Option Investor
Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version

Long Play Updates

Cepheid - CPHD - close: 31.34 change: +0.54 stop: 27.45

CPHD is just not cooperating with our attempts to buy a dip. The stock slipped to $30.32 intraday and then bounced. More aggressive traders might want to up their entry point toward $30.25-30.50. We're going to stick it out and wait for a pull back into the $29.50-28.50 for now. More conservative trades may want to tighten their stops toward $28.00. We're leaving our stop loss at $27.45. Just be sure to wait for signs of a bounce before opening positions. We're going to list two targets. Our first target is the $32.00 mark. Our second target is the $34.00-35.00 range.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

---

Excel Maritime - EXM - cls: 33.00 change: +1.16 stop: 29.39

You could argue that we're being too picky with our suggested entry points. We missed EXM today by 10 cents. The stock dipped to $30.35 and rallied sharply, up 3.6% today. Our suggested entry was the $30.25-30.00 zone. Missing the low today may mean we missed our chance. We would not chase it here. Our short-term target will be the $34.75-35.00 range. More aggressive traders could aim for the $37-40 region.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

---

Schering-Plough - SGP - cls: 19.64 change: +0.62 stop: 17.39

The move may not look like much on the chart but SGP managed a 3.2% bounce. More conservative traders may want to wait for a little more confirmation and look for a rise over $20.00 before opening bullish positions. We're suggesting long positions here at current levels. Our target is the $22.00-22.50 range.

Picked on January 27 at $19.02
Change since picked: + 0.62
Earnings Date 02/12/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.2 million
 

Short Play Updates

Avery Dennison - AVY - close: 47.48 change: +1.34 stop: 48.55

We have been warning readers for days that AVY was poised to bounce. Shares finally did so today with a 2.9% gain. The $48.00 level is short-term resistance. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The stock has already hit our early target in the $45.15-45.00 zone. Readers should also note that we are adjusting our aggressive target to $44.15-44.00 instead of the $42.50 mark. The P&F chart is bearish with a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal and a $40 target. FYI: The most recent short interest was listed at 3.7% of the 97.3 million-share float.

Picked on January 13 at $48.50
Change since picked: - 1.02
Earnings Date 01/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

---

CBRL Group - CBRL - cls: 30.17 change: +0.91 stop: 30.35

It's not looking good for shorts in CBRL. The stock managed to push its way back above the $30.00 level and is just below resistance in the $30.20-30.25 range. If the major indices see any sort of follow through on today's bounce then odds are good that CBRL will hit our stop loss at $30.35. If CBRL turns south then look for a move under $29.50 or $29.25 as a new entry point for shorts. More conservative traders could wait for a move under $28.50 first. There is potential support near $26.00 but our target is the 25.25-25.00 range. Warning: the latest data put short interest at 20% of the stock's small 22.2 million-share float. That raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 27 at $29.26
Change since picked: + 0.91
Earnings Date 02/20/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 674 thousand

---

Chico's FAS - CHS - close: 9.08 change: +0.68 stop: 9.21

Ouch! CHS felt the short squeeze today. The stock rallied 8.1% and managed to close over what should have been round-number resistance at $9.00. The stock is still trading under last week's highs but it wouldn't take much to push CHS past those highs (9.15) and that is where the short squeeze could rally get painful. We're not suggesting new positions. Readers may want to tighten their stops if they did open positions today. We would wait for a new decline under $8.80 before considering new shorts. Our target was the $7.10-7.00 range. FYI: The latest data put short interest at 7.7% of the stock's 175 million-share float.

Picked on January 27 at $ 8.40
Change since picked: + 0.68
Earnings Date 03/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million

---

Fastenal Co. - FAST - close: 40.08 chg: +1.01 stop: 41.31

The bounce today is a danger sign for the bears. A breakout over the $41.00-42.00 zone would be a bullish buy signal even though FAST may still have resistance at the 100-dma and 200-dma still overhead. At this point wait for a new decline under $39.00 before considering new shorts. Our first target is the $35.50-35.00 zone. Our second, more aggressive target is the $33.00-32.50 range. FYI: Traders should note that the most recent data lists short interest at 7.2% of FAST's 124 million-share float.

