Option Investor
Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version

Long Play Updates

Advent Software - ADVS - close: 53.21 change: -2.40 stop: 49.99

Ouch! ADVS just erased our unrealized gains with a 4.3% drop today. Volume was still very light and we didn't see any specific news to account for the under performance. The breakdown under $54.00 and the $53.60-53.50 levels are very negative. More conservative traders will want to STRONGLY consider raising your stop loss, maybe near $52.00, which is just under the 50-dma. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $57.50 level. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $60 region. The late day bounce from the $55 region is a good sign. More conservative traders will want to use a tighter stop loss.

Picked on December 21 at $53.83 *gap open entry
Change since picked: - 0.62
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 245 thousand

---

Fiserv - FISV - close: 54.93 change: -0.78 stop: 53.99

There is no change from our previous comments on FISV. We're waiting for a breakout over resistance near $56.00. Our suggested entry point to buy the stock is at $56.11. If triggered our short-term target is the $59.75-60.00 range. FYI: If FISV can trade over $56 it would produce a new triple-top breakout buy signal on the P&F chart.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

---

Ingles Markets - IMKTA - close: 25.39 chg: -1.24 stop: 23.95

The market-wide sell-off also sparked some heavy profit taking in IMKTA. Shares lost 4.6% and dipped back toward short-term support at its 10-dma. A bounce from here or near $25.00 can be used as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $27.75-28.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim higher. FYI: Normally we do not play stocks with an average daily volume of less than 250,000 shares so we're tempted to label this play as aggressive.

Picked on December 23 at $25.66
Change since picked: - 0.27
Earnings Date 12/03/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 81 thousand

---

Coca-Cola - KO - close: 62.30 change: -0.71 stop: 61.75

KO is not looking very strong here. The stock just produced a new short-term sell signal on its intraday charts. More conservative traders may want to abandon ship now. We would still expect a bounce near $62.00. Now whether or not that bounce will last is another story. Our target is the $66.00-67.00 range. The bullish P&F chart suggests a $69 target.

Picked on November 15 at $61.95
Change since picked: + 0.35
Earnings Date 01/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.3 million

---

Sonoco Products - SON - cls: 32.97 chg: -0.47 stop: 31.75

SON lost about 1.4% today. The lack of follow through on last week's bounce has produced some mixed technical signals. At this time we would wait for a bounce back above $33.50 before considering new bullish positions. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $32.50. There is potential resistance at the exponential 200-dma near $34.50 and then again near $35.00. We're setting our first target at $34.85-35.00. Our second, more aggressive target is the 200-dma (currently near $36.75).

Picked on December 20 at $33.36
Change since picked: - 0.39
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 587 thousand

---

XTO Energy - XTO - close: 52.35 chg: -0.27 stop: 51.79

Strength in crude oil today did not help out shares of XTO. The stock continues to drift lower following yesterday's failed rally under $54.00. We have been suggesting that readers wait for a breakout over $54.00. Our suggested entry point for bullish positions is at $54.15. If XTO can breakout over $54.00 it would produce a new buy signal on the Point & Figure chart. Speaking of the P&F chart XTO has a habit of producing a sell signal and then reversing higher. The P&F chart currently sports a sell signal and it looks poised to reverse higher again. If triggered our target is the $59.00-60.00 range.

Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million
 

Short Play Updates

Bob Evans Farms - BOBE - cls: 26.37 chg: -0.76 stop: 30.11

BOBE turned in a bearish session with another failed rally under $27.60 and its 10-dma. Shares look poised to move lower and readers might be tempted to lower their stop loss. We're aiming for the $25.25-25.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 11.6% of the 32.74 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on December 16 at $29.01
Change since picked: - 2.64
Earnings Date 02/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 467 thousand

---

Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 36.43 change: -1.12 stop: 40.26

Shares of GVA lost about 3% and dipped back toward recent support around $36.00. Almost all of the technical indicators and the trend on the charts are bearish. The stock looks ready to hit new lows for the month soon. Our target is the $34-33 range near its lows for the year. FYI: The most recent date puts short interest at 7.8% of the 34.4 million-share float.

Picked on December 16 at $38.73
Change since picked: - 2.30
Earnings Date 02/11/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

---

IAC Interactive - IACI - cls: 27.09 chg: -0.47 stop: 28.81

IACI lost 1.7% with most of the declines occurring early this morning. The stock appeared to find some support near $27.00 and it held there the rest of the session. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops closer to the $28.00 level. Conservative traders may also want to wait for a breakdown under support near $26 and target the $22.50 zone. We have two targets. Our first target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The H&S pattern, if it follows through, is forecasting a target in the $22 region. Our second, more aggressive target will be the $22.50 level. The P&F chart is still bullish for now but is on the verge of a breakdown. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at about 4% of the 120 million-share float.

Picked on December 11 at $27.60
Change since picked: - 0.51
Earnings Date 02/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

---

Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 26.19 change: -0.19 stop: 28.05

MRX turned in a bearish session with a failed rally pattern under $27.00. We don't know what caused the early spike higher but investors sold it. This move could be used as a new bearish entry point. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops closer to $27. Our target is the $23.00-22.50 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: Any time we play a biotech stock we're dealing with a high-risk situation. MRX seems to be more of a drug company but we're still at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. Furthermore the most recent data puts short interest at more than 23% of MRX's 49.2 million-share float. That is a high-degree of short interest and raises the risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on November 18 at $26.08
Change since picked: + 0.11
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

---

Tempur-Pedic Intl. - TPX - cls: 26.72 chg: -1.25 stop: 30.15

TPX continues to look very weak. The stock lost more than 4.4% and closed near its lows for the day. TPX has already exceeded our first target in the $27.25-27.00 range. Our second target is the $25.25-25.00 range. If you missed taking profits earlier this month now would be a good time to do so. FYI: It's important to note that the most recent data puts short interest at almost 19% of the 68-million share float. That is a high degree of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on December 12 at $30.67
Change since picked: - 3.95
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

Premier Investor Play Update Archives