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Long Play Updates

Cypress Semi - CY - close: 34.64 change: -1.38 stop: 33.99

The nascent bounce in shares of CY was cut short on Friday. The stock retreated back toward support. Friday's close under the 50-dma is bearish but CY should still have support near $34.00. More aggressive traders might want to give CY more room and place their stop loss under the mid December lows near $33.50. We do expect shares to trend lower on Monday but if $34.00 holds then we can buy the rebound. We do want to make a note that the late December-early January sell-off has turned most of the technical indicators bearish. It's important to look for signs of a bounce before considering new positions. Our target is the $39.75-40.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit near the December highs at $38.75. FYI: It doesn't say it in the company description but CY is getting a lot of interest because of its exposure to the solar energy industry.

Picked on January 03 at $36.02
Change since picked: - 1.38
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.6 million

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XTO Energy - XTO - close: 53.19 chg: -0.88 stop: 51.79

Shares of XTO weathered the storm on Friday relatively well. The stock lost 1.6% albeit on above average volume. If the market continues lower on Monday we would expect a dip in XTO toward $52.50 maybe $52.00. A bounce anywhere above $52 can be used as a new entry point. More conservative traders or those who want to see more momentum can wait for another rally past $54.00. Our target is the $59.00-60.00 range.

Picked on January 03 at $54.15 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.96
Earnings Date 02/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million
 

Short Play Updates

Fist Community Bancorp - FCBP - cls: 37.50 chg: -1.70 stop: 41.26*new*

Financial stocks continue to be under performers. Shares of FCBP sank to new three and a half year lows with Friday's 4.3% decline. The stock might see an oversold bounce and an attempt to fill the gap from Friday morning. However, readers can use a failed rally in the $39-40 zone as a new entry point for shorts. We are adjusting our stop loss to $41.26. With a $3.30 decline readers might want to consider doing some profit taking. Our first target is the $35.25-35.00 range. Our second target is the $32.00-30.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $30 target. FYI: We do not want to hold over the late January earnings report.

Picked on December 30 at $40.80
Change since picked: - 3.30
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 416 thousand

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Corning Inc. - GLW - cls: 22.44 change: -0.69 stop: 24.21

Before the bell on Friday GLW received new analyst coverage with a "buy" rating but that did not save the stock from plunging lower. Shares actually gapped open lower at $22.91. One of our suggested entry points to short GLW was at $22.95 so we would have been triggered at the opening trade. Our target is the $21.25-21.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late January earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $15.00 target. There was virtually zero short interest listed for GLW.

Picked on January 04 at $21.91 *triggered/gap down entry
Change since picked: - 0.47
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.7 million

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Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 34.48 change: -1.34 stop: 38.26*new*

GVA lost another 3.7% on Friday. The stock is nearing our target in the $34.00-33.00 range. However, with a $4.25 decline readers will want to consider taking some profits off the table right here. We are adjusting our stop loss to $38.26. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. FYI: The most recent date puts short interest at 7.8% of the 34.4 million-share float.

Picked on December 16 at $38.73
Change since picked: - 4.25
Earnings Date 02/11/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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IAC Interactive - IACI - cls: 25.29 chg: -0.64 stop: 27.26*new*

Target achieved. Continued weakness in IACI pulled shares to $25.19 before bouncing a bit. Our initial target was the $25.50-25.00 range. The stock is nearing its 2007 low at $25.00, which is where readers can expect another oversold bounce. Please note we are adjusting our stop loss to $27.26. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. The H&S pattern, if it follows through, is forecasting a target in the $22 region. Our second, more aggressive target will be the $22.50 level. The P&F chart is still bullish for now but is on the verge of a breakdown. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at about 4% of the 120 million-share float.

