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Long Play Updates

Cepheid - CPHD - close: 30.80 change: -1.43 stop: 27.45

CPHD continues to be a relative strength leader but shares did hit some profit taking on Friday with a 4.4% decline. The action over the last two sessions is starting to look like a top but so far the bullish trend remains intact. The market's rebound appears to have ended abruptly so we would hesitate to open new bullish plays in this environment. However, we would still consider buying a dip in CPHD. Currently our plan is to buy a pull back into the $29.50-28.50 zone. More conservative trades may want to tighten their stops toward $28.00. We're leaving our stop loss at $27.45. Just be sure to wait for signs of a bounce before opening positions. We're going to list two targets. Our first target is the $32.00 mark. Our second target is the $34.00-35.00 range.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million


Excel Maritime - EXM - cls: 31.84 change: -0.48 stop: 29.39

Our enthusiasm to open bullish positions in EXM has cooled somewhat following the market turnaround on Friday. Given our expectation for the market to retest the recent lows we would strongly hesitate to open new positions here. We are going to keep the play on the newsletter but we're adjusting our suggested entry point and stop loss. Our new entry point to buy the dip in EXM is the $30.25-30.00 zone. Our stop loss will move down a few cents to $29.39. We're reducing our risk and hopefully we can slip in on a bounce near round-number support. Wait for that bounce! Our short-term target will be the $34.75-35.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim for the $37-40 region.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

Short Play Updates

Avery Dennison - AVY - close: 46.14 change: +0.22 stop: 48.55*new*

Shares of AVY spent Friday's session churning sideways. The stock remains oversold and due for a bigger bounce so we're not suggesting new short positions. Please note that we are adjusting our stop loss to $48.55. The stock has already hit our early target in the $45.15-45.00 zone. Readers should also note that we are adjusting our aggressive target to $44.15-44.00 instead of the $42.50 mark. The P&F chart is bearish with a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal and a $40 target. FYI: The most recent short interest was listed at 3.7% of the 97.3 million-share float.

Picked on January 13 at $48.50
Change since picked: - 2.36
Earnings Date 01/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

Closed Long Plays

Intel Corp. - INTC - cls: 20.00 change: -0.69 stop: 17.95

It's time to go. The Microsoft earnings gave tech stocks a pop on Friday morning but it quickly faded. Shares of INTC rose to $21.28 and then crashed back toward round-number support at $20.00. The move has painted a bearish reversal in the form of a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We are suggesting an early exit immediately. INTC has already surpassed our early target of $20.00 and gave us a decent shot at our more aggressive target in the $21.75-22.00 zone.

Picked on January 22 at $18.20 *triggered /exit 20.00
Change since picked: + 1.80
Earnings Date 01/15/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 70 million


Merrill Lynch - MER - cls: 54.96 change: -2.49 stop: 53.75

This was a tough decision. It really does look like MER has built a decent bottom over the last couple of weeks. Unfortunately, the broader market is showing too much weakness and we're expecting a retest of the lows. We're suggesting an early exit in MER now. Look for another bounce near $50.00 or a new breakout over $60.00 as potential bullish entry points.

Picked on January 23 at $58.05
Change since picked: - 3.09
Earnings Date 04/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 22.2 million


Semiconductor SPDR - XSD - cls: 39.30 change: -1.27 stop: 38.45

As traders we strive to be nimble and respond to what the market tells us. Friday's action in XSD says run! We are hitting the emergency exit button. XSD spiked higher on Friday morning and hit $41.29 but the ETF quickly reversed. The equity produced a big bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We were suggesting an entry point to buy it at $39.50 so the play is open but we want to close the play and cut our losses early. Look for another bounce in the $37.50 region before considering new bullish positions.

Picked on January 25 at $39.50 *triggered /exit 39.30
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 97 thousand

Closed Short Plays


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