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Long Play Updates

Cepheid - CPHD - close: 30.31 change: -0.92 stop: 27.45

CPHD is getting closer to our suggested entry point in the $29.50-28.50 zone. Considering the market's bearish reversal today more patient traders may want to sit back and try to catch a dip in CPHD near $28.50-28.00 instead. The $28.50-29.00 region should be support at the bottom of its rising channel but $28.00 is another level of support. More conservative trades may want to tighten their stops toward $28.00. We're leaving our stop loss at $27.45. Just be sure to wait for signs of a bounce before opening positions. We're going to list two targets. Our first target is the $32.00 mark. Our second target is the $34.00-35.00 range.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million


Schering-Plough - SGP - cls: 19.36 change: +0.32 stop: 17.39

Our enthusiasm for bullish positions on SGP is still waning. The company's partner in Vytorin is MRK and MRK reported earnings today that were better than expected. Yet shares of MRK sold off anyway. While this is an aggressive play readers might want to tighten their stop losses significantly. At this point we would hesitate to open new positions although a rally over $20.00 might change our minds. Readers may want to raise their stop losses. Our target is the $22.00-22.50 range.

Picked on January 27 at $19.02
Change since picked: + 0.41
Earnings Date 02/12/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.2 million

Short Play Updates

Fastenal Co. - FAST - close: 39.90 chg: -0.16 stop: 41.31

Today's action in FAST looks like a new entry point for shorts although more conservative traders may want to wait for a new decline under $39.00 before opening positions. Our first target is the $35.50-35.00 zone. Our second, more aggressive target is the $33.00-32.50 range. FYI: Traders should note that the most recent data lists short interest at 7.2% of FAST's 124 million-share float.

Picked on January 27 at $39.07
Change since picked: + 0.83
Earnings Date 01/22/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million

Closed Long Plays


Closed Short Plays

Hasbro Inc. - HAS - close: 24.57 change: +0.10 stop: 25.11

The post-fed rally in HAS was just a little too sharp. Shares hit $25.20 and would have stopped us out at $25.11. We would keep an eye on HAS for another breakdown under $24.00 or $23.60 as another entry point for bearish positions.

Picked on January 27 at $23.95
Change since picked: + 0.78
Earnings Date 02/11/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million


Starwood Hotels - HOT - close: 42.90 change: -0.94 stop: 45.05

We have run out of time for our bearish play on HOT. The company reports earnings tomorrow morning. It was our plan to exit at the close today to avoid holding over the report. The action today did look bearish and a new decline under $42 might be used as a new entry point but we would only aim for the January lows. FYI: LEH slashed their price target on HOT today.

Picked on January 27 at $42.53
Change since picked: + 0.37
Earnings Date 01/31/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million


Korn/Ferry Intl. - KFY - close: 15.61 change: +0.48 stop: 16.05

KFY rallied sharply higher this morning thanks to strong earnings numbers from RHI last night. Yet the morning rally couldn't make it past resistance at $16.00 in KFY. Unfortunately, the post-fed short covering was enough to hit our stop loss at $16.05 closing the play. We would keep an eye on KFY for a new decline under $15.00-14.70 as a potential entry point for new shorts.

Picked on January 27 at $15.13
Change since picked: + 0.48
Earnings Date 03/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 701 thousand


NII Holdings - NIHD - close: 42.28 chg: -0.33 stop: 43.01

NIHD rallied again this morning and quickly hit our stop loss at $43.01. The overall trend in NIHD is still bearish and we would keep an eye on it for further opportunities.

Picked on January 27 at $39.46
Change since picked: + 2.82
Earnings Date 02/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.6 million

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