Picked on December 11 at $27.60
Change since picked: - 2.31
Earnings Date 02/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 25.91 change: +0.15 stop: 26.81 *new*

Be careful here! MRX bucked the market trend on Friday and produced a gain. Odds are it was short covering as the stock tested support near $25.50. Readers have a big decision to make here. Friday would have been the perfect day to see a breakdown through support but it did not happen. That's one reason to consider an early exit. Next there is a huge healthcare/drug/biotech conference next week. MRX is due to present at it on Tuesday. This conference could produce enough good news to launch a rebound in the sector. That's another reason to consider an early exit. The only reason to stay short is the very long-term, very consistent bearish trend of lower highs. Investors have been consistently selling the rallies. We're going to stick with MRX for another day may be two just to see what happens but you might just want to exit now. We are adjusting our stop loss to $26.81, above the late December high. Our target is the $23.00-22.50 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: Any time we play a biotech stock we're dealing with a high-risk situation. MRX seems to be more of a drug company but we're still at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. Furthermore the most recent data puts short interest at more than 23% of MRX's 49.2 million-share float. That is a high-degree of short interest and raises the risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on November 18 at $26.08
Change since picked: - 0.17
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Zoll Medical - ZOLL - close: 25.17 chg: -0.69 stop: 27.01

ZOLL is off to an okay start. Shares continued lower and broke the 10-dma. We're playing ZOLL as a short with the stock's failed rally at the top of its wide $22.00-27.00 trading range. We are a little concerned that next week's healthcare conference might lift anything healthcare related but for now the trend is bearish. We're suggesting shorts here. We'll suggest taking profits at $24.10 and then again at $22.25. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $17 target. The most recent short interest is at 8% of the stock's small 20 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze, especially if ZOLL trades over $27.00.

Picked on January 03 at $25.86
Change since picked: - 0.69
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 257 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Advent Software - ADVS - close: 51.55 change: -2.18 stop: 51.90

ADVS tried to resist but in the last two hours of trading on Friday the stock plunged lower and past the $52.00 level. Shares hit our stop loss at $51.90. The breakdown under $52 and a number of moving averages is bearish. The next level of support looks like $50.00.

Picked on December 21 at $53.83 *gap open entry
Change since picked: - 2.28
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 245 thousand

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Fiserv - FISV - close: 53.42 change: -1.48 stop: 53.99

The market-wide sell-off hit FISV pretty hard. Shares broke down under the $54.00 level and hit our stop loss. The MACD on the daily chart just produced a new sell signal. The breakout over resistance near $56.00 proved to be a bull trap.

Picked on December 28 at $56.11 *triggered
Change since picked: - 2.69
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Ingles Markets - IMKTA - close: 23.68 chg: -0.80 stop: 23.95

IMKTA was no exception on Friday. Shares turned lower during the bloodletting. The stock lost 3.2% and closed under its 50-dma. Shares broke the $24.00 level and hit our stop loss at $23.95. The MACD on the daily chart has produced a new sell signal.

Picked on December 23 at $25.66
Change since picked: - 1.98
Earnings Date 12/03/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 81 thousand

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Sonoco Products - SON - cls: 30.78 chg: -1.39 stop: 31.95

It's the same story, different stock. SON lost 4.3% with Friday's market meltdown. Shares blew through technical support at its 100-dma and 50-dma. The move was worse than expected with SON gapping lower at $31.80. Our suggested stop loss was at $31.95.

Picked on December 20 at $33.36
Change since picked: - 2.58
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 587 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

Bob Evans Farms - BOBE - cls: 25.37 chg: -0.22 stop: 27.55

Target exceeded. BOBE spiked lower on Friday morning following Thursday's bearish breakdown. Our target was the $25.25-25.00 zone. We mentioned the $24.60 level as a potential target but we stuck with the $25 region. Friday's intraday low was $24.62. If the stock continues lower we would expect an oversold, multi-day bounce at the November lows.

Picked on December 16 at $29.01
Change since picked: - 3.64
Earnings Date 02/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 467 thousand
 

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