Option Investor
Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

Printer friendly version

Long Play Updates

Acuity Brands - AYI - cls: 44.72 chg: +0.07 stop: 43.49

Shares of AYI held support near its 100-dma for the second day in a row. This looks like a new entry point to buy the stock but readers may want to wait for a new rise over $45.35 just to confirm direction first. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart looks very bullish with a $62 target and a breakout over resistance.

Picked on February 5 at $45.50 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.78
Earnings Date 04/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 857 thousand

Short Play Updates

Sovran Self Storage - SSS - cls: 39.06 chg: -0.31 stop: 40.41

We still can't find a confirmed earnings date but what we do see suggests that SSS will report on Wednesday, February 13th after the market's closing bell. If we don't see any news in the next couple of days that counters this date we will plan on exiting at the closing bell on Wednesday to avoid holding over the report. Friday's weakness does look like a new entry point but a new breakdown under $38.00 would look more attractive. Considering our time frame we're adjusting our target to $35.50-35.00. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $32 target. The most recent data puts short interest at 7.2% of the 20.99 million-share float.

Picked on February 06 at $37.90 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.16
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 170 thousand


Terra Nitrogen - TNH - cls: 126.20 chg: +1.25 stop: 137.26

Looking at historical prices between Thursday's close ($129.40) and Friday's close ($126.20) it looks like a loss of $3.20. However, if you adjust for a $4.45 dividend most of quote services are listing TNH up $1.25 on the day. The trading action on Friday was still bearish with the intraday bounce failing. We remain bearish and would still consider new shorts here or on another failed rally near $131-132. Our target is the $115.00 level. If you want you could target the 200-dma currently rising toward $113. TNH has consistent support at the 200-dma and we suspect that bulls will buy the dip again. We want to short it now, cover at $115.00, and then buy a dip at the 200-dma with a stop loss at $108.95, which would be under the January low. Then we ride the bounce back to $124.00-125.00. FYI: The P&F chart is very bearish with a triangle breakdown sell signal and a $112 target but the P&F chart is also showing some support near $122. Meanwhile the latest data puts short interest at 3% of the very (VERY) small float of 4.8 million share. A 3% short interest is not normally that worrisome but that is a very small float and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 07 at $129.40
Change since picked: - 3.20
Earnings Date 02/070/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 455 thousand


Xerox Corp. - XRX - cls: 15.33 chg: +0.23 stop: 16.01

XRX displayed some relative strength on Friday, which was something of a surprise. However, short-term resistance near $15.50 held. This is something of a tough spot for bears. The market is arguably short-term oversold and due for a bounce. I think the bounce will fail in a day or two but that could carry XRX toward resistance near $16.00. We would wait for another failed rally pattern or a new decline under $14.90 before opening new short positions in XRX. Our short-term target is the $13.55 mark. XRX's Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $10.50 target. The most recent data listed short interest at just 0.6% of the float.

Picked on February 07 at $14.95 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.38
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million

Closed Long Plays


Closed Short Plays


Premier Investor Play Update Archives