Long Play Updates
Salesforece.com - CRM - close: 58.50 change: -0.23 stop: 55.95
Aside from some early morning volatility shares of CRM continue to trade sideways. The intraday bounce from its rising 10-dma is a good sign but the stock isn't making much progress with round-number resistance at $60.00. We remain bullish on CRM above $58.00 but would hesitate to open new positions based on market conditions. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $74 target. Our target is the $64.00-65.00 range.
Picked on December 11 at $59.25 *triggered
Coca-Cola - KO - close: 62.28 change: -0.18 stop: 61.45
A bounce back above $62.40-62.50 could be used as a new bullish entry point but if you're launching new positions now you may want to use a stop loss just under today's low (61.88). We've been targeting the $66-67 range with a year-end time frame. With only two weeks left in the year that probably won't happen. KO might be able to do it by the middle of January. The bullish P&F chart suggests a $69 target.
Picked on November 15 at $61.95
PC Mall - MALL - close: 10.92 change: +0.67 stop: 9.90
Good news! MALL is displaying some impressive relative strength. Shares spent most of the day trading sideways in the $10.10-10.25 zone and then this afternoon they broke out higher. The stock closed with a 6.5% gain. This looks like a new (aggressive) entry point for bulls. MALL has already hit our initial target at $12.25. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.75-14.00 region. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish following the sharp sell-off. We would consider this an aggressive play given the stock's volatility.
Picked on December 04 at $10.25 *triggered
Short Play Updates
Bob Evans Farms - BOBE - cls: 28.45 chg: -0.06 stop: 31.75
We have to urge caution on BOBE. The stock traded to $27.57 this morning and then bounced back sharply. The move on the daily chart looks like a possible one-day reversal pattern. At this point we would wait and watch for a new failed rally in the $29.50-30.00 zone as a new entry point for shorts. We're aiming for the $25.25-25.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 11.6% of the 32.74 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on December 16 at $29.01
Mack-Cali Realty - CLI - cls: 31.38 chg: -0.61 stop: 35.15
Warning! We have to urge caution on CLI too. The stock continued to show weakness and shares hit $30.41 intraday. All we needed was another 16 cents and CLI would have hit our target in the $30.25-30.00 zone. We're suggesting readers be careful because the sharp bounce back and the big volume suggests a possible one-day reversal pattern. We would expect a bounce tomorrow. Broken support near $34.00 should now be overhead resistance. Our target is the $30.25-30.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $27 target.
Picked on December 16 at $32.74
C.H.Robinson - CHRW - cls: 51.94 chg: +0.44 stop: 54.55
Lack of follow through on last week's bearish reversal in CHRW raises the risk for bears. Shares of CHRW have been trading sideways the last few sessions with support near its 200-dma and resistance near its 10-dma. More conservative traders may want to wait for a drop under $51 before starting new plays. Our target is the $46.00 level. More conservative traders may want to get out near $47.50 while aggressive traders could aim for real support near $45.00. The P&F chart points to a $34 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 5.2% of the stock's 166.8 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount and raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on December 16 at $51.52
DELL Inc. - DELL - close: 24.02 change: +0.37 stop: 25.05
We don't see any major changes from our previous comments on DELL. The stock produced an oversold bounce today. The close over short-term resistance at $24.00 is bullish but the trend is still very bearish. Our target is the $22.10-22.00 zone above the March lows. The P&F chart is very bearish with a $17.00 target.
Picked on December 11 at $24.36
Emergency Med.Svs. - EMS - cls: 29.96 change: +0.66 stop: 32.05
EMS got a boost today after one analyst firm started coverage on it with a "buy" rating. We remain bearish following yesterday's technical breakdown. Look for a failed rally under $31.00 or a new decline under $29.75 as a new entry point for shorts. There is potential support near $27 and then again near $25, which is more easily seen on the P&F chart. We are listing two targets. Our first target is $27.25. Our second target is $25.25. FYI: The stock does have a relatively high amount of short interest and a very small 8.57 million-share float, which raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on December 17 at $29.30
Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 37.51 change: -0.03 stop: 42.15
GVA looks like it wants to bounce tomorrow. We would watch for a failed rally in the $39.00-40.00 zone as a new bearish entry point for shorts. Our target is the $34-33 range near its lows for the year. FYI: The most recent date puts short interest at 7.8% of the 34.4 million-share float.
Picked on December 16 at $38.73
IAC Interactive - IACI - cls: 26.76 chg: +0.12 stop: 28.81
IACI is trying to rebound near support at the neckline to its bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. A bounce back toward $28 would not be out of line here. Wait for another failed rally or a new drop under $26.00 as an entry point (although if you're shorting it under $26 we suggest aiming for our second target). We have two targets. Our first target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The H&S pattern, if it follows through, is forecasting a target in the $22 region. Our second, more aggressive target will be the $22.50 level. The P&F chart is still bullish for now but is on the verge of a breakdown. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at about 4% of the 120 million-share float.
Picked on December 11 at $27.60
Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 25.72 change: +0.18 stop: 28.05
MRX is also trying to find support near its November lows. We would not be surprised to see an oversold bounce here and a failed rally near $26.50 could be used as a new entry point for shorts (or a new relative low under $25.35). Our target is the $23.00-22.50 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: Any time we play a biotech stock we're dealing with a high-risk situation. MRX seems to be more of a drug company but we're still at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. Furthermore the most recent data puts short interest at more than 23% of MRX's 49.2 million-share float. That is a high-degree of short interest and raises the risk for a short squeeze.
Picked on November 18 at $26.08
Paychex - PAYX - close: 38.14 change: +0.37 stop: 40.01 *new*
Tomorrow is our last day for PAYX. The company is due to report earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday. We do not want to hold over the report so we'll plan to exit at the closing bell. Wall Street expects PAYX to report a profit of 39 cents a share. We're not suggesting new positions. Please note our new stop at $40.01. Our target is the $37.25-37.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim for the $36 level and its April lows.
Picked on December 11 at $39.62
Tempur-Pedic Intl. - TPX - cls: 27.32 chg: -0.09 stop: 30.67
Bullish reversal alert! Be careful with TPX. Yesterday the stock hit our first target at $27.25. Today the shares dipped to $26.11 before bouncing back. The move looks like a one-day bullish reversal pattern and we would expect more of a bounce tomorrow. We're not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to exit completely right here. Our second target is the $25.25-25.00 range. FYI: It's important to note that the most recent data puts short interest at almost 19% of the 68-million share float. That is a high degree of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on December 12 at $30.67
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays