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Long Play Updates

ArthroCare - ARTC - close: 53.43 change: +1.39 stop: 48.49

Whoops! Looks like we forgot to send ARTC the memo. Shares did not cooperate with our plan to buy a dip. The relative strength today is encouraging but we don't feel like chasing it. Fueling the move was strength in the medical device markers and almost anything related to healthcare. The healthcare sector is normally seen as a safe haven play plus there is a huge J.P.Morgan conference this week highlighting the group. We're going to stick with our plan for now. Our suggested entry point to buy ARTC is the $50.50-49.50 zone. We will place our stop loss at $48.49 to start. Our short-term target is the $54.50-55.00 range, which looks like resistance with the 50-dma and 100-dma hovering nearby.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Intel Corp. - INTC - cls: 22.88 change: +0.21 stop: 22.29*new*

INTC did not cooperate with our plans to buy a dip either. The stock found support at $22.36, which is almost exactly where bulls bought the dip yesterday. INTC's management came out today and said they're not seeing a global slow down. While it's nice to hear there still seems to be a lot of uncertainty in this stock. We're going to get more aggressive with our entry point. Instead of trying to buy a dip near $22.00 we're going to suggest buying the stock here at $22.88 or pretty much anywhere in the $22.50-23.00 region. We'll adjust our stop loss to $22.29. Our target will be the $23.90-24.00 zone. We do not want to hold over the January 15th earnings report (still unconfirmed) and that only gives us six trading days. If INTC does not hit our trigger on Monday we might remove the play.

Picked on January 07 at $22.88
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 57 million

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Invest.Tech.Group - ITG - cls: 49.45 chg: +1.46 stop: 45.90

ITG continued to bounce as expected and shares posted a 3% gain on strong volume. The $50 level might offer some resistance so patient traders could try and time an entry on a pull back near $48.00. Our target is the $52.00-52.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late January earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $65 target.

Picked on January 06 at $47.99
Change since picked: + 1.46
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 606 thousand

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Move Inc. - MOVE - cls: 2.29 change: +0.03 stop: 2.14

MOVE did see a continuation of its bounce from Friday but it wasn't very convincing. Shares hit an intraday high of $2.35, which was enough to hit our trigger at $2.32 and open the play. Our target is the $2.65-2.75 range. I apologize. There was some content missing from our weekend comments. Here's what was missing: Just because this is a low dollar stock do not take too big of a position. Don't load up with a lot of shares just because you can. Maintain discipline on not letting any one position create too much risk for your trading account.

Picked on January 07 at $ 2.32 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.03
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Ryland Group - RYL - cls: 22.20 chg: -0.04 stop: 19.49

RYL managed a fractional bounce on Monday. We are going to stick with our plan and wait for a dip. RYL is trying to form a bottom with its sideways trading between $20 and $29. Odds are good that the stock will bounce again near support at $20.00. We're suggesting readers buy the dip in the $20.25-20.00 zone. We'll try and reduce our risk with a stop loss under the November low at $19.49. If we are triggered at $20.25 our short-term target is the $23.90-24.00 range. We won't have a lot of time since we plan to exit ahead of the late January earnings report.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million

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XTO Energy - XTO - close: 53.98 chg: +0.79 stop: 51.79

XTO bucked the trend in energy stocks today. Shares added 1.48% and did so on rising volume. The stock looks poised to move higher. We would use today's bounce as a new bullish entry point. More conservative traders or those who want to see more momentum can wait for another rally past $54.00. Our target is the $59.00-60.00 range.

Picked on January 03 at $54.15 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.17
Earnings Date 02/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million
 

Short Play Updates

Fist Community Bancorp - FCBP - cls: 37.99 chg: +0.49 stop: 41.26

The financials look like they want to bounce. The sector is oversold and due for a correction higher. FCBP could easily rebound back toward $40.00, which should be new resistance. Readers will want to do some profit taking now. A new failed rally under $40 could be used as a new entry point. Our first target is the $35.25-35.00 range. Our second target is the $32.00-30.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $30 target. FYI: We do not want to hold over the late January earnings report.

