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Long Play Updates

Advent Software - ADVS - close: 53.73 change: +0.20 stop: 51.90

ADVS is still trying to bounce. If the market can produce a decent day ADVS looks like it's ready to rally. Unfortunately, we are seeing more of a bearish divergence in the daily chart's MACD indicator. Our target is the $57.50 level. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $60 region.

Picked on December 21 at $53.83 *gap open entry
Change since picked: - 0.10
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 245 thousand


Fiserv - FISV - close: 54.90 change: -0.36 stop: 53.99

This remains a dangerous position for FISV. The stock did decline today following yesterday's bearish reversal and the stock broke down under its rising 10-dma this afternoon. Short-term things have turned bearish. More conservative traders will want to tighten their stops. We would expect a dip to the $54.25-54.00 zone. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $59.75-60.00 range. As expected the move over $56.00 has produced a new Point & Figure chart triple top breakout buy signal. The P&F chart now points to a $69 target.

Picked on December 28 at $56.11 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.21
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million


Ingles Markets - IMKTA - close: 24.48 chg: -1.12 stop: 23.95

IMKTA did see profit taking today, as expected. The stock blew right past the $25.00 level and closed on its 50-dma with a 4.38% loss. The bullish bounce from November and December is in trouble. The MACD on the daily chart is nearing a new sell signal. If the stock doesn't bounce soon traders will be looking at a retest of the mid December low. Wait for the dip and signs of a bounce before considering new positions. Our target is the $27.75-28.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim higher. FYI: Normally we do not play stocks with an average daily volume of less than 250,000 shares so we're tempted to label this play as aggressive.

Picked on December 23 at $25.66
Change since picked: - 1.18
Earnings Date 12/03/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 81 thousand


Sonoco Products - SON - cls: 32.17 chg: -0.70 stop: 31.95

Hmm... an exit yesterday doesn't sound so bad today. SON should have some short-term support near $34.00. Unfortunately, today's trading does not suggest there will be any sort of bounce. The stock produced both a failed rally near its 10-dma this morning but it also produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We would say exit here but our stop loss isn't that far away. If we get any sort of bounce tomorrow we'd suggest exiting as close to $33.00 as we can. This play is going to be over tomorrow one way or the other.

Picked on December 20 at $33.36
Change since picked: - 1.19
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 587 thousand


XTO Energy - XTO - close: 54.07 chg: +1.93 stop: 51.79

XTO exploded higher today. The stock surged right from the open and crossed resistance at $54.00 to hit an intraday high of $54.50. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock was at $54.15. The 3.7% gain is impressive and was fueled by stronger than average volume. However, readers should not be surprised if there is any profit taking tomorrow. A dip in the $53.50-53.20 zone could be used as another attractive entry point. If shares don't dip we remain bullish with it above $54.00. Our target is the $59.00-60.00 range.

Picked on January 03 at $54.15 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.08
Earnings Date 02/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million

Short Play Updates

Bob Evans Farms - BOBE - cls: 25.59 chg: -0.84 stop: 27.55 *new*

Bears can cheer now! We are finally seeing some movement out of BOBE. The stock broke down from its two-week trading range and lost 3.1% on above average volume. This move should herald another leg lower. Our target is the $25.25-25.00 zone. More aggressive traders will want to consider aiming for the November low near $24.60. We considered aiming lower but the $24.60 level could be tough support with the November 2007 low and an August 2006 low. We are adjusting our stop loss to $27.55. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 11.6% of the 32.74 million-share float. That is a relatively high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on December 16 at $29.01
Change since picked: - 3.42
Earnings Date 02/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 467 thousand


Fist Community Bancorp - FCBP - cls: 39.20 chg: -1.10 stop: 43.26

Another day, another decline for the financials. FCBP lost 2.7% and hit new two-year lows. Daily chart technicals like the MACD and RSI are showing new sell signals. Our first target is the $35.25-35.00 range. Our second target is the $32.00-30.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $30 target. FYI: We do not want to hold over the late January earnings report.

Picked on December 30 at $40.80
Change since picked: - 1.60
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 416 thousand


Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 35.82 change: -0.34 stop: 40.01

GVA is serving up more of the same. The stock has a very bearish trend but momentum has slowed. Someone is buying the stock in the $36.00-35.75 zone although it looks like selling pressure (supply) is going to break through that level soon. More conservative traders might want to take a little money off the table right now. You may also want to tighten your stop toward $39.00 or $38.50. Our target is the $34-33 range near its lows for the year. FYI: The most recent date puts short interest at 7.8% of the 34.4 million-share float.

Picked on December 16 at $38.73
Change since picked: - 2.91
Earnings Date 02/11/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million


IAC Interactive - IACI - cls: 25.93 chg: -0.35 stop: 28.01

Lack of a bounce following yesterday's decline is a positive sign for the bears. Broken support near $26.50 should now be new resistance. We have two targets. Our first target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The H&S pattern, if it follows through, is forecasting a target in the $22 region. Our second, more aggressive target will be the $22.50 level. The P&F chart is still bullish for now but is on the verge of a breakdown. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at about 4% of the 120 million-share float.

Picked on December 11 at $27.60
Change since picked: - 1.67
Earnings Date 02/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million


Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 25.76 change: -0.16 stop: 27.01

MRX dipped again with another test of support near $25.50. There is where we should expect shares of MRX to bounce. If the pattern continues to hold then we can look for a failed rally in the $26.50 region. Our target is the $23.00-22.50 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: Any time we play a biotech stock we're dealing with a high-risk situation. MRX seems to be more of a drug company but we're still at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. Furthermore the most recent data puts short interest at more than 23% of MRX's 49.2 million-share float. That is a high-degree of short interest and raises the risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on November 18 at $26.08
Change since picked: - 0.32
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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