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Long Play Updates

Advent Software - ADVS - close: 54.03 change: +1.00 stop: 49.99

As expected ADVS did breakout from its trading range. Unfortunately, the stock gapped open higher. Shares opened at $53.83 on Friday. We were suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $53.75 so we're forced to take Friday's open as our entry point. The move on Friday is bullish and volume came in above average on the move. Readers can choose to open positions now or look for a dip back toward $53.50, which as broken resistance should be new support. Our target is the $57.50 level. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $60 region. Short-term technical oscillators are starting to show bullish buy signals from oversold conditions. More conservative traders will want to use a tighter stop loss.

Picked on December 21 at $53.83 *gap open entry
Change since picked: + 0.24
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 245 thousand

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Evergreen Solar - ESLR - cls: 15.66 chg: +0.03 stop: 14.85

The normally volatile shares of ESLR suddenly turned docile this week. Shares traded sideways for the last four days in a row. Maybe now after having digested its previous gains it's ready for another leg higher. ESLR continues to have a bullish trend of higher lows. Bulls have been buying dips near ESLR's rising 10-dma so we're suggesting a stop just under the 10-dma. The stock appears to have significant resistance in the $17.50-18.00 range. We're suggesting long positions now and we'll target a move to $17.45. The P&F chart is much more bullish with a $36 target. FYI: Due to the big intraday swings we're labeling this an aggressive, high-risk play.

Picked on December 18 at $15.70
Change since picked: - 0.04
Earnings Date 02/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.7 million

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Coca-Cola - KO - close: 63.12 change: +0.79 stop: 61.45

KO enjoyed a nice bounce on Friday. As expected the $62 region held up as support. As a big cap stock near its highs for the year KO might benefit from some window dressing this coming week. It's a slow mover but this can be used as a new entry point for longs. More conservative traders could inch up their stops toward $61.85. Our target is the $66.00-67.00 range. The bullish P&F chart suggests a $69 target.

Picked on November 15 at $61.95
Change since picked: + 1.17
Earnings Date 01/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.3 million

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PC Mall - MALL - close: 10.65 change: +0.12 stop: 9.90

We don't see any real changes from our previous comments on MALL. The stock has significant support near $10.00 and then again near $9.65. Investors continue to buy dips near $10 but each rally attempt is running out of steam. We hesitate to suggest new bullish plays at this time. MALL has already hit our initial target at $12.25. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.75-14.00 region. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish following the sharp sell-off. We would consider this an aggressive play given the stock's volatility.

Picked on December 04 at $10.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.43
Earnings Date 02/04/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 356 thousand

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Sonoco Products - SON - cls: 33.93 chg: +0.57 stop: 31.75

SON continues to bounce. This is a new play from our Thursday night newsletter. We do not see any changes from our original comments so we're posting them here:

Positive earnings guidance in earl December popped SON out of its multi-month flat to down consolidation pattern. The stock has digested its gains and is starting to creep higher again. We are suggesting long positions with SON above $32.50. We'll put our stop just under the December 17th low. There is potential resistance at the exponential 200-dma near $34.50 and then again near $35.00. We're setting our first target at $34.85-35.00. Our second, more aggressive target is the 200-dma (currently near $36.75).

Picked on December 20 at $33.36
Change since picked: + 0.57
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 587 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Bob Evans Farms - BOBE - cls: 26.92 chg: +0.23 stop: 30.11

Last week was pretty ugly for BOBE. Shares fell out of its sideways consolidation and broke under multiple levels of support. The stock is now somewhat oversold and due for a bounce. We would watch for a failed rally near $28.00 or $28.50 as a potential entry point for new shorts. We're aiming for the $25.25-25.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 11.6% of the 32.74 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on December 16 at $29.01
Change since picked: - 2.09
Earnings Date 02/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 467 thousand

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Mack-Cali Realty - CLI - cls: 33.85 chg: +0.69 stop: 34.26

We have been warning readers for the past three days that CLI was poised to bounce higher. The market's short squeeze on Friday lifted CLI to a 2% gain. The stock rallied right to resistance near $34.00 twice. Monday will be the real test to see if this $34.00 resistance holds. A failed rally here can be used as a new entry point for shorts. We are adjusting our stop loss to $34.26. More conservative traders may want to use a stop loss closer to $34.00. If you look at the weekly chart it appears that CLI is bouncing from potential support. That is a concern and readers may want to turn more defensive. Our target is the $30.25-30.00 range. CLI almost hit our target with the December 18th low at $30.42. The P&F chart is bearish with a $27 target.

