Long Play Updates
Advent Software - ADVS - close: 54.30 change: +1.09 stop: 49.99
We still never found any news that might explain Thursday's sharp drop. Fortunately, ADVS recovered on Friday with a 2% gain. Traders bought the dip near its 10-dma. This could be used as a new bullish entry point however readers may want to use a tighter stop loss. Our target is the $57.50 level. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $60 region. The late day bounce from the $55 region is a good sign. More conservative traders will want to use a tighter stop loss.
Picked on December 21 at $53.83 *gap open entry
Fiserv - FISV - close: 56.03 change: +1.10 stop: 53.99
FISV rallied to a new five-month high on Friday. Shares broke through resistance at the $56.00 level and hit our suggested trigger to buy the stock at $56.11. The play is now open. Our target is the $59.75-60.00 range. As expected the move over $56.00 has produced a new Point & Figure chart triple top breakout buy signal. The P&F chart now points to a $69 target.
Picked on December 28 at $56.11 *triggered
Ingles Markets - IMKTA - close: 25.63 chg: +0.21 stop: 23.95
IMKTA experienced some volatility on Friday morning with an intraday spike to $27.29. Shares briefly traded above technical resistance at the 100-dma before paring its gains. The overall trend with the breakout from its bearish channel is still bullish but IMKTA might drift back toward the $25.00 region and its 50-dma before moving higher again. Be patient if you're looking for a new entry point. Today's move does look like a failed rally. Our target is the $27.75-28.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim higher. FYI: Normally we do not play stocks with an average daily volume of less than 250,000 shares so we're tempted to label this play as aggressive.
Picked on December 23 at $25.66
Coca-Cola - KO - close: 62.30 change: -0.71 stop: 61.75
This is an important test for KO. We've been cautioning readers that KO looked like it was headed back toward support near $62.00. Now here it is testing $62 and soon its rising 50-dma. Normally a bounce from here would look like a bullish entry point. However, we mentioned on Thursday that KO has produced some short-term sell signals. It's also nearing some more intermediate-term sell signals. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to exit early now to avoid potential losses. Our target is the $66.00-67.00 range. The bullish P&F chart suggests a $69 target.
Picked on November 15 at $61.95
Sonoco Products - SON - cls: 32.99 chg: +0.02 stop: 31.75
We do not have any changes to add to our previous comments on SON. The stock is still producing a lot of mixed signals. The trend this past week has been bearish and next week it would not surprise us to see a dip back toward $32.00 and the mid December low. Considering our market outlook for next week more conservative traders may want to just exit early now to limit any losses. You could always jump back in on a bounce near $32.00. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. There is potential resistance at the exponential 200-dma near $34.50 and then again near $35.00. We're setting our first target at $34.85-35.00. Our second, more aggressive target is the 200-dma (currently near $36.75).
Picked on December 20 at $33.36
XTO Energy - XTO - close: 52.74 chg: +0.39 stop: 51.79
More aggressive traders might want to buy this past week's dip in XTO. We are suggesting that readers wait for a breakout over resistance at $54.00. Our suggested entry point for bullish positions is at $54.15. If XTO can breakout over $54.00 it would produce a new buy signal on the Point & Figure chart. Speaking of the P&F chart XTO has a habit of producing a sell signal and then reversing higher. The P&F chart currently sports a sell signal and it looks poised to reverse higher again. If triggered our target is the $59.00-60.00 range.
Picked on December xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Short Play Updates
Bob Evans Farms - BOBE - cls: 26.87 chg: +0.50 stop: 30.11
BOBE's lack of follow through on Thursday's failed rally is disappointing but the trend is still bearish. Look for another failed rally near the 10-dma as a potential entry point for shorts. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward $29.00 or near the 50-dma around $28.60. We're aiming for the $25.25-25.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 11.6% of the 32.74 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on December 16 at $29.01
Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 36.18 change: -0.25 stop: 40.26
Selling pressure in GVA is pushing the stock closer to a breakdown under short-term support near $36.00. More conservative traders might want to take a little money off the table right now with GVA off more than 6.5% from our picked price. However, odds look good that GVA will breakdown next week. Our target is the $34-33 range near its lows for the year. FYI: The most recent date puts short interest at 7.8% of the 34.4 million-share float.
Picked on December 16 at $38.73
IAC Interactive - IACI - cls: 26.99 chg: -0.10 stop: 28.81
Honestly we don't see any changes from our previous comments. IACI still looks bearish with a trend of lower highs and a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. The challenge is breaking through support near $26.50-26.40. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops closer to the $28.00 level. Conservative traders may also want to wait for a breakdown under support near $26 and target the $22.50 zone. We have two targets. Our first target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The H&S pattern, if it follows through, is forecasting a target in the $22 region. Our second, more aggressive target will be the $22.50 level. The P&F chart is still bullish for now but is on the verge of a breakdown. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at about 4% of the 120 million-share float.
Picked on December 11 at $27.60
Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 26.31 change: +0.15 stop: 27.35*new*
We don't see any changes from our prior comments on MRX. Shares have a bearish trend of lower highs but bears are fighting against support near $25.50. Thursday's failed rally looked like a new entry point for shorts. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops closer to $27. We are adjusting our stop to $27.35. Our target is the $23.00-22.50 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: Any time we play a biotech stock we're dealing with a high-risk situation. MRX seems to be more of a drug company but we're still at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. Furthermore the most recent data puts short interest at more than 23% of MRX's 49.2 million-share float. That is a high-degree of short interest and raises the risk for a short squeeze.
Picked on November 18 at $26.08
Tempur-Pedic Intl. - TPX - cls: 26.68 chg: -0.04 stop: 30.15
TPX is still drifting lower. Overall we don't see any changes from our previous comments. TPX has already exceeded our first target in the $27.25-27.00 range. Our second target is the $25.25-25.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim closer to $24.00. If you missed taking profits earlier this month now would be a good time to do so. FYI: It's important to note that the most recent data puts short interest at almost 19% of the 68-million share float. That is a high degree of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on December 12 at $30.67
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