Picked on January 27 at $39.07
Change since picked: + 1.01
Earnings Date 01/22/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million

---

Hasbro Inc. - HAS - close: 24.57 change: +0.62 stop: 25.11

HAS produced a 2.5% rebound and looks ready to challenge resistance near $25.00 soon. Wait for the rally to fail before considering new shorts. Our target is $22.10-22.00. FYI: Short interest is at 5.3% of the stock's 131.1 million-share float.

Picked on January 27 at $23.95
Change since picked: + 0.62
Earnings Date 02/11/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million

---

Starwood Hotels - HOT - close: 43.59 change: +1.06 stop: 45.05

Shares of HOT also look poised to challenge last week's highs. Wait for the bounce to roll over before considering new shorts. This is going to be a very short-term play. HOT is due to report earnings on Thursday morning, January 31st, before the opening bell. We do not want to hold over the event so we will plan to exit on Wednesday at the closing bell unless shares hit our stop or target first. We are aiming for a pull back into the $39.00-38.50 zone at which point it may be time to switch to bullish positions. FYI: Short interest is listed at just 1.9% of the stock's 197.8 million-share float.

Picked on January 27 at $42.53
Change since picked: + 1.06
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

---

Korn/Ferry Intl. - KFY - close: 15.49 change: +0.36 stop: 16.05

We are suggesting patience here. Look for the rally to run into trouble near $16.00 resistance. A failure there would be the spot to open new bearish positions. Our first target is the $13.25-13.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target is the $12.25-12.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart points to a $6.50 target. FYI: It is important to note that KFY has above average short interest at 11.2% of the stock's 46 million-share float.

Picked on January 27 at $15.13
Change since picked: + 0.36
Earnings Date 03/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 701 thousand


---

Limited Brands - LTD - close: 17.90 chg: +0.83 stop: 18.05

Warning! The rebound in LTD was very strong today. The stock produced a 4.8% gain. Furthermore LTD closed above last week's highs near $17.80. That is a very bad sign for the bears even through LTD appears to have additional resistance near $18.00 and its 50-dma. If the market sees any sort of follow through tomorrow we would expect to be stopped out at $18.05. Nimble traders could go long at $18.05 and target a run toward $20.00 and its 100-dma. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target was the $15.25-15.00 zone. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 7.7% of the stock's 302 million-share float.

Picked on January 27 at $17.07
Change since picked: + 0.83
Earnings Date 02/27/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million

---

Macy's - M - close: 25.70 chg: +0.75 stop: 26.05

It's the same story, different stock. Shares of M rallied 3% and they're close to testing overhead resistance near $26.00. Wait for some sign of a failure before considering new shorts. Nimble traders might actually want to consider going long M on a breakout over $26.00 with a $29-30 target. We wanted to capture a drop back toward the $22.00 region with the bearish strategy. Aggressive traders could aim for the January lows near $21.00. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3% of the 431 million-share float.

Picked on January 27 at $24.95
Change since picked: + 0.75
Earnings Date 02/26/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.8 million

---

NII Holdings - NIHD - close: 41.64 chg: +2.18 stop: 43.01

Yup, you guessed it. Same story here. NIHD bounced with the market and short covering pushed the move to a 5.5% gain. Traders may want to lower their stop loss toward last week's high at $42.72 or the 10-dma at $42.40. We're not suggesting new positions at this. Wait for some sort of failed rally to appear. We are listing two targets. Our first target is $35.50-35.00. Our second, more aggressive target is the $32.00-30.00 zone. The Point & figure chart suggests a $19 target. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 4.1% of the 171 million-share float.

Picked on January 27 at $39.46
Change since picked: + 2.18
Earnings Date 02/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.6 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

Premier Investor Play Update Archives