float. That is a high-degree of short interest and raises the risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on November 18 at $26.08
Change since picked: + 1.55
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 40.16 change: -0.04 stop: 35.95

ACI continues to show relative strength. The stock held on to its gains with a minor four-cent decline on Friday. We had been suggesting that readers buy a dip but the stock has been too strong. We're going to drop ACI from the play list for the time being but will keep an eye on it for future entry points. Right now we'd look for a dip back toward the $38.00 level, which could be short-term support.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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Children's Place - PLCE - cls: 29.95 chg: -0.46 stop: 24.90

PLCE is another stock that has been too strong to cooperate with our plans to buy a dip. Shares do appear to have produced a significant bottom over the last couple of months. We remain bullish on it but we're going to drop it as a candidate for now and just keep an eye on it for a new entry point down the road. Right now we'd watch the 10-dma near $27.80 as short-term support. We had been suggesting an entry in the $26.50-26.00 range.

Picked on November xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million
 

Closed Short Plays

Patterson-UTI Energy - PTEN - cls: 20.04 chg: +0.17 stop: 20.05

The oversold bounce and short covering rally in PTEN carried over into Friday. The stock posted its fifth gain in a row, which is a very uncommon event. Unfortunately, PTEN hit an intraday high of $20.09 and closed the play at our stop of $20.05.

Picked on November 26 at $18.95 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.09
Earnings Date 02/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million
 

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