Picked on December 30 at $40.80
Change since picked: - 2.81
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 416 thousand

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Corning Inc. - GLW - cls: 22.16 change: -0.28 stop: 24.21

GLW continues to under perform. The stock lost 1.24% and did so on above average volume, which is bearish. If GLW does see an oversold bounce the $23 level should be resistance. A failed rally under $23.00 can be used as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $21.25-21.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late January earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $15.00 target. There was virtually zero short interest listed for GLW.

Picked on January 04 at $21.91 *triggered/gap down entry
Change since picked: - 0.75
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.7 million

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IAC Interactive - IACI - cls: 25.47 chg: +0.18 stop: 27.26

IACI hit new 52-week lows this morning at $24.94. The stock is short-term oversold and we are expecting a bounce. The stock should find resistance in the $26.00-26.50 zone. The stock has already hit our initial target in the $25.50-25.00 range. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. The Head & Shoulders pattern, if it follows through, is forecasting a target in the $22 region. Our second, more aggressive target will be the $22.50 level. The P&F chart is still bullish for now but is on the verge of a breakdown. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at about 4% of the 120 million-share float.

Picked on December 11 at $27.60
Change since picked: - 2.13
Earnings Date 02/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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Medicis Pharma - MRX - close: 26.01 change: +0.10 stop: 26.81

Just about anything healthcare, biotech and drug related was catching a bid today. The healthcare group is traditionally seen as a safe-haven play and the huge healthcare conference going on this week also spotlights the group for investors. MRX produced a minor bounce. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. More conservative traders may want to exit early to avoid or limit losses. We're waiting to see if the bearish trend of lower highs will hold. MRX is due to present at the big conference it on Tuesday. Our target is the $23.00-22.50 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $19 target. FYI: Any time we play a biotech stock we're dealing with a high-risk situation. MRX seems to be more of a drug company but we're still at risk that some FDA decision or some clinical trial news could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. Furthermore the most recent data puts short interest at more than 23% of MRX's 49.2 million-share float. That is a high-degree of short interest and raises the risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on November 18 at $26.08
Change since picked: - 0.07
Earnings Date 02/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Zoll Medical - ZOLL - close: 25.89 chg: +0.72 stop: 27.01

ZOLL is another stock that is probably getting a bump higher from the focus on healthcare and the big healthcare conference going on. A new all-time high and a 5% gain in stocks like BCR might also be influencing ZOLL. Look for a failed rally under resistance near $27.00 as a new entry point for shorts. We'll suggest taking profits at $24.10 and then again at $22.25. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $17 target. The most recent short interest is at 8% of the stock's small 20 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze, especially if ZOLL trades over $27.00.

Picked on January 03 at $25.86
Change since picked: + 0.03
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 257 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Cypress Semi - CY - close: 32.19 change: -2.45 stop: 33.99

CY just got crushed today. The stock broke down under support near $34.00 and lost 7% on the session after testing its 100-dma near $31.25. Semiconductors as a group were weak but today's move may be attributed to the heavy profit taking in the solar energy stocks. Shares of SunPower (SPWR), a subsidiary of CY, lost 6.6%. Our stop loss on CY was $33.99. Believe it or not but if you look at the chart for CY you will notice how the 100-dma has been consistent support in the past. It might be tough to swallow but a bounce from here would look like a new bullish entry point.

Picked on January 03 at $36.02
Change since picked: - 3.83
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.6 million
 

Closed Short Plays

Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 34.57 change: +0.09 stop: 38.26

Target achieved. GVA hit a new six-week low at $33.65 before bouncing into the green. Our target was the $34.00-33.00 range. Shares of GVA are oversold and due for a bigger rebound so be careful if you have not exited yet.

Picked on December 16 at $38.73
Change since picked: - 4.16
Earnings Date 02/11/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million
 

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