Picked on December 16 at $32.74
Change since picked: + 1.11
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 751 thousand

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Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 37.95 change: +0.67 stop: 41.05 *new*

After breaking down from its two-week trading range on December 14th shares of GVA had reached short-term oversold levels. We warned readers that the stock was due for a bounce. Look for a failed rally somewhere in the $38.00-40.00 zone as a new entry point for shorts. Broken support near $40.00 should be new resistance. More conservative traders may want to place their stop closer to $40.00. Our target is the $34-33 range near its lows for the year. FYI: The most recent date puts short interest at 7.8% of the 34.4 million-share float.

Picked on December 16 at $38.73
Change since picked: - 0.78
Earnings Date 02/11/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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IAC Interactive - IACI - cls: 27.49 chg: +0.31 stop: 28.81

IACI is still meandering sideways. We cautioned readers to expect another bounce near support around $26.50 and that's what IACI delivered. Shares have produced a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern over the last three months and a breakdown from the neckline (in the $26.50-26.00 zone) can be used as a new bearish entry point. Plus, a failed rally under $28.00 could be used as an entry point for shorts. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops closer to the $28.00 level. We have two targets. Our first target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The H&S pattern, if it follows through, is forecasting a target in the $22 region. Our second, more aggressive target will be the $22.50 level. The P&F chart is still bullish for now but is on the verge of a breakdown. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at about 4% of the 120 million-share float.

Picked on December 11 at $27.60
Change since picked: - 0.11
Earnings Date 02/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 26.43 change: +0.38 stop: 28.05

MRX is another stock with a long-term bearish trend that is trying to bounce from support. We cautioned readers that MRX might bounce near its November lows and that's what we're seeing. The stock has a bearish trend of lower highs so we should be watching for a failed rally soon as a new entry point. MRX has technical resistance at its 50-dma near $27.00. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops closer to $27. Our target is the $23.00-22.50 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: Any time we play a biotech stock we're dealing with a high-risk situation. MRX seems to be more of a drug company but we're still at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. Furthermore the most recent data puts short interest at more than 23% of MRX's 49.2 million-share float. That is a high-degree of short interest and raises the risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on November 18 at $26.08
Change since picked: + 0.35
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Tempur-Pedic Intl. - TPX - cls: 27.94 chg: +0.99 stop: 30.15 *new*

TPX is seeing a bit of an oversold bounce. The stock has already exceeded our first target in the $27.25-27.00 range. Given Friday's market rally a little short covering in TPX is not a surprise. TPX should have short-term resistance at $28.00, 29.00 and $30.00. Plus it should have additional technical resistance at the 200-dma near $29.40. We are adjusting our stop loss to $30.15. Wait for a failed rally under $30.00 as a potential entry point for new shorts. Our second target is the $25.25-25.00 range. FYI: It's important to note that the most recent data puts short interest at almost 19% of the 68-million share float. That is a high degree of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on December 12 at $30.67
Change since picked: - 2.73
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

DELL Inc. - DELL - close: 24.88 change: -0.01 stop: 25.05

Strength or in this case short covering in technology stocks on Friday was too much for the bears and DELL hit our stop loss at $25.05. Unfortunately, it may have occurred at the wrong time for us. DELL failed to hold any of its gains and was trading lower into the closing bell. This sort of relative weakness isn't very convincing if you're a bull. We would keep an eye on DELL as the stock may offer another entry point for shorts down the road.

Picked on December 11 at $24.36
Change since picked: + 0.52
Earnings Date 11/29/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 27.4 million
 

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