Long Play Updates
Salesforece.com - CRM - close: 58.73 change: -0.82 stop: 55.95
CRM seemed to weather today's storm pretty well. The stock spent most of the session trading sideways in a 70-cent range. The up trend is still intact. We remain bullish on CRM above $58.00 but would hesitate to open new positions based on market conditions. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $74 target. Our target is the $64.00-65.00 range.
Picked on December 11 at $59.25 *triggered
Coca-Cola - KO - close: 62.47 change: -1.34 stop: 61.45
Another triple-digit decline for the DJIA is finally starting to wear on shares of KO. The stock gave back just over 2% today after climbing to new multi-year highs last week. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our end of year target is the $66.00-67.00 range. The bullish P&F chart suggests a $69 target.
Picked on November 15 at $61.95
PC Mall - MALL - close: 10.29 change: -0.21 stop: 9.90
We suffered a close call on MALL today. The stock briefly dipped under support at $10.00 but the stock bounced at $9.95. There is a real tug-of-war going on at the $10 level. Given the market's bearish tone we would hesitate to buy the bounce. MALL has already hit our initial target at $12.25. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.75-14.00 region. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish following the sharp sell-off. We would consider this an aggressive play given the stock's volatility.
Picked on December 04 at $10.25 *triggered
Short Play Updates
Bob Evans Farms - BOBE - cls: 28.52 chg: -0.49 stop: 31.75
BOBE continues to sink and the stock produced an intraday failed rally near its 50-dma, which is another bearish entry point for shorts. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. The P&F chart is bearish and points to a $23 target. BOBE does have potential support near $27.00 but we're aiming for the $25.25-25.00 zone. More conservative traders may want to wait for a decline under $28.50 before initiating positions. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 11.6% of the 32.74 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on December 16 at $29.01
Mack-Cali Realty - CLI - cls: 31.99 chg: -0.75 stop: 35.15
The sell-off in CLI continues. The stock gave back 2.29% and hit another 52-week low for the year. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. Broken support near $34.00 should now be overhead resistance. Our target is the $30.25-30.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $27 target.
Picked on December 16 at $32.74
C.H.Robinson - CHRW - cls: 51.50 chg: -0.02 stop: 54.55
I'm a little surprised by the relative strength in CHRW today. The stock bounced from its 200-dma but the rally failed to make it past $52.65. This looks like another entry point for bearish positions, however more conservative traders may want to wait for a drop under $51 before starting new plays. Our target is the $46.00 level. More conservative traders may want to get out near $47.50 while aggressive traders could aim for real support near $45.00. The P&F chart points to a $34 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 5.2% of the stock's 166.8 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount and raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on December 16 at $51.52
DELL Inc. - DELL - close: 23.65 change: +0.08 stop: 25.05
DELL produced a minor oversold bounce today but the bulls didn't have enough fuel to get past short-term resistance near $24.00. We remain bearish! Our target is the $22.10-22.00 zone above the March lows. The P&F chart is very bearish with a $17.00 target.
Picked on December 11 at $24.36
Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 37.67 change: -1.06 stop: 42.15
GVA is off to a good start with a 2.7% decline. The MACD on the daily chart is very close to a new sell signal. Our only complaint would be the very low volume on the recent moves. Low volume doesn't offer much confirmation of the decline. Our target is the $34-33 range near its lows for the year. FYI: The most recent date puts short interest at 7.8% of the 34.4 million-share float.
Picked on December 16 at $38.73
IAC Interactive - IACI - cls: 26.64 chg: -0.23 stop: 28.81
IACI continues to look weak but the bulls are trying to defend it near support at the neckline of its bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. At this point readers can wait for a new failed rally under $28.00 or a new decline under $26.00 as a new entry point for shorts. We have two targets. Our first target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The H&S pattern, if it follows through, is forecasting a target in the $22 region. Our second, more aggressive target will be the $22.50 level. The P&F chart is still bullish for now but is on the verge of a breakdown. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at about 4% of the 120 million-share float.
Picked on December 11 at $27.60
Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 25.54 change: -0.24 stop: 28.05
MRX continues to drift lower and is now testing significant support near its November lows. We would not be surprised to see an oversold bounce here but a failed rally near $26.50 could be used as a new entry point for shorts (or a new relative low under $25.35). Our target is the $23.00-22.50 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: Any time we play a biotech stock we're dealing with a high-risk situation. MRX seems to be more of a drug company but we're still at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. Furthermore the most recent data puts short interest at more than 23% of MRX's 49.2 million-share float. That is a high-degree of short interest and raises the risk for a short squeeze.
Picked on November 18 at $26.08
Paychex - PAYX - close: 37.77 change: -0.59 stop: 40.76
Shares of PAYX lost another 1.5% and the stock is nearing our target in the $37.25-37.00 range. We're running low on time. PAYX is due to report earnings on Wednesday, December 20th after the closing bell. We do not want to hold over the report. Given this time issue we're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $37.25-37.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim for the $36 level and its April lows.
Picked on December 11 at $39.62
Tempur-Pedic Intl. - TPX - cls: 27.41 chg: -0.25 stop: 30.67
Target achieved! TPX hit an intraday low of $27.25. Our first target was the $27.25-27.00 range. There was an initial bounce but it failed relatively quickly this morning. Our second target is the $25.25-25.00 range. FYI: It's important to note that the most recent data puts short interest at almost 19% of the 68-million share float. That is a high degree of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on December 12 at $30.67
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