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Long Play Updates

Acuity Brands - AYI - cls: 45.38 chg: +0.66 stop: 43.49

AYI bounced from support near its 100-dma for the third day in a row. This looks like a new bullish entry point if the market can continue to rebound. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart looks very bullish with a $62 target and a breakout over resistance.

Picked on February 5 at $45.50 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.12
Earnings Date 04/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 857 thousand


Expedia - EXPE - close: 24.74 chg: -0.37 stop; 23.39

After three days of gains EXPE looked ripe for some profit taking and shares dipped to 24.23 before bouncing back this afternoon. We were able to catch the low with a suggested entry point in the $24.25-24.00 zone. Broken resistance near $24.00 should be new support. Our target will be the $27.00-27.50 zone.

Picked on February 11 at $24.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.49
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million


General Moly - GMO - close: 9.97 change: -0.11 stop: 9.18

We don't see any changes from our weekend comments for GMO. More aggressive traders may want to buy the stock over $10.25. We see potential resistance at $10.50 and its 50-dma so we are suggesting a trigger to buy GMO at $10.55. If triggered we have two targets. Our first target is the $12.40-12.50 zone near its December highs. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.90-14.00 range. We are starting with an aggressive (wide) stop. You may want to adjust yours.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 665 thousand


Microsoft - MSFT - close: 28.21 change: -0.35 stop: 27.39

MSFT dipped back to the $28.00 level on fears that they might overpay for Yahoo (YHOO) following news that YHOO had rejected MSFT's bid for the company. Investors bought the dip at $27.91. This looks like another bullish entry point to buy the stock. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We are suggesting bullish positions now in the $27.50-29.00 (maybe $30) zone. We have two targets. Our four to six week target is the $31.85-32.00 range. We are considering a longer-term target in the $34 region.

Picked on February 10 at $28.56
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 90.7 million

Short Play Updates

Sovran Self Storage - SSS - cls: 38.40 chg: -0.66 stop: 40.05*new*

Shares of SSS continue to look bearish, especially following today's failed rally near $40 and its 50-dma. We are adjusting our stop loss to $40.05. We are planning on exiting at the closing bell on Wednesday to avoid holding over the company's earnings report. Considering our time frame we're adjusting our target to $35.50-35.00. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $32 target. The most recent data puts short interest at 7.2% of the 20.99 million-share float.

Picked on February 06 at $37.90 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.50
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 170 thousand


Terra Nitrogen - TNH - cls: 127.60 chg: +1.40 stop: 137.26

Shares of TNH dipped to $122.20 before bouncing back into the green today. The trend still looks bearish and the intraday chart shows how the bulls failed to push shares past the $130 level. We remain short-term bearish on TNH but we're turning more bullish again on the fertilizer industry as a whole. Stocks like MON, MOS and POT all look bullish and poised for breakouts. TNH is definitely under performing its peers. Part of the risk in the short side of this play is that if those stocks do breakout then TNH might reverse higher. The 200-dma continues to rise and is now at $113.33. We are going to adjust our bearish target from $115 to $117.50-115.00. We are suggesting readers cover their shorts and then buy the dip at the 200-dma. We'll use a buy entry point in the $116.00-114.00 zone. If TNH hits our entry point to buy it we'll use a stop loss at $109.45. We are also adjusting our short-term bullish targets (if triggered at $116) from just one target at $124 to two targets. One at $124 and one at $134. Meanwhile the latest data puts short interest at 3% of the very (VERY) small float of 4.8 million share. A 3% short interest is not normally that worrisome but that is a very small float and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 07 at $129.40
Change since picked: - 1.80
Earnings Date 02/070/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 455 thousand


United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 71.41 chg: +0.83 stop: 74.05

UPS bounced from the $70 level in spite of another sharp rise in crude oil today. This looks like another entry point for shorts, especially if shares start to roll over under its 10-dma and the $72.00 level. More conservative traders may want to consider a tighter stop loss near $72.00 to reduce their risk. Our target is the $66.00-65.00 zone.

Picked on February 10 at $70.58
Change since picked: + 0.83
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million


Xerox Corp. - XRX - cls: 15.28 chg: -0.05 stop: 16.01

XRX failed to see any follow through on Friday's bounce higher. We remain bearish. Readers can choose to short it here or on a new decline below $14.90. More conservative traders might want to consider a stop loss near $15.50. Our short-term target is the $13.55 mark. XRX's Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $10.50 target. The most recent data listed short interest at just 0.6% of the float.

Picked on February 07 at $14.95 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.33
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million

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